As the final whistles of preseason fade and the crisp scent of freshly Zambonied ice fills arenas, the annual tradition of forecasting potential NHL breakouts begins. It`s a blend of statistical prognostication, keen observation, and perhaps a touch of optimistic stargazing. This year, for the 2025-26 season, a cohort of promising young talents stands on the cusp of truly defining their professional narratives.
A “breakout,” in the modern lexicon of hockey analysis, extends beyond a mere surge in offensive production. While a significant uptick in goals and assists certainly garners attention, a true breakout often encompasses an elevated role at even strength, increased responsibility on special teams, or consistent exposure to the league`s toughest matchups. It`s about a player seizing the moment, proving their mettle, and fundamentally altering their team`s strategic landscape. Here, we delve into a selection of players poised to make such a seismic shift this season.
Connor Bedard
C, Chicago Blackhawks
To label Connor Bedard as a “breakout candidate” might, at first glance, appear somewhat… obvious. After all, isn`t a former first-overall pick, hailed as a generational talent, always expected to be `breaking out`? Yet, the burden of impossible expectations often dictates a unique developmental curve. We are reminded that even the formidable Nathan MacKinnon didn`t morph into the human wrecking ball we know today until his fifth NHL season. Perhaps it’s time to offer the comparatively smaller Bedard the same grace period.
While preseason rarely serves as an infallible crystal ball, Bedard`s September performances showcased his trademark elite shot and unparalleled vision with a renewed consistency. If health permits, a point-per-game pace seems not just feasible, but probable. Olympic aspirations, for instance, might necessitate an 85-90 point campaign – a target well within his prodigious skill set. The brilliance has always been there, albeit intermittently. This season, expect him to consistently command over 20 minutes of ice time, launching 3-4 shots per game. That elusive shooting percentage, often a lagging indicator for elite shooters, should see a significant climb. Projecting a 13% conversion rate on 270 shots translates to a robust 35 goals – a substantial leap from his prior 22- and 23-goal efforts. It`s not just about more shots; it`s about more meaningful opportunities, both self-created and systematically provided. A 32-goal, 55-assist (87 points) season appears to be less a projection and more an emerging inevitability.
Quinton Byfield
C, Los Angeles Kings
Standing at a towering 6-foot-5 and weighing 225 pounds, Quinton Byfield is not merely a player; he’s a strategic asset for the Los Angeles Kings. As the venerable Anze Kopitar`s illustrious career draws towards its twilight, Byfield is being groomed, quite explicitly, to inherit the top-line center mantle. This isn`t just a promotion; it`s a coronation in the making.
While Kopitar remains a formidable force, the Kings are acutely aware of the necessity to immerse Byfield in arduous minutes, pushing his development on both sides of the puck. Byfield possesses the rare fusion of attributes: the potential for an 80-point offensive ceiling coupled with rock-solid defensive reliability. His power-play opportunities are set to expand, capitalizing on an even-strength offensive game that truly began to blossom last season. After two campaigns hovering in the mid-50s for points, expect Byfield to harness his formidable speed, strength, and raw skill to physically dominate shifts. The pathway to a 30-goal, 45-assist (75 points) season is clearly illuminated as he assumes an increasingly pivotal role within the Kings` top six forward group.
Matty Beniers
C, Seattle Kraken
At just 22 years old, Matty Beniers has already established himself as a first-line center for the Seattle Kraken and one of the NHL`s premier two-way forwards – a rare feat for a player under 25. His reliability in all situations is undeniable. However, the next offensive gear has remained elusive, a necessity for a Kraken team eager to elevate its scoring prowess.
From a “breakout” perspective, this season could very well see Beniers enter the Selke Trophy conversation for the league`s best defensive forward. Ironically, while the award fundamentally celebrates defensive acumen, its winners are almost invariably accompanied by significant offensive production (a narrative quirk many analysts find exasperating). Beniers will undoubtedly see increased time on both special teams units. New Kraken coach Lane Lambert`s philosophy of an aggressive penalty kill, encouraging scoring chances from shorthanded situations, perfectly aligns with Beniers` existing capabilities. This, combined with top-line minutes and power-play reps, should provide the impetus needed to boost his offensive output. After a 57-point rookie campaign in a second-line role, navigating tougher top-line matchups, an increase to over 60 points while continuing to effectively neutralize opponents` best players would represent a substantial step forward in his career arc, undeniably placing him in the Selke dialogue.
Zach Benson
LW, Buffalo Sabres
For Zach Benson, the trajectory towards a breakout season seems directly tied to a promotion, specifically to the top line alongside dynamic talents like Tage Thompson and Josh Norris. Whether he cements that role or slides into a prominent second-line center position, Benson is primed for a significant surge across virtually all statistical categories.
Having posted a respectable 28 points last season with an average ice time of under 15 minutes per game, Benson is slated to see his deployment extend to approximately 19 minutes per contest this season. Crucially, he will also receive more power-play opportunities and play consistently with superior linemates than in previous campaigns. When these factors coalesce, a doubling of his offensive production from last season, landing him in the 55-60 point range, becomes a distinct possibility. While he will undoubtedly face more challenging defensive assignments against top-pairing defenders, Benson`s innate ability to generate offense should thrive with enhanced talent around him and increased time spent in the offensive zone. The Buffalo Sabres are clearly banking on his evolution this season, making a 22-goal, 35-assist (57 points) season a tangible and reachable target for the 2023 first-round pick.
Cole Perfetti
C, Winnipeg Jets
The departure of Nikolaj Ehlers to Carolina has created a distinct vacuum in the Winnipeg Jets` offensive hierarchy, a void Cole Perfetti is perfectly positioned to fill. Coupled with his standout performance during the Jets` recent playoff run, there remains no credible argument to deny him a consistent spot on the top power-play unit or sustained minutes within the top six forward group. This isn`t just an opportunity; it`s a mandate.
With increased exposure at both even strength and on special teams, the notion of Perfetti transforming into a 70-point player in 2025-26 shifts from speculation to genuine expectation. Elevating his ice time from 15 to 17 minutes per game will naturally lead to a greater volume of shooting opportunities. Should Perfetti maintain his shooting percentage from the past two seasons, he is well-equipped to notch between 25 and 30 goals. The increased power-play time, a crucial element for any modern offensive breakout, will inherently boost his overall production. It appears that the long-awaited “Perfetti time” has finally arrived in Winnipeg, and he is undeniably prepared to seize this well-earned opportunity and run with it.
Logan Stankoven
C, Carolina Hurricanes
Logan Stankoven’s trajectory received a significant boost following his trade from Dallas to Carolina, illustrating how a change of scenery and system can unlock latent potential. The Carolina Hurricanes promptly deployed the diminutive yet dynamic center as their second-line pivot, a decision that yielded immediate and rewarding results.
Similar to Perfetti, Stankoven is projected to see his ice time increase to approximately 17 minutes per game this season, a two-minute bump from his previous average. Regardless of whether he finds himself flanked by the likes of Andrei Svechnikov or the newly acquired Nikolaj Ehlers on his left, he will be playing alongside highly skilled forwards capable of contributing significantly to point totals. Stankoven`s exceptional playmaking ability holds the potential to be the catalyst that finally propels Svechnikov to that long-anticipated surge in goal production. Should he skate with Ehlers, the combination of two dual-threat offensive players promises a prolific partnership, with Stankoven possessing the finishing touch for the chances Ehlers generates. Irrespective of his specific linemates, the significant upgrade in offensive talent surrounding him, coupled with his increased opportunity, should culminate in a substantial increase in production for the young Hurricanes center.
The NHL is a dynamic stage where potential meets opportunity, and these players represent the cutting edge of that evolution for the 2025-26 season. From foundational centers poised to lead franchises to dynamic wingers ready to explode offensively, the confluence of their development, team strategy, and individual drive paints a compelling picture. As the puck drops on the new season, observing which of these predictions blossom into undeniable reality will be one of the league`s most intriguing storylines.
