Wrexham AFC, the historic Welsh club, hasn`t played in the second tier of English football since 1982. Now, promotion to League One is within their grasp as the season nears its end. However, after a recent 2-2 draw against Cambridge United, a team fighting relegation, their promotion destiny is no longer entirely in their hands. This draw occurred on a night when their rivals missed an opportunity to give Wrexham control of the promotion battle.
With only six games remaining, Phil Parkinson`s Wrexham squad currently holds second place in the league standings. Birmingham City leads the league and appears to be heading towards the Championship, sitting 11 points ahead of Wrexham with two additional games played. The race for the second automatic promotion spot is shaping up to be fiercely competitive.
Wycombe Wanderers, despite taking 30 shots against Shrewsbury Town, who are at the bottom of the league, failed to score and had to settle for a draw. Meanwhile, both Charlton Athletic and Stockport County gained ground on Tuesday, setting the stage for an exciting conclusion to the season on May 3rd.
League One Automatic Promotion Race
| Team | Pld. | W | D | L | GD | Pts. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Birmingham | 38 | 27 | 8 | 3 | 39 | 89 |
| 2 | Wrexham | 40 | 23 | 9 | 8 | 24 | 78 |
| 3 | Wycombe | 39 | 21 | 12 | 6 | 29 | 75 |
| 4 | Charlton | 40 | 21 | 9 | 10 | 19 | 72 |
| 5 | Stockport | 40 | 20 | 11 | 9 | 22 | 71 |
| 6 | Bolton | 39 | 19 | 6 | 14 | 4 | 63 |
The top two teams in the league will secure automatic promotion to the Championship, while teams finishing third through sixth will compete in the playoffs. The playoffs consist of a two-legged semifinal, followed by the final at Wembley Stadium on May 25th.
Wrexham`s Upcoming Fixtures
- April 5: Burton Albion (Home)
- April 12: Wigan (Away)
- April 18: Bristol Rovers (Home)
- April 21: Blackpool (Away)
- April 26: Charlton (Home)
- May 3: Lincoln (Away)
What Wrexham Needs for Promotion
Wrexham`s path to automatic promotion isn`t guaranteed. If Wycombe wins all of their remaining seven matches, even if Wrexham achieves a perfect win record, they would only tie on points. In such a scenario, goal difference would be the deciding factor, where Wycombe currently holds a five-goal advantage and has also scored more goals overall.
However, relying on such a consistent winning streak from Wycombe may be unrealistic. The promotion outcome is more likely to depend on key matchups for both teams. Wrexham`s games against Burton Albion and Bristol Rovers should theoretically be easier, considering the significant point difference between the teams. Nevertheless, at this stage of the season, facing teams fighting to avoid relegation can be particularly challenging.
Perhaps the most crucial games for both Wycombe and Wrexham are against Charlton in late April. Charlton will play both Wycombe and Wrexham within five days. If Charlton wins either of these matches, it could significantly alter the promotion landscape. Winning both games would put Charlton firmly into the promotion conversation.
Wrexham`s Rapid Ascent: A Historic Rise?
Should Wrexham successfully fend off Wycombe and other contenders, they would achieve an impressive three promotions in just three seasons. After a 15-year absence, they rejoined the English Football League in 2022-23 and immediately followed that up with a comfortable promotion from League Two, finishing second.
While several English football clubs have achieved three consecutive promotions through the football pyramid – with Truro City and Shaw Lane even achieving four – none have risen so quickly through the highest professional tiers. For example, FC United of Manchester climbed three tiers after being founded in 2005, but they reached the Northern Premier League Premier Division, which is at level seven of the pyramid.
Wrexham`s achievement is more significant because they are competing at higher professional levels as they aim for the second tier. The National League in 2022-23, as well as Leagues Two and One, are composed entirely of professional clubs. Notably, Wrexham, under the ownership of Ryan Reynolds and Rob McElhenney, has had the financial resources to dominate at each level. This raises a key question regarding their potential Championship future.
Can Wrexham Compete in the Championship?
Looking ahead, consider the possibility of Wrexham achieving yet another promotion to the Premier League. While back-to-back promotions from League One to the Premier League have occurred, as Ipswich Town demonstrated last season, it is typically accomplished by established football giants. Despite Wrexham`s growing global fanbase since the takeover, the Championship is a financially demanding league.
In League Two, Wrexham`s annual wage bill exceeded $14 million, and this figure has undoubtedly increased with the signings of former Premier League players like Jay Rodriguez and Matty James. Even with increased salaries, a newly promoted, wealthy club like Wrexham might still spend only a third of what the wealthiest Championship clubs allocate to wages. Wrexham director Humprey Ker has suggested that their salary expenditure might need to quadruple to remain competitive after promotion.
This significant investment may be necessary because Wrexham`s performance metrics suggest they are not yet fully prepared for the Championship challenges posed by teams like Southampton and Leicester. Parkinson`s team has scored 56 goals from 48.1 expected goals (xG) and conceded 32 goals from 42.4 expected goals against (xG). Although they are currently second in League One, their non-penalty xG difference ranks them ninth in the league.
These statistics might not strongly indicate Wrexham`s immediate promotion prospects or their ability to survive in the Championship if promoted. However, since 2020, Wrexham has consistently shown a capacity to rise to challenges. If they do achieve promotion from League One, it is expected that the financial resources of the Championship will be used to ensure Wrexham`s continued presence there.
