Despite McLaren demonstrating superior car speed in the initial races of the 2025 Formula 1 season, a strategic masterstroke by Red Bull during qualifying for the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix has positioned Max Verstappen to potentially take the lead in the world championship standings.
McLaren`s impressive pace in Jeddah practice sessions led many to anticipate a front-row lockout for Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri. However, Saturday`s qualifying session unfolded with dramatic twists.
Championship leader Norris`s crash early in Q3 relegated him to 10th on the starting grid, significantly diminishing his chances of maintaining his championship lead over Piastri and Verstappen.
Norris`s incident also shortened the Q3 session, leaving just enough time for drivers to attempt two flying laps, an option realistically viable only for Verstappen and Mercedes` George Russell, who still had fresh soft tyres available.
Piastri had already set a lap time before the red flag caused by Norris`s crash, using up one of his two sets of new soft tyres.
Red Bull capitalized on the situation. Verstappen was sent out for an initial run, securing provisional pole position and applying pressure to his rivals.
While Russell and then Piastri briefly topped the timesheets, Verstappen, after a quick pit stop for fresh tyres, reclaimed pole position, edging out Piastri by a mere fraction of a second.
Verstappen`s ability to achieve provisional pole on his first run was particularly impressive, considering he carried enough fuel for two attempts.
Verstappen Credits Strategy, Horner Highlights Tight Margins
Verstappen explained that Norris`s crash necessitated a change in approach. He was initially uncertain of the best strategy, but his engineer, Gianpiero Lambiase, suggested fueling the car for two laps. This involved completing the first lap on used out-lap tyres, followed by a pit stop for new ones. Verstappen acknowledged this strategy meant carrying extra fuel, making the first lap slightly slower, but ultimately deemed it the correct decision for building confidence and pushing to the limit.
Red Bull team principal Christian Horner revealed the strategy left a narrow 25-second window for Verstappen to execute his two runs. He praised Verstappen`s exceptional driving, particularly his ability to set a quick first lap despite carrying extra fuel and then deliver an outstanding final lap.
Mercedes` Missed Opportunity?
Russell found himself in a similar position to Verstappen after Norris`s crash, but Mercedes opted for a single run in the final moments of qualifying.
Russell mentioned that the possibility of two runs was discussed, but the team`s decision to go for one ultimately meant he had to drive more cautiously on his attempt.
He explained that while starting on new tyres and switching to used tyres later was considered, he wasn`t involved in every pit wall conversation and trusted the team`s judgment. However, knowing he had only one lap, especially on a challenging track like Jeddah, required full commitment. Russell felt he had to be too conservative with tyre temperature management into Turn 1, costing him lap time due to slightly overheating tyres.
Piastri disclosed that McLaren also considered a two-run strategy but decided against it. Having already set a competitive lap time, he felt another run wasn`t necessary. He weighed the benefits of learning from an extra run against the potential disruption, especially given the tight time constraints and the need to fuel for two laps. McLaren, having already completed several consecutive runs on new tyres, opted for a single final lap, which Piastri believed was the optimal choice for them.
Piastri Confident, Verstappen Wary About Race Pace
Verstappen`s pole position sets the stage for him to potentially lead the championship if he wins the race on Sunday, provided Norris doesn`t finish second. Verstappen trails Norris by eight points, with Piastri a further three points behind.
However, Piastri is considered the race favorite. McLaren`s race pace advantage over their rivals has been more pronounced due to reduced tyre degradation, particularly in warmer conditions.
For Piastri, a strong start, maintaining at least second place, will be crucial. This would give McLaren opportunities to employ undercut or overcut strategies against Verstappen in what is anticipated to be a one-stop race, assuming no safety car interventions.
Piastri expressed confidence in McLaren`s pace, noting that Red Bull and Verstappen appeared more competitive in Jeddah than in Bahrain. He suggested the track characteristics, similar to Suzuka with numerous high-speed corners, might explain Red Bull`s improved performance. He remains optimistic about McLaren`s chances and highlighted the numerous DRS zones in Jeddah as a positive factor compared to Suzuka.
Piastri referenced Suzuka because Verstappen`s dominant win there followed a similar qualifying upset. However, overtaking is significantly more difficult at Suzuka compared to the Jeddah Corniche Circuit. McLaren has indicated a more aggressive approach after Verstappen`s Japan victory, making Sunday`s race a crucial test of this new strategy.
Verstappen, a two-time winner in Jeddah, expressed uncertainty about his race pace relative to Piastri. He admitted his long-run pace wasn`t as strong as McLaren`s drivers in practice. While he pledged to give his best, he`s unsure if it will be enough to hold off Piastri. He noted that the car showed improvement compared to Friday practice, which he hopes will aid tyre management during the race. Despite the unknowns, he remains determined to compete.
Russell Eyes First Win of 2025
Russell, starting third, remains a contender, just 14 points behind Norris in the championship. To contend for a Mercedes victory, he likely needs to overtake Piastri at the start.
Russell acknowledged McLaren as the favorites, echoing Verstappen`s sentiment about their superior pace. He suggested that if Piastri leads after Turn 1, the race might resemble Bahrain. However, if the starting order is maintained, he anticipates a close race until the pit stops.
Russell pointed out the change in tyre compounds, with this year`s medium tyre being equivalent to last year`s soft, which was rarely used in the race. Concerns about tyre hardness, evident in Japan, prompted calls for softer compounds. Russell hopes this change might lead to more diverse race strategies beyond a straightforward one-stop approach.
McLaren`s Disappointment Despite Strong Car
Despite McLaren`s outward optimism post-qualifying, Bernie Collins from Sky Sports F1 suggested that the prospect of Verstappen leading the championship after races where McLaren had dominant car potential would be concerning for the team.
Collins emphasized McLaren`s strong race car but noted the importance of converting potential into results, particularly in qualifying, similar to the Japan race. While Oscar Piastri secured a front-row start, Collins believes the team might be slightly disappointed it wasn`t pole position and that questions will be raised about maximizing the car`s performance in qualifying. With the unpredictable nature of the Jeddah race, Collins stressed the need for McLaren to be ready to seize any opportunities. Despite Zak Brown`s positive public comments, Collins suspects internal disappointment within McLaren.
