In the intricate world of fantasy hockey, the true artistry lies not just in drafting superstar talent, but in the nuanced pursuit of value. A championship roster is often forged by astute managers who can pinpoint players poised to exceed expectations – the “sleepers” – while judiciously sidestepping those likely to fall short of their lofty Average Draft Position (ADP) – the “busts.” As the 2025-26 NHL season approaches, the strategic landscape is ripe for analysis, offering both exhilarating opportunities and potential pitfalls. This guide delves into the players who embody these critical categories, providing a data-driven yet narrative perspective on how to navigate your draft with precision and purpose.
- The Quest for Hidden Gems: Identifying Your Sleepers
- Sleeper Lukas Dostal, G, Anaheim Ducks
- Sleeper Andrei Kuzmenko, F, Los Angeles Kings
- Sleeper Cole Perfetti, F, Winnipeg Jets
- Sleeper Matias Maccelli, F, Toronto Maple Leafs
- Sleeper Mathew Barzal, F, New York Islanders
- Sleeper Will Cuylle, F, New York Rangers
- Sleeper Trevor Zegras, F, Philadelphia Flyers
- Sleeper Morgan Geekie, F, Boston Bruins
- Sleeper JJ Peterka, F, Utah Mammoth
- Sleeper Ivan Barbashev, F, Vegas Golden Knights
- Sleeper Shayne Gostisbehere, D, Carolina Hurricanes
- Sleeper Cam Fowler, D, St. Louis Blues
- Navigating the Landmines: Identifying Your Busts
- Bust Connor Bedard, F, Chicago Blackhawks
- Bust Steven Stamkos, F, Nashville Predators
- Bust Mike Matheson, D, Montreal Canadiens
- Bust Brent Burns, D, Colorado Avalanche
- Bust Logan Thompson, G, Washington Capitals
The Quest for Hidden Gems: Identifying Your Sleepers
Every fantasy season offers a fresh crop of undervalued assets, players whose current perception belies their true upside. These are the individuals poised for breakout campaigns due to new roles, improved team dynamics, a return to health, or simply a lack of broad recognition. Securing these players in later rounds can be the differential that elevates a good team to a great one.
Sleeper Lukas Dostal, G, Anaheim Ducks
The 25-year-old Czech netminder steps into the undisputed starting role for the Ducks, a team that, contrary to popular belief, is not just rebuilding but actively rising. With John Gibson now in Detroit, Dostal assumes the mantle with a more formidable supporting cast. Offseason additions like Chris Kreider and Mikael Granlund, alongside burgeoning stars Leo Carlsson and Cutter Gauthier, bolster the offense. Crucially, the arrival of seasoned coach Joel Quenneville, complemented by defensive guru Ryan McGill, promises a more structured defensive system. This improved environment is music to any goaltender`s ears. Expect Dostal to start at least 55 games, posting personal bests and delivering considerable fantasy value as a late-round steal.
Sleeper Andrei Kuzmenko, F, Los Angeles Kings
Life on a scoring line and top power play with a future Hall-of-Famer like Anze Kopitar is rarely a bad assignment. Kuzmenko`s brief stint with the Kings last winter, where he tallied 17 points in 22 games, offered a tantalizing glimpse. While his 74-point Vancouver debut may remain an outlier, a 65-plus point season alongside Kopitar and Adrian Kempe is well within reach, especially if he maintains his crucial top power-play slot. This enigmatic forward`s current ADP fails to account for his proven offensive prowess when paired with elite playmakers.
Sleeper Cole Perfetti, F, Winnipeg Jets
Entering his fourth full NHL campaign, the 23-year-old Perfetti is a prime candidate for a significant breakout. With Nikolaj Ehlers` departure, Perfetti is slated for an expanded role on a second scoring line and, critically, a full-time assignment on the top power play unit alongside Mark Scheifele and Kyle Connor. This combination of increased opportunity and elite linemates is a potent recipe for offensive explosion. Anticipate him comfortably surpassing the 65-point mark this season.
Sleeper Matias Maccelli, F, Toronto Maple Leafs
This projection hinges on a Scotiabank Arena-sized “if”: if Maccelli can indeed secure a spot on a top Leafs line in Mitch Marner`s former slot, his ceiling rockets. Playing alongside Auston Matthews and Matthew Knies consistently guarantees points. Even if he lands on the second unit with John Tavares and William Nylander, his offensive production is poised for a substantial increase over his previous 57-point career high. The 24-year-old’s potential in Toronto’s high-octane offense is immense.
Sleeper Mathew Barzal, F, New York Islanders
After an injury-marred campaign that saw him register only 20 points in 30 games, Barzal is reportedly feeling renewed, both physically and mentally. At full health and in the prime of his career, Barzal possesses point-per-game potential, a level he demonstrated just two seasons prior with an 80-point output in 80 games. His current ranking reflects recency bias rather than his proven capabilities when fit and firing.
Sleeper Will Cuylle, F, New York Rangers
The third-year skater for the Rangers is generating significant buzz, with expectations soaring to a 30-goal, 30-assist season. Beyond pure scoring, Cuylle also brings a substantial volume of shots and an exceptional number of hits (300 last season), making him a multi-category powerhouse in deeper leagues. A full-time role on a scoring line with J.T. Miller and Mika Zibanejad, complemented by secondary power-play minutes, solidifies his breakout potential. Cuylle might not be a household name outside of New York yet, but he will be soon enough.
Sleeper Trevor Zegras, F, Philadelphia Flyers
Sometimes, a change of scenery is precisely what a player needs, and Zegras`s move from Anaheim to Philadelphia feels like a particularly necessary fresh start. A worst-case scenario sees him on the second scoring line and top power play, but a more optimistic outlook has him potentially skating on the first unit with Matvei Michkov and Travis Konecny. New coach Rick Tocchet`s deployment in camp will be critical, but at just 24 years old, Zegras has genuine 70-point potential. In his new environment, he is primed to provide a significant spark.
Sleeper Morgan Geekie, F, Boston Bruins
The 27-year-old winger quietly put up 57 points in 77 games for the Bruins last season, with a significant portion of that production (22 points in the final 14 contests) coming after Brad Marchand`s departure. A full season on a top forward unit and power play alongside center Elias Lindholm and, more importantly, David Pastrnak, should easily propel Geekie towards the 70-point plateau. His previous performance post-Marchand offers a clear blueprint for increased output.
Sleeper JJ Peterka, F, Utah Mammoth
Relocating from Buffalo to Utah, Peterka is set to benefit from a prominent role. Skating on a scoring line with Dylan Guenther and Logan Cooley, and a power play alongside Clayton Keller, he is projected to notch a minimum of 70 points for the first time in his young career. Known for his willingness to shoot, the 23-year-old now also carries the distinction of being his new club’s highest-paid forward – a role that often correlates with increased opportunity and production.
Sleeper Ivan Barbashev, F, Vegas Golden Knights
Primarily featuring on a top line with Jack Eichel and Mark Stone, Barbashev averaged a respectable 0.73 points per game last season. If the rumored move of Mitch Marner to Vegas materializes and he slots in with Eichel, Barbashev`s production could see a significant boost. Beyond the points, his robust physical play makes him a valuable asset in leagues that reward hits, adding another layer to his fantasy appeal.
Sleeper Shayne Gostisbehere, D, Carolina Hurricanes
Gostisbehere consistently demonstrates elite power-play prowess, scoring more power-play points (27) last season than any defenseman not named Cale Makar, Jake Sanderson, or Quinn Hughes, alongside 18 even-strength points in only 70 games. Projected to continue as Carolina`s top power-play anchor, he warrants far greater appreciation in leagues that heavily value production with the man advantage. His scoring capabilities from the blue line are consistently underestimated.
Sleeper Cam Fowler, D, St. Louis Blues
Perennially underrated as a fantasy performer, Fowler found new life after joining the Blues last December, banging out 36 points in just 51 contests. Nearing 500 career points, this top power-play anchor is poised for another 45-point season in his first full campaign with St. Louis. Furthermore, in the final year of his current contract, Fowler has an added incentive to perform at his peak, often a boon for fantasy managers.
Navigating the Landmines: Identifying Your Busts
Just as critical as finding sleepers is avoiding the “busts” – players whose fantasy draft stock significantly outstrips their likely production. These are often established names, aging stars, or individuals facing new team dynamics that will negatively impact their output. Overdrafting a bust can cripple a team`s championship aspirations before the season even truly begins.
Bust Connor Bedard, F, Chicago Blackhawks
While undoubtedly a generational talent and the 2024 Calder winner, Bedard`s fantasy ceiling remains constrained by his supporting cast in Chicago. Until the Blackhawks` management tangibly upgrades the roster, Bedard is unlikely to consistently break the point-per-game barrier. Entering the final year of his entry-level deal, his immense talent is not yet matched by the team infrastructure required for elite fantasy production across an entire season. His current No. 38 forward ranking is aspirational, not practical, for the immediate future.
Bust Steven Stamkos, F, Nashville Predators
The former Lightning legend’s 53 points in Nashville last year marked a noticeable dip in production. While a complete replication of that unusually low performance is unlikely, a return to his previous 75-plus point seasons also appears improbable. At his current ranking (No. 24 forward), managers are likely paying for past glory rather than projected current output. Age and a potentially less offensively focused role suggest caution.
Bust Mike Matheson, D, Montreal Canadiens
Matheson saw his production drop sharply from 62 points in 2023-24 to 31 this past season, largely overshadowed by Lane Hutson’s Calder-winning performance. With Noah Dobson now also in the mix, Matheson`s role on the power play – the primary driver of his earlier fantasy value – is poised for further dilution. His current ranking (No. 18 defenseman) is far too optimistic given the increased competition for offensive minutes from the blue line.
Bust Brent Burns, D, Colorado Avalanche
Joining his fourth NHL team at 40 years old, Burns will undoubtedly appreciate another legitimate shot at a Stanley Cup. However, this pursuit comes with a significant fantasy caveat: he will undeniably take a backseat on the Avalanche’s stacked blue line to talents like Cale Makar, Devon Toews, and Samuel Girard. After potting 61 points in Carolina in 2022-23, Burns eked out only 29 last season. With a diminished role, that 29-point figure feels more like his ceiling than his floor in Colorado, making his No. 53 defenseman ranking a stretch.
Bust Logan Thompson, G, Washington Capitals
Thompson’s transition from Vegas saw him deliver a happy fantasy surprise for many in 2024-25, boasting a sparkling 31-6-6 record. The concern now shifts to the sustainability of such numbers with a Capitals team that is unlikely to replicate their 111-point campaign. His .910 save percentage, while respectable, suggests a degree of good fortune contributed to his impressive win-loss record. While a competent fantasy goalie, he is not a comfortable choice for a No. 2 goaltender in reasonably sized leagues, making his No. 12 goaltender ranking an overvaluation.
The art of fantasy hockey drafting is an ongoing dance between intuition and empirical analysis. While star power is undeniably attractive, true success often hinges on the shrewd identification of undervalued assets and the disciplined avoidance of players whose perceived worth outstrips their realistic projections. The 2025-26 season offers a compelling mix of established names facing new realities and rising talents on the cusp of breakout performances. By integrating these insights into your draft strategy, you equip yourself not just with a roster, but with a foundational advantage for a championship run. Happy drafting, and may your sleepers flourish!
