The 2025 offseason presents a limited pool of high-caliber free agents alongside a rapidly increasing salary cap. This situation makes Brian Burke`s famous remark, “the biggest mistakes get made on July 1,” potentially more relevant than ever.
Mitch Marner is the free agent attracting the most attention this year. There`s a considerable drop in talent compared to the next group, which includes Matt Duchene, Sam Bennett, John Tavares, Brock Boeser, and Aaron Ekblad. This contrasts sharply with July 1, 2026, a date that could see major stars like Connor McDavid, Kirill Kaprizov, Jack Eichel, Artemi Panarin, Kyle Connor, and John Carlson become available. While some of these players may extend with their current teams, the potential for a strong 2026 free agent class should make general managers hesitant to sign overly expensive contracts on July 1, 2025.
The scarcity of valuable players in 2025 increases the likelihood of teams overpaying for contracts. To succeed and win the Stanley Cup, teams need players who outperform their salaries and must avoid inefficient deals. While tax-free states offer some financial benefits, many elite players still provide value significantly exceeding the `tax discount` on their contract.
For instance, Sam Reinhart might have earned $10 million annually on the open market but accepted $8.625 million to stay with the Florida Panthers. My analysis suggests Reinhart`s true value is closer to $12.6 million, meaning Florida gains approximately $2.6 million in value beyond the tax advantage. Similar scenarios apply to players like Brandon Hagel, Nikita Kucherov, Thomas Harley, and Shea Theodore.
In states with income tax, elite players such as Cale Makar, Adam Fox, Seth Jarvis, and Nico Hischier are also outperforming their contracts. The most striking examples might be in Edmonton, where Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Evan Bouchard, and Zach Hyman are delivering value significantly above their contract cost. Even Draisaitl`s substantial future contract is expected to be efficient. For Evan Bouchard, any contract below $9.5 million AAV would likely be considered efficient.
Reports indicate Mitch Marner expects around $14 million per year. However, an efficient contract for a player of his profile would likely be closer to $12 million. Sam Bennett, another player represented by the same agent, is reportedly seeking approximately $9 million AAV. This would place a player whose career high is 51 points on par with an elite second-line center`s salary, despite producing closer to a low-end second-liner or high-end third-liner. While Marner`s regular-season value and Bennett`s playoff performances are valid considerations, teams aiming to contend cannot afford to pay these players roughly 10% above their market value.
Given Toronto`s current salary structure, re-signing Marner would likely hinder long-term success by making it difficult to balance the roster effectively. If Marner prioritizes playing for a winning team, contract efficiency becomes crucial. Applying the standard of efficiency seen in Draisaitl`s upcoming contract – a comparison Marner`s representation reportedly uses – anything over $12 million would restrict a team`s ability to contend, assuming Marner elevates his playoff performance to Draisaitl`s level, which he has not done yet. Marner would need to sign for approximately $10 million AAV to provide valuable contract efficiency comparable to players like Reinhart, Kucherov, and Kaprizov.
The need for a significant roster change in Toronto has become increasingly apparent. Despite past opportunities for major trades that didn`t materialize, the Maple Leafs now face the reality of potentially losing a superstar-caliber player for nothing. However, extending Marner on an inefficient contract, particularly considering playoff performance, is not a financially sound option. Here’s an alternative path forward.
With the contracts for Marner and John Tavares expiring, the Leafs have significant cap flexibility. They cannot replace Marner`s value with a single player but can reallocate resources across the lineup.
Tavares is expected to re-sign in Toronto, with a rumored AAV around $5 million. This would be an efficient contract for a middle-six center who scored 38 goals in the 2024-25 season. The Leafs should aim for a long-term deal for restricted free agent Matthew Knies, perhaps in the range of $8.5 million AAV, rather than a bridge deal. The combined cost of Knies and Tavares at these figures would be less than Marner`s rumored demand, and their combined value could outweigh Marner`s individual value.
Toronto should anticipate Easton Cowan contributing in a middle-six role on his entry-level contract next season. It seems almost necessary for Toronto GM Brad Treliving to trade at least two players from the group including David Kampf, Calle Jarnkrok, Max Domi, and Nick Robertson. The cap space freed up could be used to sign players like Matt Duchene, Brad Marchand, or Pius Suter, who could provide considerably more value in elevated roles.
These roster adjustments could help Toronto build three effective forward lines. The Florida Panthers` third line was a deciding factor in their series win over the Leafs, largely because efficient contracts higher up the Panthers` roster allowed for a more balanced team approach.
Regarding the Panthers, there are rumors of the Leafs` interest in Sam Bennett. While the appeal is understandable, it`s important to remember Bennett`s performance before joining Florida. As Flames GM, Treliving traded Bennett away because he hadn`t found consistent success. Bennett fits well in Florida, but much of his value there comes from physical play and `extracurricular activities` rather than offensive output. If these activities were to face stricter penalties, their value would diminish.
Consider that Tavares scored 38 goals and 74 points this season and is likely to sign for around $5 million. Bennett recorded a career-high 51 points this season. Although Bennett is younger, signing him to a contract worth 1.5 times Tavares` salary until he reaches Tavares` age – having produced 0.68 points per game in Florida and 0.48 points per game career-wide – would be a significant risk.
Florida`s reluctance to pay more than $7 million per year for Bennett, which would already be slightly higher than ideal, is understandable and a signal the Maple Leafs should heed given Florida`s recent success. A $7.5 million AAV for Bennett would be inefficient but potentially manageable if the Leafs are confident his physical style won`t draw more attention and penalties in Toronto`s market. However, if Bennett`s camp pushes for more, the Leafs should explore other options. Targeting Pius Suter or Matt Duchene in free agency, or even orchestrating a trade like acquiring Mason Marchment from Dallas (a theoretical example), could be part of a more balanced roster strategy.
Regardless of the specific players acquired or signed, the Maple Leafs need to improve their forward depth and avoid signing inefficient contracts. The team currently has too many such deals, and they should work to move away from several. The best teams don`t rely on just one or two star players for sustained success; this holds true even for the Oilers, although having McDavid and Draisaitl certainly helps.
Instead, consistently successful teams thrive because their top players exceed expectations based on their contracts, and management acquires depth players who contribute quality minutes, leading to a more balanced roster. Current examples include Florida`s effective third line and Edmonton`s depth contributors like Corey Perry, Jake Walman, and Connor Brown. Dallas`s ability to acquire a superstar like Mikko Rantanen was facilitated by the efficient contracts held by players like Roope Hintz, Thomas Harley, and Matt Duchene.
Toronto must adopt a ruthless approach, similar to the Tampa Bay Lightning during their championship runs or the Vegas Golden Knights since their inception.
If a player is unwilling to sign a contract that aligns with the team`s requirements for success, they should not remain a Maple Leaf. Granting significant trade protection to anyone outside the top six forwards or top four defensemen must cease. While limited no-trade clauses for third-line players might be acceptable, the practice of giving any level of trade protection to bottom-pair defenders or players like David Kampf, Calle Jarnkrok, and Ryan Reaves must end. These protections restrict the team`s flexibility to make necessary roster changes, especially when such players are relatively easy to replace each summer.
For the Leafs to win, they must prioritize contract efficiency above all else. This will likely mean sacrificing pure talent in the short term to build the kind of balanced, long-term sustainable contender that has proven successful for other organizations.
