Stanley Cup Final preview: Panthers vs. Oilers II

The Stanley Cup playoffs represent one of the most physically and mentally demanding tournaments in sports. Consequently, it`s rare for a team to reach the Stanley Cup Final in consecutive years. It`s even more unusual for the same two teams to face off again in back-to-back Cup Finals.

Yet, that is precisely what is set to happen in 2025. Following a dramatic seven-game series in 2024 where the Florida Panthers initially took a commanding 3-0 lead, only to lose the next three games to the Edmonton Oilers before ultimately winning Game 7 to claim their first-ever Cup, these two teams are ready for a rematch, starting with Game 1 on Wednesday.

How have these teams evolved since their 2024 meeting? How confident should each club feel about their goaltending situation right now? And what are the potential X factors and major questions surrounding each team as they head into this highly anticipated sequel?

ESPN reporters Ryan S. Clark and Kristen Shilton offer their analysis and breakdown before this heavyweight rematch.

How have these teams improved compared to last season?

Edmonton Oilers

Edmonton appears to have developed a more ruthless edge, likely a direct result of their experience against Florida in the 2024 Stanley Cup Final. The Oilers came incredibly close to pulling off one of the greatest comebacks in NHL history, only to fall short in Game 7 after initially trailing the series 3-0.

This postseason, they have mastered the art of the comeback while also learning how to prevent opponents from doing the same. They lost the first two games of their first-round series against the Los Angeles Kings but responded by winning four straight. In Game 1 of the second round against the Vegas Golden Knights, they gave up the first two goals but then set a Stanley Cup playoff record with their fifth consecutive comeback victory. Even after the Golden Knights secured a last-second win in Game 3, the Oilers shut them out in the following two games to clinch the series.

This pattern continued in the Western Conference Final against the Dallas Stars. The Stars scored six unanswered goals to win Game 1, but the Oilers then allowed a total of just five goals across the next four games to punch their ticket to the Cup Final. This demonstrates a newfound resilience and defensive structure after falling behind.

Florida Panthers

Florida possessed good organizational depth last season, but this year, their depth is truly exceptional.

They have had 19 different players score a goal this postseason, compared to 15 in the 2024 playoffs. Florida is also averaging more goals per game (3.88) and conceding fewer (2.29) than they did last year. Their power play has been significantly more effective (23.2% vs. 18.5%), and their penalty kill (87.9%) ranks as the best in this year`s playoffs.

The Panthers` collective commitment to defensive play has been particularly noticeable. They have allowed fewer shots this postseason and have successfully neutralized some of the league`s most potent offensive teams. The Tampa Bay Lightning, who led the NHL in regular-season scoring, were limited to just 12 goals over five games in their first-round series against Florida. Goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky`s statistics are stronger this year than they were last season.

General Manager Bill Zito made key roster additions in Brad Marchand, who has been an outstanding third-line forward, and Seth Jones, a reliable presence on the defense. Florida has found the right balance of physicality and skill, making them a formidable opponent for every team they`ve faced so far.

How are these teams weaker than last season?

Edmonton Oilers

The Oilers` penalty kill, which was among the best in league history last season, has struggled at times this year. A major factor in their run to the Cup Final in 2024 was a penalty kill success rate of 94.3%. While they are back in the Final, their short-handed performance this postseason has been successful just 66% of the time, ranking as the third-worst rate in the playoffs.

What accounts for this difference? Primarily, it`s a change in personnel. Cody Ceci, Vincent Desharnais, and Ryan McLeod were crucial players who ranked among the top eight in short-handed ice time for the Oilers last postseason. All three were not playing for the team this season.

Furthermore, there was the situation with Mattias Ekholm. He led the Oilers in short-handed ice time last postseason with 68:49, more than 12 minutes ahead of second-place Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. The good news for Edmonton is that Ekholm returned to the lineup in Game 5 against the Stars after missing the entire playoffs up to that point due to an undisclosed injury.

Florida Panthers

Frankly, it`s difficult to find significant weaknesses in the Panthers` game. However, there have been moments where Florida looked less than championship-caliber.

The early games in their second-round series against the Toronto Maple Leafs exposed Florida`s vulnerability to defending rushes against elite offensive talent. This issue reappeared in Games 4 and 5 against the Carolina Hurricanes, where Florida seemed more flat-footed and prone to turnovers against faster forwards.

This was an area the Panthers didn`t struggle with as much last season. Florida is averaging more giveaways per 60 minutes this postseason (12.23) compared to a season ago (9.67), and Edmonton is capable of capitalizing on errors with their speed and skill. Effective puck management and protection will be paramount for the Panthers in this series.

Goaltender Confidence Ratings

Edmonton Oilers: 8.5/10

May 10 marked a turning point for the Oilers and goaltender Stuart Skinner. That was the day coach Kris Knoblauch reinstated Skinner as the starter for Game 3 against the Golden Knights.

Knoblauch had previously benched Skinner after he allowed 12 goals in the first two games of the series against the Kings, leading to Calvin Pickard taking over. However, Pickard sustained an injury in Game 2 against the Golden Knights, necessitating Skinner`s return for Game 3.

Since his return, Skinner has become one of the Oilers` most vital players. He recorded shutouts against the Golden Knights in the final two games of that series and also posted a shutout against the Stars in the conference final.

While the shutouts answered some questions, concerns remained about whether the Oilers could win games without Skinner being perfect or getting a shutout. He addressed those concerns by posting a .920 save percentage over the final three games of the conference final, effectively shutting down Dallas and securing the series victory.

Florida Panthers: 9/10

Sergei Bobrovsky has elevated his performance in every series Florida has played this postseason, and his recent statistics are increasingly impressive.

Through the first five games against Tampa Bay in the first round and the initial three games against Toronto in the second round, Bobrovsky`s record was 5-3 with an .875 save percentage and a 2.94 goals-against average – relatively ordinary numbers. However, something clicked in the second round, and `Playoff Bob` became exceptional; in Games 4-7 against the Leafs and throughout the entire Eastern Conference Final, Bobrovsky went 7-2 with a .944 save percentage and a 1.34 goals-against average. Notably, he also secured two shutouts during this period.

Bobrovsky`s least effective performance in the past two weeks was Game 5 against Carolina, where he allowed three goals on 20 shots, the most he had given up since Game 3 against Toronto.

Bobrovsky has repeatedly proven his resilience and skill. He has experienced both success and failure during a Cup Final run, including being pulled in Game 4 last year during a difficult 8-1 loss for the Panthers. Bobrovsky is a veteran goaltender currently playing at the peak of his abilities and will aim to outduel Skinner once again in this year`s goaltending matchup.

X factors for the Cup Final

Edmonton Oilers

How will the Oilers manage without Zach Hyman for the entire series? Hyman was Edmonton`s leading goal scorer last postseason with 16 goals. This season, he has contributed significantly in a different capacity, serving as their most physically impactful player. Hyman led the NHL in hits this postseason with 111 and added another layer to an already versatile team.

The injury he sustained in Game 4 against Dallas means he will miss the remainder of the playoffs. This loss raises several questions: Who will step up to fill the physical void? Who will take his place in the top six forward group? Who will fill his spot on the power play?

In their first game without Hyman, the Oilers demonstrated their depth once again. Five forwards finished with more than five hits, and two of those players – Evander Kane and Kasperi Kapanen – scored in the series-clinching Game 5. This highlights that Hyman wasn`t the only Oilers skater with a physical edge. Entering Game 1 of the Final, the Oilers have five players ranked in the top 25 for hits this postseason.

Florida Panthers

How will Florida`s star players match up against Edmonton`s? As mentioned, the Panthers have had 19 different goal scorers this postseason, and so have the Oilers. Both teams possess considerable depth.

However, Edmonton`s Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl lead all playoff scorers with 26 and 25 points, respectively. The Panthers` top two point producers are Aleksander Barkov (with 17) and Sam Bennett (16). Bennett also leads Florida in goals with 10, making him the only Panther with a double-digit goal total.

For Florida to succeed, key players like Barkov, Bennett, Sam Reinhart (four goals and 13 points), Carter Verhaeghe (six goals and 14 points), and Matthew Tkachuk (five goals and 16 points) all need to perform at their best from the outset of this series. The Oilers are opportunistic, explosive, and equally dangerous at five-on-five as they are on the power play. How Florida counters this by not only containing Edmonton`s stars but also consistently generating offense from their own key players could be the deciding factor in this matchup.

Big questions before Game 1

Can a team defined by its ability to adjust continue to make the right strategic changes?

The Oilers have demonstrated a remarkable ability to make major adjustments throughout these playoffs. This was evident in their comeback from a 2-0 series deficit against the Kings. They also made strategic changes to silence the Golden Knights – a team that ranked among the top five in goals per game in the regular season – limiting them in the final two games of their series. Furthermore, they adapted after allowing six goals to the Stars in Game 1 of the conference final, conceding only five goals combined over the subsequent four games.

Their ability to find defensive consistency without Mattias Ekholm was another significant adjustment. They navigated a goaltending change, going from Skinner to Pickard and back to Skinner, ultimately returning to the Cup Final despite being without Zach Hyman.

Will this continued ability to make effective adjustments be the difference between repeating last season`s defeat and winning the Stanley Cup for the first time since 1990?

How will penalties influence this series?

Florida excels at playing physically without consistently crossing the line into excessive penalties, yet they still spend a considerable amount of time in the penalty box. Can the Panthers find the right balance here, especially knowing that the Oilers possess a dominant power play that scored six goals with the man advantage – at least one in each game – during the Western Conference Final against Dallas?

Florida is by far the most penalized team in the playoff field, which is part and parcel of being a team focused on physicality and averaging the most hits (47.05 per game) in the postseason. Conversely, Florida has also drawn more penalties than any other team.

This creates an intriguing dynamic that could impact the Panthers in one of two ways. Will their physical play frustrate the Oilers while staying disciplined enough to avoid constant penalties? Or will Edmonton`s speed and dynamism force the Panthers into taking costly penalties?

Special teams suddenly become a critical battleground. Edmonton holds the edge on the power play, while Florida boasts superior penalty-killing prowess. The back-and-forth maneuvering and potential for gamesmanship related to penalties will be fascinating to watch.