Power plays in the NHL are incredibly effective this season, reaching levels of dominance not seen in decades.
Data from ESPN Research indicates an average power play conversion rate of 21.6% as of Tuesday night`s games. This is the highest rate since the 1985-86 season, reminiscent of Wayne Gretzky`s Edmonton Oilers.
This high success rate is part of an ongoing trend, with power play conversions exceeding 21% for what could be the third consecutive season, a first since the mid-1980s.
However, there`s a counter-trend: power plays are also becoming increasingly rare in the NHL.
The current season sees an average of 2.71 power play opportunities per team per game, the lowest since the NHL began tracking this statistic in 1977-78. Previous lows were 2.89 in both the 2021-22 and 2020-21 seasons. This scarcity is also a trend, with teams averaging under three power play chances per game in five of the last seven seasons.
The decrease in power plays is directly linked to fewer penalty calls. The average number of penalties called per team per game is at a 20-year low for an 82-game season, with 3.48 penalties and just 8.15 penalty minutes on average.
In comparison, the 2014-15 season had averages of 4.03 penalties and 9.86 penalty minutes.
Where have all the penalties disappeared to?
`It`s funny, if I talk about it, I`ll probably get a bunch of penalties tonight,` joked New Jersey Devils center Cody Glass. `Honestly, I have no idea. Some games have almost none, others have many. It varies a lot.`
Many players are even unaware of the decrease in power plays.
`I only realized it when I read about it,` said Calgary Flames winger Blake Coleman. `I haven`t really noticed a difference.`
Conversations with NHL players, executives, data analysts, and former referees reveal several theories about this historical dip in penalties and power plays.
Here are six of the most convincing explanations:
The Impact of Parity
As of Thursday night, a significant 14 out of 16 Eastern Conference teams were either in a playoff spot or within six points of one. While the Western Conference has tightened due to the St. Louis Blues` recent performance, there are still 11 teams in contention.
With so many teams vying for playoff contention, every point is crucial. This parity is considered a key factor in the penalty and power play reduction, according to Stephen Walkom, NHL executive vice president and director of officiating.
`In such a balanced league, teams are extremely cautious about taking penalties,` Walkom stated.
The desire to avoid letting the team down is also a strong motivator.
`No one wants to be the player sitting in the penalty box,` Coleman mentioned. `The decrease in penalties makes sense given the parity. Playoff contention is tight, and every point is vital.`
Dave Jackson, ESPN`s NHL rules analyst and a former NHL referee of over four decades, has observed a change in player behavior as games become more critical in the standings.
`Many teams are already playing with playoff intensity,` Jackson noted. `Early in the season, many penalties are due to laziness or retaliation. In playoff-level games, penalties are less about laziness and retaliation, and more about desperation or accidental infractions from intense competition.`
With tight standings, teams have essentially been in playoff mode for a while now.
Rule Reinforcement Over Time
This season is on track to be the second consecutive with a decrease in penalty calls, continuing a larger trend of declining penalties per game since the 2005-06 season.
In 2005-06, there were 6.49 minor penalties per team per game. This decreased to 4.05 five years later, and further to 3.66 five years after that. This season, it averages 3.18.
From 2010-11 to 2014-15, the average was 3.84 minor penalties per game, compared to 3.34 over the last five seasons.
NHL penalty, power-play data (2005-06 to 2024-25)
| Season | PIM per game | Minors per game | Majors per game | Power-play Percentage | PP shooting percentage | PP save percentage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2005-06 | 16:02 | 6.49 | 0.39 | 17.7% | 13.98% | 0.860 |
| 2006-07 | 14:04 | 5.51 | 0.41 | 17.6% | 13.59% | 0.864 |
| 2007-08 | 13:57 | 4.94 | 0.55 | 17.8% | 13.30% | 0.867 |
| 2008-09 | 13:53 | 4.82 | 0.61 | 19.0% | 13.29% | 0.867 |
| 2009-10 | 12:48 | 4.33 | 0.60 | 18.2% | 12.67% | 0.873 |
| 2010-11 | 12:15 | 4.05 | 0.55 | 18.0% | 12.58% | 0.874 |
| 2011-12 | 11:12 | 3.84 | 0.46 | 17.3% | 12.58% | 0.874 |
| 2012-13 | 11:37 | 3.85 | 0.50 | 18.2% | 13.60% | 0.864 |
| 2013-14 | 10:56 | 3.82 | 0.40 | 17.9% | 12.28% | 0.877 |
| 2014-15 | 9:41 | 3.62 | 0.33 | 18.7% | 12.73% | 0.873 |
| 2015-16 | 9:44 | 3.66 | 0.30 | 18.7% | 12.88% | 0.871 |
| 2016-17 | 9:12 | 3.49 | 0.32 | 19.1% | 12.99% | 0.870 |
| 2017-18 | 8:39 | 3.43 | 0.23 | 20.2% | 13.04% | 0.870 |
| 2018-19 | 8:17 | 3.31 | 0.19 | 19.8% | 13.66% | 0.863 |
| 2019-20 | 8:25 | 3.36 | 0.18 | 20.0% | 13.45% | 0.866 |
| 2020-21 | 8:09 | 3.18 | 0.23 | 19.8% | 13.60% | 0.864 |
| 2021-22 | 8:51 | 3.37 | 0.26 | 20.6% | 13.58% | 0.864 |
| 2022-23 | 9:10 | 3.50 | 0.27 | 21.3% | 14.02% | 0.860 |
| 2023-24 | 9:20 | 3.47 | 0.25 | 21.0% | 13.85% | 0.862 |
| 2024-25 | 8:09 | 3.18 | 0.24 | 21.6% | 15.05% | 0.850 |
Stephen Walkom attributes this decline to player adaptation. `Players deserve credit. After 15 years of hooking calls, they learn not to hook hands. Players are possibly more disciplined and careful to avoid penalties.`
Tomas Tatar of the Devils, a veteran player, notes that preseason emphasis on rule enforcement impacts player behavior. `They emphasize avoiding stick use around gloves and hooks, warning players about these calls. We try to protect hands. These calls are made quickly if it`s close.`
`You must adapt or get penalized,` Tatar adds. This consistent reinforcement of standards likely contributes to the penalty decline.
One NHL executive suggests, `We might have reached a point where players have fundamentally changed how they play.`
The desired number of power plays is debated even among players. Cody Glass believes most prefer 5-on-5 play. `That`s the best hockey. Keep the game moving. Call clear penalties, but avoid ticky-tacky calls. Some roughness is part of hockey.`
Are Officials Letting Too Much Go?
Given the penalty decline, are officials missing calls?
Walkom says, `Missed call percentages aren`t increasing.` Both Walkom and Jackson disagree that officials are letting more go.
Walkom states, `Our standard hasn`t changed. We reinforce the NHL standard for every penalty. We support calls at any point if the standard is met, and discourage making up calls.`
Jackson, attending officiating camps, recounts Gary Bettman`s message: `We invest in your training. You know the standards. If it`s a penalty, call it, and we`ll support you.` This consistent standard, not game management, ensures consistency.
`It`s about sticking to the standard, so players know where they stand and penalties are justified,` Jackson explains.
Cyclical Nature of Penalties
Dave Jackson notes a decade-long cycle in penalties: `Waves of high and low.` He was an official in 2005-06 when, after a lockout-cancelled season, the NHL revised rules to boost scoring, which was at a low since 1956.
Legalizing two-line passes and a `zero tolerance` for obstruction penalties like interference, holding, and hooking were key changes. `Obstruction standards in 2005 sharply increased penalties,` Jackson remembers.
Power plays per game jumped from 4.24 in 2003-04 to 5.85 in 2005-06, the highest since 1987-88. Player re-education continued until 2008-09, when power plays settled to 4.16.
Jackson says rule emphasis causes power play spikes, citing the 2017-18 slashing crackdown and the 2021-22 cross-checking focus that boosted power plays in 2022-23.
This cycle continues as the NHL addresses different issues. `It`s like cybercrime: criminals find a method, hacks increase, authorities respond, attacks decrease, then new methods emerge,` Jackson explains.
Jackson believes the current penalty dip is due to no specific `crackdown` or teachable moment. `The game is where they want it, and players are within the rules.`
Fear of Dominant Power Plays
Historically, top power play teams include the Edmonton Oilers and Detroit Red Wings. However, Connor McDavid`s 2022-23 Oilers unit leads with a 32.4% conversion rate since 1984-95.
Dylan Larkin`s 2024-25 Red Wings are fifth at 29.1% in the last 40 years. Eight of the top 10 single-season power plays are from 2018-19 onward.
This season`s 21.6% conversion rate is the best since 1985-86 (22.2%). Nine teams exceed 25% conversion.
This success is due to a 15.1% shooting percentage on power plays this season, significantly higher than the average since 2005-06, with only one season above 14% (2022-23).
League-wide shooting percentage is at a 30-year high, while penalty kill save percentages are at a 20-year low of .850.
The NHL emphasizes that these conversion rates contribute to fewer power plays. Gary Meagher notes, `Teams avoid penalties due to power play success.`
Dave Jackson dismisses the idea that referees are consciously limiting power plays due to their effectiveness.
Generation Fast
The NHL boasts four straight seasons with six or more goals per game, a 30-year first.
This scoring increase is due to higher shooting and power play percentages, expansion impacting rosters, and 2005-06 rule changes promoting offense and speed. Slower, larger players are becoming less common.
Tomas Tatar observes, `The game is faster, players are more agile and quick, including defensemen. Everyone can skate.`
Players suggest speed reduces penalties. Blake Coleman notes, `Everyone is a better skater, defending with feet is easier. Obstruction penalties are down.`
Despite perception, average player age hasn`t decreased significantly. However, Coleman believes newer generations play a cleaner game. `Fewer headshots now. Players are more aware, it`s ingrained not to do it from a young age.`
Playoff Implications
Dave Jackson counters the myth of fewer playoff power plays. `First round playoffs have more penalties due to talent gaps. Top teams face lower-ranked teams causing desperation penalties.`
Strong power plays correlate with playoff success. Six of the last eight Stanley Cup champions had top-eight power plays in the regular season. Playoff teams with top power plays include Vegas, Winnipeg, New Jersey, Toronto, Tampa Bay, and Edmonton.
Power plays are vital in playoffs, and high conversion rates are a champion`s trait. This season`s power play success is likely to continue into the postseason. However, power play frequency might decrease as series progress.
Data suggests power play opportunities increase in early first-round games, then sharply decline later in series and rounds. Postseason penalty trends may mirror the regular season: high power play effectiveness is less impactful if opportunities are scarce.
