Understanding the NHL Draft Lottery

The 2025 NHL draft features several highly-touted prospects such as defenseman Matthew Schaefer from the Erie Otters, center Michael Misa of the Saginaw Spirit, and center James Hagens from Boston College.

However, the top overall selection isn`t automatically awarded to the team finishing last in the regular season. Instead, the order of the initial 16 picks in the first round is decided by a lottery process.

Keep reading to understand how the lottery operates and which teams have the highest probability of securing the first pick.

Why the NHL Holds a Draft Lottery

The lottery offers several non-playoff teams a chance at the coveted first overall pick, recognizing the significant value placed on early first-round selections. Theoretically, this system also discourages teams from deliberately performing poorly (often referred to as “tanking”), as finishing last doesn`t guarantee the top pick.

Additionally, it generates anticipation and excitement for fans of the teams involved during the period between the regular season`s end and the lottery drawing.

How the NHL Draft Lottery Procedure Works

The lottery process involves 14 ping pong balls in a machine, creating 1,001 possible combinations. Each participating team is allocated a unique set of random four-number sequences. A team`s allocation is based on their inverse order of finish in the regular season standings; the team with the poorest record, the San Jose Sharks in this instance, receives the most combinations (185), giving them an 18.5% chance in the initial drawing.

The entire procedure is overseen by an accounting firm, which tracks the team associated with each combination. One combination is intentionally omitted from the process, leaving exactly 1,000 valid outcomes.

The first lottery drawing determines the team that will receive the top overall pick. However, rule changes in 2021 cap a team`s potential jump to a maximum of 10 spots. If a team positioned 12th through 16th wins the first draw, they will ascend the maximum number of spots (e.g., 12th moves to 2nd), and the first pick will then fall to the team that finished lowest in the standings among those that did not win a lottery draw.

A second lottery draw is held to determine the winner of the second lottery slot, applying the same rules. If a team originally in spots 13-16 wins this second draw, they also move up a maximum of 10 places. The final order of picks 1 and 2 is determined by these two draws, subject to the 10-spot limit. Teams that do not win either lottery draw are assigned picks 3 through 16 based on their inverse regular-season standings.

Selections in the subsequent rounds (2 through 7) are always made in the reverse order of the final league standings after the playoffs conclude, regardless of the lottery results.

Notably for 2025, the lottery drawings will be televised live for the first time, allowing fans to witness the outcome unfold in real-time.

Team Odds in the 2025 NHL Draft Lottery

*Important Note: The Calgary Flames` first-round pick in this draft belongs to the Montreal Canadiens due to a 2022 trade involving Sean Monahan. However, this pick is protected if it falls within the top 10. So, if Calgary wins the lottery and moves into the top 6 (which would be within the top 10), they would retain their pick, and Montreal would receive the Florida Panthers` first-round pick (which Calgary also acquired in the Matthew Tkachuk trade).

Additional NHL Draft Lottery Regulations

Among the rule adjustments made in 2021, the NHL stipulated that a single team cannot win the lottery more than twice within any five-year period, starting with the 2022 lottery.

As the San Jose Sharks won the lottery last year, another victory this year would make them ineligible to win again until 2029.