As the 2025 Stanley Cup playoffs were approaching, key questions arose: Could Connor Hellebuyck replicate his outstanding regular season performance in the playoffs for the Winnipeg Jets? Would the clash between the Colorado Avalanche and Dallas Stars in the first round be as intense as a Stanley Cup Final? And could this be the year Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl finally lead the Edmonton Oilers to victory after their near miss last season?
Beyond these team storylines, it`s crucial to assess which individual players will be most impactful in the postseason.
This is where Goals Above Replacement (GAR) becomes significant. GAR is a refined metric that evaluates a player`s overall contribution—offensively, defensively, and in net—relative to a replacement-level player at their position. It also balances positional value distribution across the league: 60% for forwards, 30% for defensemen, and 10% for goalies.
To determine the most valuable players for the playoffs, a system inspired by Bill James` “established level” concept was used. This system calculates a weighted average of each player`s GAR over the past three regular seasons, emphasizing the 2024-25 season. To account for emerging talents, a safeguard was added: no player`s established level can be less than 75% of their most recent season`s GAR.
The resulting ranking blends sustained excellence, recent performance, and upward trends, identifying players on playoff teams who are currently performing at a high level and are likely to shape the postseason.
Important note: Injured players expected to miss significant playoff time were excluded, unfortunately including Jack Hughes.
Here are the top 20 players from playoff teams in 2025, ranked by their three-year established level of value:
- 1. Connor Hellebuyck, G, Winnipeg Jets
- 2. Nathan MacKinnon, F, Colorado Avalanche
- 3. Leon Draisaitl, F, Edmonton Oilers
- 4. Nikita Kucherov, F, Tampa Bay Lightning
- 5. Cale Makar, D, Colorado Avalanche
- 6. Connor McDavid, F, Edmonton Oilers
- 7. Andrei Vasilevskiy, G, Tampa Bay Lightning
- 8. Auston Matthews, F, Toronto Maple Leafs
- 9. Mikko Rantanen, F, Dallas Stars
- 10. William Nylander, F, Toronto Maple Leafs
- 11. Brayden Point, F, Tampa Bay Lightning
- 12. Sam Reinhart, F, Florida Panthers
- 13. Evan Bouchard, D, Edmonton Oilers
- 14. Josh Morrissey, D, Winnipeg Jets
- 15. Filip Gustavsson, G, Minnesota Wild
- 16. Mitch Marner, F, Toronto Maple Leafs
- 17. Jason Robertson, F, Dallas Stars
- 18. Linus Ullmark, G, Ottawa Senators
- 19. Sebastian Aho, F, Carolina Hurricanes
- 20. Victor Hedman, D, Tampa Bay Lightning
1. Connor Hellebuyck, G, Winnipeg Jets
GAR: 2024-25: 30.4 | 2023-24: 28.1 | 2022-23: 28.0
Three-year avg: O: 0.0 | D: 0.0 | G: 29.2 | Total: 29.2
Hellebuyck is considered the premier goalie of his generation, significantly outperforming other goalies in GAR since 2017-18. He is the clear frontrunner for the Vezina Trophy and is now also a top contender for the Hart Trophy. His remarkable consistency, leading the league in quality starts (44), makes him a critical asset for the Jets, despite potential “President`s Trophy curse.”
Playoff outlook: Hellebuyck`s playoff performance has historically been less consistent than his regular season form. Improving his postseason save percentage will be crucial for the Jets` success this year.
2. Nathan MacKinnon, F, Colorado Avalanche
GAR: 2024-25: 24.2 | 2023-24: 31.0 | 2022-23: 24.5
Three-year avg: O: 21.2 | D: 5.3 | G: 0.0 | Total: 26.5
MacKinnon is a standout talent for the Avalanche, driving their offense. Despite a slight dip from his MVP-caliber season, he remains the core of Colorado`s fifth-ranked offense, significantly improving their shot share when on the ice.
Playoff outlook: The Avalanche face a tough first-round matchup against Dallas, meaning MacKinnon`s playoff run could be unfortunately short. However, his offensive prowess poses a significant challenge for the Stars` defense.
3. Leon Draisaitl, F, Edmonton Oilers
GAR: 2024-25: 28.0 | 2023-24: 23.3 | 2022-23: 27.9
Three-year avg: O: 21.7 | D: 4.7 | G: 0.0 | Total: 26.4
Draisaitl had a career-best goal-scoring season in 2024-25, leading the Oilers` offense. He has consistently delivered high-level performance, joining a select group of NHL legends with seven consecutive seasons of 104+ adjusted points. He was a strong MVP candidate and remains a dominant force.
Playoff outlook: Draisaitl is a proven playoff performer. Facing the Kings in Round 1, he aims to continue his scoring success against this familiar opponent.
4. Nikita Kucherov, F, Tampa Bay Lightning
GAR: 2024-25: 26.1 | 2023-24: 29.9 | 2022-23: 19.6
Three-year avg: O: 22.5 | D: 3.7 | G: 0.0 | Total: 26.3
Kucherov, a multiple Art Ross Trophy winner, remains one of hockey`s most dangerous offensive players. He propelled the Lightning to a top-ranked offense and Stanley Cup contention. His consistent high scoring and playmaking ability make him a key player.
Playoff outlook: Kucherov`s playoff record is exceptional. With a history of high scoring in crucial games, he is expected to be a major factor in the Lightning`s playoff campaign, especially against a potentially weaker Panthers defense.
5. Cale Makar, D, Colorado Avalanche
GAR: 2024-25: 30.1 | 2023-24: 22.9 | 2022-23: 18.6
Three-year avg: O: 18.4 | D: 7.4 | G: 0.0 | Total: 25.8
Makar is making a strong case for MVP as a defenseman. He is among the league leaders in GAR and is statistically comparable to legendary offensive defensemen. His offensive contribution from the blue line without compromising defensively makes him a standout player.
Playoff outlook: Makar provides a significant advantage for the Avalanche`s defense, which is ranked as the league`s best by GAR. His performance will be crucial in their series against Dallas, where defensive strength could be decisive.
6. Connor McDavid, F, Edmonton Oilers
GAR: 2024-25: 20.4 | 2023-24: 27.4 | 2022-23: 35.8
Three-year avg: O: 20.8 | D: 4.6 | G: 0.0 | Total: 25.3
Despite being ranked sixth, McDavid remains an elite player. While his 2024-25 season was slightly less statistically dominant compared to his own high standards, partly due to missed games and a slight dip in offensive output, he is still essential to the Oilers` Cup aspirations.
Playoff outlook: McDavid`s playoff history is filled with high-scoring performances. Facing the Kings again, he is expected to lead the Oilers` offense and drive their Stanley Cup quest.
7. Andrei Vasilevskiy, G, Tampa Bay Lightning
GAR: 2024-25: 28.6 | 2023-24: 2.9 | 2022-23: 20.6
Three-year avg: O: 0.0 | D: 0.0 | G: 21.5 | Total: 21.5
Vasilevskiy rebounded in 2024-25 with a career-best season, reaffirming his status as a top goalie. His performance was crucial in elevating the Lightning`s overall game. Despite Hellebuyck`s current top ranking, Vasilevskiy`s season was exceptional.
Playoff outlook: Vasilevskiy`s playoff pedigree includes two Stanley Cups and a Conn Smythe Trophy. He is known for raising his level in the playoffs and can carry the Lightning deep into the postseason.
8. Auston Matthews, F, Toronto Maple Leafs
GAR: 2024-25: 15.9 | 2023-24: 29.4 | 2022-23: 20.2
Three-year avg: O: 17.6 | D: 3.5 | G: 0.0 | Total: 21.1
Matthews, despite a slight statistical downturn in 2024-25 compared to his near-MVP season, remains a highly impactful forward. His underlying metrics, such as shot attempts, remain strong, and he is still ranked among the top players due to his consistent high performance over the past three years.
Playoff outlook: Matthews is under immense pressure to perform in the playoffs for Toronto. While capable of big moments, his playoff scoring hasn`t always matched his regular season dominance, and improved postseason production is expected starting against Ottawa.
9. Mikko Rantanen, F, Dallas Stars
GAR: 2024-25: 18.1 | 2023-24: 21.5 | 2022-23: 23.7
Three-year avg: O: 15.9 | D: 4.3 | G: 0.0 | Total: 20.2
Rantanen, after a unique season playing for three different teams, remains a highly skilled and well-rounded winger. Despite the unusual season, his underlying talent and past playoff performances suggest he will be a key player for the Stars.
Playoff outlook: Rantanen faces significant pressure to perform for the Stars, especially given the high expectations and what Dallas traded to acquire him. His performance is critical to their Stanley Cup aspirations.
10. William Nylander, F, Toronto Maple Leafs
GAR: 2024-25: 19.8 | 2023-24: 20.2 | 2022-23: 19.0
Three-year avg: O: 17.0 | D: 2.8 | G: 0.0 | Total: 19.8
Nylander had a career-best goal-scoring season in 2024-25, stepping up for the Maple Leafs. His consistent scoring and overall offensive contribution make him a vital part of Toronto`s playoff team.
Playoff outlook: Nylander has been a consistent playoff scorer. Against Ottawa, he is expected to continue his offensive production and be a key contributor for the Leafs.
11. Brayden Point, F, Tampa Bay Lightning
GAR: 2024-25: 19.2 | 2023-24: 18.7 | 2022-23: 20.7
Three-year avg: O: 16.5 | D: 2.7 | G: 0.0 | Total: 19.3
Point is consistently reliable, providing steady offensive production and GAR over the past three seasons. His partnership with Kucherov continues to be highly effective, making him a cornerstone of the Lightning`s offense.
Playoff outlook: Point has a strong playoff history, especially during the Lightning`s Cup wins. He is expected to play a central role in their playoff success this year, particularly against a potentially less defensively strong Florida team.
12. Sam Reinhart, F, Florida Panthers
GAR: 2024-25: 18.4 | 2023-24: 25.1 | 2022-23: 10.0
Three-year avg: O: 14.9 | D: 4.3 | G: 0.0 | Total: 19.3
Reinhart has emerged as a breakout star for the Panthers, leading the team in key offensive categories. Despite some expected regression from a stellar season, he remains a highly valuable all-around forward.
Playoff outlook: Reinhart`s playoff scoring has been somewhat less prominent compared to his regular season form. As the Panthers rely more on him, improved playoff production is needed for them to repeat as champions.
13. Evan Bouchard, D, Edmonton Oilers
GAR: 2024-25: 19.4 | 2023-24: 24.1 | 2022-23: 8.9
Three-year avg: O: 12.2 | D: 7.0 | G: 0.0 | Total: 19.2
Bouchard has solidified himself as a top defenseman for the Oilers. His strong offensive and defensive contributions make him a crucial part of their core, even if he is sometimes underrated compared to other elite defensemen.
Playoff outlook: Bouchard`s playoff breakout was significant last season. Despite a change in his defensive partner, he is expected to remain a key offensive and defensive contributor for the Oilers against the Kings.
14. Josh Morrissey, D, Winnipeg Jets
GAR: 2024-25: 17.9 | 2023-24: 19.1 | 2022-23: 18.9
Three-year avg: O: 11.0 | D: 7.4 | G: 0.0 | Total: 18.5
Morrissey is a consistently high-performing defenseman, often flying under the radar. Statistically, he ranks among the top defensemen in GAR over the past three seasons, anchoring the Jets` blue line and contributing significantly to their regular-season success.
Playoff outlook: Morrissey needs to translate his regular-season form into playoff success. Improving his defensive impact in the postseason is crucial for the Jets to overcome past playoff shortcomings.
15. Filip Gustavsson, G, Minnesota Wild
GAR: 2024-25: 24.6 | 2023-24: 4.8 | 2022-23: 23.1
Three-year avg: O: 0.0 | D: 0.0 | G: 18.4 | Total: 18.4
Gustavsson has had a rollercoaster career, emerging as a strong starter for the Wild in 2024-25 after periods of inconsistent performance. His high number of quality starts and ability to stop even “easy” shots make him a valuable asset.
Playoff outlook: Gustavsson`s limited playoff experience places pressure on him to perform. As the Wild face a tough opponent, their hopes largely depend on his goaltending stealing games.
16. Mitch Marner, F, Toronto Maple Leafs
GAR: 2024-25: 19.0 | 2023-24: 17.1 | 2022-23: 19.4
Three-year avg: O: 14.7 | D: 3.7 | G: 0.0 | Total: 18.4
Marner remains consistently productive, achieving a career-high in adjusted points in 2024-25. His playmaking abilities and overall offensive contributions are vital for the Maple Leafs, despite some narratives about his playoff performances.
Playoff outlook: Marner faces high expectations in the playoffs. Despite some past criticisms, his overall playoff record is solid, and he is expected to be a key offensive driver for Toronto.
17. Jason Robertson, F, Dallas Stars
GAR: 2024-25: 16.8 | 2023-24: 16.7 | 2022-23: 26.6
Three-year avg: O: 14.7 | D: 3.7 | G: 0.0 | Total: 18.4
Robertson`s ranking is partly influenced by his exceptional 2022-23 season. While his more recent performance is still strong, it hasn`t quite reached those peak levels. He remains a crucial all-around forward for the Stars, particularly given his defensive zone starts.
Playoff outlook: Robertson`s playoff scoring has been somewhat inconsistent. Upon returning from injury, his performance will be crucial for the Stars, especially against a strong Colorado team.
18. Linus Ullmark, G, Ottawa Senators
GAR: 2024-25: 15.7 | 2023-24: 13.7 | 2022-23: 35.2
Three-year avg: O: 0.0 | D: 0.0 | G: 18.3 | Total: 18.3
Ullmark`s ranking benefits from his outstanding 2022-23 season with the Bruins. While he hasn`t fully replicated that form with the Senators, he has been a solid goalie, especially considering the defensive pressures faced by his new team.
Playoff outlook: Ullmark`s playoff career has been limited and statistically underwhelming. As the Senators are underdogs, his performance against Toronto will be critical to their chances of an upset.
19. Sebastian Aho, F, Carolina Hurricanes
GAR: 2024-25: 15.7 | 2023-24: 21.6 | 2022-23: 15.7
Three-year avg: O: 12.4 | D: 5.2 | G: 0.0 | Total: 17.6
Aho is a consistent and versatile player for the Hurricanes, contributing in all zones. Despite not being the flashiest player, his consistent scoring and playmaking are crucial to Carolina`s puck-possession-based system.
Playoff outlook: Aho is a reliable playoff performer with a strong track record. Against the Devils, his consistency and ability to capitalize on opportunities will be key for the Hurricanes.
20. Victor Hedman, D, Tampa Bay Lightning
GAR: 2024-25: 17.3 | 2023-24: 20.3 | 2022-23: 11.3
Three-year avg: O: 11.7 | D: 5.6 | G: 0.0 | Total: 17.3
Hedman has rebounded from a mid-career slump to perform at a high level, anchoring the Lightning`s defense and contributing offensively. His experience and all-around game are vital for Tampa Bay`s Stanley Cup ambitions.
Playoff outlook: Hedman is a proven playoff performer and Conn Smythe Trophy winner. His experience and leadership will be critical against tough opponents like the Panthers, making him a player the Lightning can rely on in big games.
