Who Will Win the NHL Atlantic Division? Playoff Standings Analysis

Many NHL playoff races are going down to the wire this season. In the Atlantic Division, while it`s almost certain that the top three teams will make the playoffs, their final ranking is still undecided.

The stakes are high: the division winner will face a wild-card team, likely the Ottawa Senators, in the first round. The second and third place teams will compete against each other, with the second-seeded team having home-ice advantage.

As of Sunday`s game starts, the Toronto Maple Leafs are leading the division with 92 points. The Florida Panthers are close behind with 91 points but have played one less game (72) than the Tampa Bay Lightning, who also have 91 points (in 73 games).

If teams are tied in points at the end of the season, the first tiebreaker is regulation wins. Currently, the Lightning lead with 37 regulation wins, followed by the Leafs with 36 and the Panthers with 35.

Looking ahead, Florida will be the first of these three teams to play, hosting the Montreal Canadiens on Sunday. The Leafs will continue their road trip on the West Coast against the Anaheim Ducks on Sunday. The Lightning will play on Tuesday against the New York Islanders.

The Panthers have important upcoming games, including two against the Leafs and one against the Lightning. Toronto`s schedule also includes a final regular-season game against Tampa Bay.

In terms of schedule difficulty, the Leafs have the toughest remaining schedule among the three teams, while the Lightning have the easiest. The Panthers` schedule difficulty is in between.

Stathletes` projections give the Lightning the best chance to win the division (44.5%), followed by the Panthers (33.9%) and then the Leafs (21.6%).

Will these predictions come true? We will see.

With only a few weeks left until April 17th, we are closely following the NHL playoff picture. We`ll keep you updated on all playoff races and the teams competing for a better position in the 2025 NHL draft lottery.

Note: Playoff chances are provided by Stathletes.

Current Playoff Matchups

Eastern Conference

A1 Toronto Maple Leafs vs. WC1 Ottawa Senators
A2 Florida Panthers vs. A3 Tampa Bay Lightning
M1 Washington Capitals vs. WC2 New York Rangers
M2 Carolina Hurricanes vs. M3 New Jersey Devils

Western Conference

C1 Winnipeg Jets vs. WC2 St. Louis Blues
C2 Dallas Stars vs. C3 Colorado Avalanche
P1 Vegas Golden Knights vs. WC1 Minnesota Wild
P2 Los Angeles Kings vs. P3 Edmonton Oilers

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Sunday`s Games

Montreal Canadiens at Florida Panthers, 1 p.m. (NHL)
Buffalo Sabres at Washington Capitals, 3 p.m.
Vancouver Canucks at Winnipeg Jets, 3 p.m.
Utah Hockey Club at Chicago Blackhawks, 4 p.m.
Ottawa Senators at Pittsburgh Penguins, 5 p.m.
New York Islanders at Carolina Hurricanes, 5 p.m.
Toronto Maple Leafs at Anaheim Ducks, 8 p.m.
San Jose Sharks at Los Angeles Kings, 10 p.m. (ESPN)

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Saturday`s Scoreboard

Philadelphia Flyers 7, Buffalo Sabres 4
Tampa Bay Lightning 5, New York Islanders 3
St. Louis Blues 2, Colorado Avalanche 1
New Jersey Devils 5, Minnesota Wild 2
Vegas Golden Knights 3, Nashville Predators 1
Ottawa Senators 3, Columbus Blue Jackets 2
Toronto Maple Leafs 3, Los Angeles Kings 1
Detroit Red Wings 2, Boston Bruins 1
Edmonton Oilers 3, Calgary Flames 2 (OT)
New York Rangers 6, San Jose Sharks 1
Dallas Stars 5, Seattle Kraken 1

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Expanded Standings

Atlantic Division

Toronto Maple Leafs

Points: 92
Regulation wins: 36
Playoff position: A1
Games left: 9
Points pace: 103.3
Next game: @ ANA (Sunday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Florida Panthers

Points: 91
Regulation wins: 35
Playoff position: A2
Games left: 10
Points pace: 103.6
Next game: vs. MTL (Sunday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Tampa Bay Lightning

Points: 91
Regulation wins: 37
Playoff position: A3
Games left: 9
Points pace: 102.2
Next game: @ NYI (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Ottawa Senators

Points: 83
Regulation wins: 30
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 10
Points pace: 94.5
Next game: @ PIT (Sunday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Montreal Canadiens

Points: 75
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 10
Points pace: 85.4
Next game: @ FLA (Sunday)
Playoff chances: 30.0%
Tragic number: 19

Detroit Red Wings

Points: 74
Regulation wins: 26
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 9
Points pace: 83.1
Next game: @ STL (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 3.3%
Tragic number: 16

Boston Bruins

Points: 69
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 8
Points pace: 76.5
Next game: vs. WSH (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 0.1%
Tragic number: 9

Buffalo Sabres

Points: 66
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 10
Points pace: 75.2
Next game: @ WSH (Sunday)
Playoff chances: 0.1%
Tragic number: 10

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Metro Division

x – Washington Capitals

Points: 103
Regulation wins: 40
Playoff position: M1
Games left: 10
Points pace: 117.3
Next game: vs. BUF (Sunday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A

Carolina Hurricanes

Points: 92
Regulation wins: 39
Playoff position: M2
Games left: 10
Points pace: 104.8
Next game: vs. NYI (Sunday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

New Jersey Devils

Points: 85
Regulation wins: 35
Playoff position: M3
Games left: 7
Points pace: 92.9
Next game: vs. MIN (Monday)
Playoff chances: 99.7%
Tragic number: N/A

New York Rangers

Points: 77
Regulation wins: 32
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 8
Points pace: 85.3
Next game: vs. MIN (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 33.1%
Tragic number: N/A

Columbus Blue Jackets

Points: 75
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 10
Points pace: 85.4
Next game: vs. NSH (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 19.6%
Tragic number: 19

New York Islanders

Points: 74
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 10
Points pace: 84.3
Next game: @ CAR (Sunday)
Playoff chances: 14.4%
Tragic number: 18

Pittsburgh Penguins

Points: 69
Regulation wins: 20
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 8
Points pace: 76.5
Next game: vs. OTT (Sunday)
Playoff chances: 0.1%
Tragic number: 9

Philadelphia Flyers

Points: 69
Regulation wins: 19
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 7
Points pace: 75.4
Next game: vs. NSH (Monday)
Playoff chances: 0.1%
Tragic number: 7

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Central Division

x – Winnipeg Jets

Points: 104
Regulation wins: 39
Playoff position: C1
Games left: 9
Points pace: 116.8
Next game: vs. VAN (Sunday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A

x – Dallas Stars

Points: 100
Regulation wins: 39
Playoff position: C2
Games left: 9
Points pace: 112.3
Next game: @ SEA (Monday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A

Colorado Avalanche

Points: 93
Regulation wins: 38
Playoff position: C3
Games left: 8
Points pace: 103.1
Next game: vs. CGY (Monday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Minnesota Wild

Points: 87
Regulation wins: 33
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 8
Points pace: 96.4
Next game: @ NJ (Monday)
Playoff chances: 92.3%
Tragic number: N/A

St. Louis Blues

Points: 87
Regulation wins: 30
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 7
Points pace: 95.1
Next game: vs. DET (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 94.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Utah Hockey Club

Points: 76
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 9
Points pace: 85.4
Next game: @ CHI (Sunday)
Playoff chances: 0.4%
Tragic number: 8

e – Nashville Predators

Points: 62
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 9
Points pace: 69.6
Next game: @ PHI (Monday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

e – Chicago Blackhawks

Points: 51
Regulation wins: 18
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 9
Points pace: 57.3
Next game: vs. UTA (Sunday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

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Pacific Division

Vegas Golden Knights

Points: 98
Regulation wins: 42
Playoff position: P1
Games left: 9
Points pace: 110.1
Next game: vs. EDM (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Los Angeles Kings

Points: 89
Regulation wins: 35
Playoff position: P3
Games left: 10
Points pace: 101.4
Next game: vs. SJ (Sunday)
Playoff chances: 99.8%
Tragic number: N/A

Edmonton Oilers

Points: 89
Regulation wins: 30
Playoff position: P2
Games left: 9
Points pace: 100.0
Next game: @ VGK (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 99.4%
Tragic number: N/A

Vancouver Canucks

Points: 81
Regulation wins: 26
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 9
Points pace: 91.0
Next game: @ WPG (Sunday)
Playoff chances: 5.8%
Tragic number: 13

Calgary Flames

Points: 80
Regulation wins: 26
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 10
Points pace: 91.1
Next game: @ COL (Monday)
Playoff chances: 7.3%
Tragic number: 14

Anaheim Ducks

Points: 72
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 10
Points pace: 82.0
Next game: vs. TOR (Sunday)
Playoff chances: 0.1%
Tragic number: 6

e – Seattle Kraken

Points: 68
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 8
Points pace: 75.4
Next game: vs. DAL (Monday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

e – San Jose Sharks

Points: 49
Regulation wins: 14
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 10
Points pace: 55.8
Next game: @ LA (Sunday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

Note: An `x` means that the team has clinched a playoff berth. An `e` means that the team has been eliminated from playoff contention.

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Race for the No. 1 Pick

The NHL uses a draft lottery to determine the order of the first round, so the team that finishes in last place is not guaranteed the No. 1 selection. As of 2021, a team can move up a maximum of 10 spots if it wins the lottery, so only 11 teams are eligible for the No. 1 pick. Full details on the process are here. Matthew Schaefer, a defenseman for the OHL`s Erie Otters, is No. 1 on the draft board.

1. San Jose Sharks

Points: 49
Regulation wins: 14

2. Chicago Blackhawks

Points: 51
Regulation wins: 18

3. Nashville Predators

Points: 62
Regulation wins: 23

4. Buffalo Sabres

Points: 66
Regulation wins: 24

5. Seattle Kraken

Points: 68
Regulation wins: 25

6. Philadelphia Flyers

Points: 69
Regulation wins: 19

7. Pittsburgh Penguins

Points: 69
Regulation wins: 20

8. Boston Bruins

Points: 69
Regulation wins: 23

9. Anaheim Ducks

Points: 72
Regulation wins: 23

10. Detroit Red Wings

Points: 74
Regulation wins: 26

11. New York Islanders

Points: 74
Regulation wins: 25

12. Columbus Blue Jackets

Points: 75
Regulation wins: 23

13. Montreal Canadiens

Points: 75
Regulation wins: 24

14. Utah Hockey Club

Points: 76
Regulation wins: 24

15. Calgary Flames

Points: 80
Regulation wins: 26

16. Vancouver Canucks

Points: 81
Regulation wins: 26