If you were choosing a team for a Champions League miracle, Real Madrid, with their iconic white jerseys, would be a top pick. Playing at the Santiago Bernabeu on a big European night often unnerves opponents. Real Madrid coach Carlo Ancelotti alluded to this after their recent match.
“In football, anything is possible. Special things often occur at the Bernabeu,” he noted.
A legendary atmosphere and a storied past are valuable assets in these crucial games. However, they may not be enough to overturn a three-goal deficit against Europe`s strongest defense.
Firstly, did Real Madrid actually look like a team capable of scoring three goals at Arsenal`s Emirates Stadium? Their nine shots, resulting in just half an expected goal (xG), suggest otherwise. Early mistakes from Arsenal`s Jakub Kiwior and Bukayo Saka did give Madrid some opportunities. A brilliant play on the left wing by Jude Bellingham created Kylian Mbappe`s best chance, but his shot was too close to the goalkeeper, David Raya. Once Arsenal tightened up after the initial phase, Madrid struggled to break through Arsenal`s solid defense, especially William Saliba.
Saliba`s teammates were equally strong. Arsenal`s defensive strength is built on excellent defenders. Jurrien Timber effectively contained Vinicius Junior, and Myles Lewis-Skelly, despite his youth, showed remarkable anticipation. Rodrygo found no space against them.
Alongside Saliba, Jakub Kiwior, initially seen as a potential weak point filling in for Gabriel, proved his quality. He said after the game, “I felt really good. After a game like this, you feel great, but it`s not over. The hardest part is still ahead. I`m staying calm.”
This composed attitude is shared by the entire Arsenal team. Having learned from past struggles, they are now a relentlessly serious team, reflecting their manager`s mission to change the club`s culture. They are resilient when conceding goals and will make it incredibly difficult for Madrid to get shots away. Their defensive structure is impeccable, prompting Fulham`s Sander Berge to comment that it`s “as if someone is remote-controlling them from the stands.”
However, their most effective defense is often their possession of the ball. They only attack when their defensive setup is secure. In the Premier League, Arsenal allows the fewest counter-attack shots, which is impressive given their attacking commitment.
The last time Arsenal conceded three goals was in December 2023 against Luton (4-3). It has been almost two years since they lost by a three-goal margin, the exact margin they need to overcome against Madrid to force extra time.
Brentford managed a draw against Arsenal on Saturday, but their manager, Thomas Frank, having seen his team limited to just three shots and 0.24 xG, can vouch for Arsenal`s defensive strength. “Looking from the outside, Arsenal work extremely hard,” said Frank. “They are very strong defensively, especially on set pieces. I think they will be fine.”
One might argue that while Arsenal can contain Fulham and Brentford, Madrid is a different level. While true, this wasn`t evident in the first leg. Now, with work to do, Madrid`s approach will likely change. Jude Bellingham may focus less on tracking Martin Odegaard and Bukayo Saka and more on supporting Mbappe and Vinicius Junior. Rodrygo, who spent much of the first leg helping Federico Valverde defensively, will also need to attack more. Madrid will need to go all-out from the start.
Given their talent, scoring three or more goals isn`t impossible. However, the question is what happens when Arsenal bypasses Madrid`s press, which has been inconsistent? Opponents rarely get the chance to exploit space against Declan Rice in midfield, as Brentford showed on Saturday.
Then there`s the danger of Saka and Odegaard finding space to attack, or Vinicius not tracking back, leaving David Alaba exposed against Arsenal`s dangerous wing play. Gabriel Martinelli on the other wing is also a threat in open space.
In their last 10 games, playing their usual style, Madrid has only one clean sheet, a narrow win against Alaves with 10 men. Opponents have had 10 or more shots in 15 of their last 17 matches. Across all competitions this season, Ancelotti`s team has conceded over one expected goal per game, and in the Champions League, this rises to 1.4 xG, with their only clean sheet against a weak Brest side. Injuries have weakened their defense, making them vulnerable.
While two brilliant free kicks from Rice turned the first leg in Arsenal`s favor, in open play, Arsenal created more chances. A not fully fit Saka easily broke towards the byline and created opportunities from cutbacks. This was against a Madrid team that seemed content to keep the game tight, planning to win at the Bernabeu in the return leg.
That strategy backfired significantly. No one at Arsenal is taking victory for granted, but if they weren`t facing Real Madrid, the 15-time European champions, would anyone doubt their chances? Based on the first leg, Madrid`s reputation might be their strongest weapon. But against this Arsenal team, it probably won`t be enough.
