I`d like to see Connor McDavid finally lift the Stanley Cup. His impressive collection of regular-season awards—five scoring titles, three Hart Trophies, four NHLPA MVP honors—deserves the ultimate prize, like trading smaller rewards for a big one at a fair. He`s spent a decade trying to lead the Edmonton Oilers to their first Cup since 1990, and those fans would love a celebration with him at the center. I want him to erase the memory of looking completely spent after Game 7 last year, his spirit seemingly drained by a series so wild emotionally that he was named playoff MVP moments after losing the final. I want the lazy criticism that a “real” hockey deity “never won the Cup” to disappear for him, just as it did for stars like Alex Ovechkin and Nathan MacKinnon. I long for that explosive moment when he finally gets his hands on the trophy. The king should have his coronation.
Unfortunately, my desires don`t align with what the Florida Panthers are prepared to allow McDavid. They denied him the Stanley Cup last season. And despite bookmakers and most analysts favoring McDavid this time, they`re going to do it again in this Stanley Cup Final rematch. Here are five reasons why the Panthers are likely to repeat as champions.
Florida is Stronger Than Last Season`s Cup Winner
It`s true that the Oilers have improved since last season. Their roster is deeper and more cohesive, scoring more goals (4.06 per game) and significantly improving their 5-on-5 defense (1.89 goals allowed per 60 minutes, down from 2.55). Their ability to shut down opponents late in games has been notable, as seen in their recent wins against the Dallas Stars. They were minus-6 in the third period last postseason but are plus-11 this year. Their only regression is the penalty kill.
However, the Panthers have also gotten better, *much* better, which is concerning for their opponents. Florida has a plus-27 goal differential this postseason (through 17 games), up from plus-11 last year. They`re scoring more (3.88) and allowing fewer goals (2.29). Their 5-on-5 scoring improved significantly (3.53 goals per 60 minutes from 2.39). Their power play is better, and the penalty kill is similar.
They also made impactful additions mid-season, notably Seth Jones on defense and Brad Marchand on the third line. Last year`s second pairing of Niko Mikkola and Brandon Montour was decent (49% shot attempts, 1.84 GF/60, 2.03 GA/60). Mikkola paired with Jones this year is a clear upgrade (56% shot attempts, 4.14 GF/60, 1.69 GA/60). Jones isn`t the only factor; Mikkola himself has elevated his game, defending better and showing surprising speed for his size.
Marchand`s addition transformed the third line with Anton Lundell and Eetu Luostarinen. This line now controls 53% of shot attempts, scores 4.2 goals per 60 minutes, and allows only 0.82 goals per 60. Marchand, Luostarinen, and Lundell are producing points and providing incredible depth. Solidifying the third line allows the top-six to remain consistent with the Barkov-Reinhart and Bennett-Tkachuk duos, featuring clutch scorers like Carter Verhaeghe and analytics favorites like Evan Rodrigues on the wings.
Beyond stats, the Panthers exude the calm confidence of champions, having already proven they can win it all.
Bobrovsky Against Skinner
Both goalies had inconsistent starts to the playoffs before hitting dominant streaks in the later rounds. Skinner was even benched before regaining the net due to an injury to Calvin Pickard and has been excellent since Game 4 against Vegas (.944 save %, 1.41 GAA, three shutouts). Bobrovsky also struggled early but became dominant after a Game 4 shutout against Toronto (.944 save %, 1.34 GAA, two shutouts).
Bobrovsky`s chaotic performance in last year`s final ended with a series-clinching 23-save Game 7, cementing his “Playoff Bob” reputation. Analytically, both were near replacement level overall, but Bobrovsky (2.35 goals saved above expected) has a slight edge over Skinner (1.89) in their recent five games.
Skinner is playing well enough that he shouldn`t cost Edmonton the series. However, Bobrovsky, if he maintains his “Playoff Bob” form, has the potential to *win* the series for Florida. That`s the crucial difference.
Road Warriors
Edmonton having home-ice advantage this year is a key change, but it might actually benefit the Panthers. Florida is exceptional on the road, with an 8-2 record (tied for sixth-best in NHL playoff history with minimum eight games). Their road scoring average (4.80 goals per game) would be the highest in Stanley Cup history. Their impressive plus-27 goal differential this postseason? It entirely comes from road games (48 goals for, 21 against). They are even at home (18 for, 18 against).
Defender Gustav Forsling described it as an “us against the world” mentality.
Two factors explain their road success: First, they embrace a simple, direct offensive game. As Carter Verhaeghe put it, “Our mindset is just play as simple as we can. Get the puck deep, get on their defense and forecheck, which is our strength.” Second, they relish silencing the opposing crowd. “It`s fun when you`re on the road and it goes quiet. It feels like we`re doing our job,” Verhaeghe said.
Aleksander Barkov
While Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl can single-handedly dominate games and series (McDavid had nine points in five games against Dallas), Florida has a player who impacts the game just as profoundly: Aleksander Barkov. He doesn`t get the same fanfare as McDavid, Draisaitl, Matthews, MacKinnon, or Crosby. He`s only topped 90 points once, though his points-per-game rate (1.11) since 2017 ranks 12th, between Crosby and Makar. He`s not the most talkative or flamboyant player (coach Paul Maurice jokes he won`t have a podcast).
While others are Hart Trophy winners, Barkov is a Selke Trophy player, recently winning his third award as the league`s best defensive forward. Few players win both; Barkov`s highest MVP finish was sixth. Yet, he`s just as much of a game-changer, though his influence often starts in the defensive end. Against Edmonton last postseason, the Panthers outscored the Oilers 5-2 with Barkov on the ice at 5-on-5, controlling most shot attempts and scoring chances.
He can create offense out of nothing with his elite puck control and large build. The series-clinching goal against Carolina exemplifies this.
Evan Rodrigues noted after Game 5 that the goal “speaks to who [Barkov] is as a person.” He added, “He`s so even-keeled. Doesn`t get too high, doesn`t get too low, and just when games get intense and very emotional, he`s able to play his game and just do the right things over and over again.” This leads to the final key point.
They Take What Edmonton Gives Them
This might be an exaggeration, but I believe the Panthers are strategically built to counter the Oilers. They can match Edmonton`s scoring power. They can defend with the best teams in the NHL. They have impactful stars and effective role players. They aren`t fazed by hostile road environments. They are well-coached. They play with physicality, swagger, and antagonism, capable of both giving and receiving punishment.
But they also possess a crucial trait of great champions: they are willing to win either on their preferred terms or by adapting to whatever terms the opponent sets. Consider the Western Conference Final. The Dallas Stars seemed lost and flustered whenever the Oilers scored first. They struggled to generate offense, managing only four shots in the third period of must-win games, unable to play their own style.
The Panthers, in contrast, don`t get rattled. Their confidence isn`t shaken, and their hope isn`t extinguished if things aren`t going their way. They capitalize on the opportunities they create. They are methodical and patient where others become frantic and panicked. Against Carolina, a stingy defensive team, the Panthers patiently waited for their openings and struck decisively with quick bursts of goals, dramatically changing games. In their wins against the Hurricanes, they scored multiple goals within four minutes. Florida is perhaps the NHL`s most opportunistic team when they sense “blood in the water.” In Game 3, it was five goals in 9:08; in Game 5, three goals in 4:36.
Aleksander Barkov summarized their approach: “We go into the game, we know exactly what we need to do. The confidence level is high and everyone`s having fun right now.”
Prediction: Panthers in six
GM Bill Zito and his staff have assembled a champion roster whose core players inherently possess the playoff competence and drive that other teams try desperately to acquire. The Panthers don`t need more “rings in the room”; most already have one. Playoff self-assurance is part of their hockey DNA.
Their “win at all costs” approach draws criticism but has resulted in three consecutive trips to the Stanley Cup Final.
Based on their recent performance and advantages in this matchup, they will earn a second straight championship skate.
And if I`m wrong, Connor McDavid gets his moment, which would also be fantastic.
