The hockey season for the top draft prospects has concluded. Some players in the top 10 competed until the very end, leaving a strong impression on scouts and executives at the Memorial Cup. With the combine currently underway in Buffalo, New York, prospects are participating in physical tests and rigorous interviews with interested teams. The combine provides teams with an opportunity to ask unconventional questions, understand players` personalities, and in some cases, assess the impact of injuries.
There is potential for movement in the draft rankings, as combine test results do influence model outputs. Furthermore, this current list weights scouting at 40% of the overall evaluation. The final rankings, set to be published on June 23, will incorporate scouting, statistical projections, off-ice assessments, and industry intelligence to varying degrees, which may cause some players to move up or down the board.
This set of rankings evaluates players based on five key criteria:
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The Rank: Determined by attributed value, which considers projection, the certainty of that projection, and scouting observations.
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The NHL Projection: Calculates the most probable outcome for a player, weighting the projection formula at 70% and scouting at 30%. The final rankings will also include a player`s potential NHL ceiling.
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The NHL Floor: Uses the same formula to represent the least favorable outcome with a probability exceeding 10%. For example, if a player has an 11% chance of becoming a fourth-line winger or seventh defenseman, that would be their floor. For some prospects, the floor might be playing outside the NHL, such as in the AHL or KHL.
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Projection Confidence: Based solely on the projection formula and has two components: confidence and volatility. Confidence is categorized into four tiers: High, Fair, Medium, and Low. This indicates the model`s certainty that the player will reach their NHL projection for at least 200 NHL games. The confidence level affects the player`s value and thus their rank. High confidence is above 80%, Fair is 60% to 79%, Medium is 35% to 59%, and Low is below 35%. Volatility also has four categories: Low, Slight, Medium, and High. Volatility reflects the range of potential outcomes for a player`s career. Low volatility means a smaller range of potential results (e.g., #1 defenseman to top-pair defenseman), while High volatility indicates a wide range with relatively even distributions around the NHL projection. This can be influenced by factors like their league, scoring changes, injuries, or significant performance shifts. Many players with high volatility are considered `raw` in their development.
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Strengths: Highlights each player`s most notable abilities.
`Boom or bust` is a term that encompasses aspects of both confidence and volatility. It describes a player who is projected either to reach their NHL potential significantly or is unlikely to play 200 NHL games. The distinction between a low-confidence/high-volatility projection and a boom-or-bust projection often relates to factors like injuries impacting the projection`s sample size or the player competing in a league with a less established history of producing NHL players, making the most likely outcome harder to pinpoint.
Another factor considered is the `Russian factor,` where highly skilled Russian players might be more inclined to return to Russia if they don`t achieve their NHL projection.
Based on my model, here is the ranking of the top 64 prospects:
- 1. Matthew Schaefer, D, Erie (OHL)
- 2. Michael Misa, F, Saginaw (OHL)
- 3. James Hagens, F, Boston College (NCAA)
- 4. Porter Martone, F, Brampton (OHL)
- 5. Caleb Desnoyers, F, Moncton (QMJHL)
- 6. Anton Frondell, F, Djurgardens (Allsvenskan)
- 7. Roger McQueen, F, Brandon (WHL)
- 8. Viktor Eklund, F, Djurgardens (Allsvenskan)
- 9. Jake O`Brien, F, Brantford (OHL)
- 10. Jackson Smith, D, Tri-City (WHL)
- 11. Brady Martin, F, Sault Ste. Marie (OHL)
- 12. Radim Mrtka, D, Seattle (WHL)
- 13. Carter Bear, F, Everett (WHL)
- 14. Justin Carbonneau, F, Blainville-Boisbriand (QMJHL)
- 15. Logan Hensler, D, Wisconsin (NCAA)
- 16. Lynden Lakovic, F, Moose Jaw (WHL)
- 17. Kashawn Aitcheson, D, Barrie (OHL)
- 18. Braeden Cootes, F, Seattle (WHL)
- 19. Cameron Schmidt, F, Vancouver (WHL)
- 20. Cole Reschny, F, Victoria (WHL)
- 21. Cameron Reid, D, Kitchener (OHL)
- 22. Cullen Potter, F, Arizona State (NCAA)
- 23. Benjamin Kindel, F, Calgary (WHL)
- 24. Malcolm Spence, F, Erie (OHL)
- 25. Joshua Ravensbergen, G, Prince George (WHL)
- 26. Blake Fiddler, D, Edmonton (WHL)
- 27. Sascha Boumedienne, D, Boston University (NCAA)
- 28. Jack Murtagh, F, USNTDP (USHL)
- 29. Jack Nesbitt, F, Windsor (OHL)
- 30. Bill Zonnon, F, Rouyn-Noranda (QMJHL)
- 31. William Moore, F, USNTDP (USHL)
- 32. Ryker Lee, F, Madison (USHL)
- 33. Nathan Behm, F, Kamploops (WHL)
- 34. Milton Gastrin, F, Modo (J20 Nationell)
- 35. Shane Vansaghi, F, Michigan State (NCAA)
- 36. Jakob Ihs-Wozniak, F, Lulea (J20 Nationell)
- 37. Jack Ivankovic, G, Brampton (OHL)
- 38. Henry Brzustewicz, D, London (OHL)
- 39. Cole McKinney, F, USNTDP (USHL)
- 40. Eric Nilson, F, Orebro (J20 Nationell)
- 41. Vaclav Nestrasil, F, Muskegon (USHL)
- 42. Benjamin Kevan, F, Des Moines (USHL)
- 43. Ivan Ryabkin, F, Muskegon (USHL)
- 44. Daniil Prokhorov, F, St. Petersburg (MHL)
- 45. Carter Amico, D, USNTDP (USHL)
- 46. Max Psenicka, D, Portland (WHL)
- 47. Luca Romano, F, Kitchener (OHL)
- 48. Alexander Zharovsky, F, Ufa (MHL)
- 49. Kurban Limatov, D, Moscow (MHL)
- 50. Mason West, F, Edina (USHS)
- 51. Kristian Epperson, F, Saginaw (OHL)
- 52. Matthew Gard, F, Red Deer (WHL)
- 53. William Horcoff, F, Michigan (NCAA)
- 54. Jacob Rombach, D, Lincoln (USHL)
- 55. Peyton Kettles, D, Swift Current (WHL)
- 56. Hayden Paupanekis, F, Kelowna (WHL)
- 57. David Bedkowski, D, Owen Sound (OHL)
- 58. Ethan Czata, F, Niagara (OHL)
- 59. Haoxi `Simon` Wang, D, Oshawa (OHL)
- 60. Theo Stockselius, F, Djurgardens (J20 Nationell)
- 61. Eddie Genborg, F, Linkoping (SHL)
- 62. Charlie Trethewey, D, USNTDP (USHL)
- 63. Alexei Medvedev, G, London (OHL)
- 64. L.J. Mooney, F, USNTDP (USA)
1. Matthew Schaefer, D, Erie (OHL)
NHL Projection: No. 1 defenseman
NHL Floor: Top-pair defenseman
Projection Confidence: High confidence, low volatility
Strengths: Mobility, puck moving, creativity, rush activation
2. Michael Misa, F, Saginaw (OHL)
NHL Projection: Elite No. 1 center
NHL Floor: Second-line winger
Projection Confidence: High confidence, slight volatility
Strengths: Offensive instincts, explosiveness, transition offense, two-way play
3. James Hagens, F, Boston College (NCAA)
NHL Projection: First-line center
NHL Floor: Second-line center
Projection Confidence: Fair confidence, slight volatility
Strengths: Transition play, speed, hockey sense, puck handling
4. Porter Martone, F, Brampton (OHL)
NHL Projection: Second-line power forward
NHL Floor: Middle-six winger
Projection Confidence: High confidence, slight volatility
Strengths: Playmaking, scoring, hockey sense, size
5. Caleb Desnoyers, F, Moncton (QMJHL)
NHL Projection: Top-six, two-way center
NHL Floor: Third-line checking center
Projection Confidence: High confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Two-way play, quick hands, playmaking, efficient puck play
6. Anton Frondell, F, Djurgardens (Allsvenskan)
NHL Projection: Second-line center
NHL Floor: Third-line scoring winger
Projection Confidence: Fair confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Versatility, two-way play, elite release, forechecking
7. Roger McQueen, F, Brandon (WHL)
NHL Projection: First-line scoring center
NHL Floor: Injury-shortened career
Projection Confidence: Low confidence, high volatility
Strengths: Speed, puck handling, quick release, size
8. Viktor Eklund, F, Djurgardens (Allsvenskan)
NHL Projection: Top-six scoring forward
NHL Floor: Middle-six scoring forward
Projection Confidence: High confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Motor, transition offense, two-way play, off-puck play, hard skill
9. Jake O`Brien, F, Brantford (OHL)
NHL Projection: Top-six playmaking center
NHL Floor: Middle-six scoring winger
Projection Confidence: Fair confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Playmaking, creativity, hockey sense
10. Jackson Smith, D, Tri-City (WHL)
NHL Projection: Top-four defenseman
NHL Floor: Bottom-pair defenseman
Projection Confidence: Fair confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Physicality, transition defense, mobility, puck moving
11. Brady Martin, F, Sault Ste. Marie (OHL)
NHL Projection: Second-line scoring forward
NHL Floor: Bottom-six power forward
Projection Confidence: Medium confidence, high volatility
Strengths: Motor, wall play, physicality, hard skill, competitiveness
12. Radim Mrtka, D, Seattle (WHL)
NHL Projection: Top-four shutdown defenseman
NHL Floor: Bottom-pair transition defenseman
Projection Confidence: Fair confidence, slight volatility
Strengths: Size, stick positioning and use, hockey sense
13. Carter Bear, F, Everett (WHL)
NHL Projection: Second-line versatile forward
NHL Floor: Third-line checker
Projection Confidence: Fair confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Playmaking, versatility, two-way play, motor
14. Justin Carbonneau, F, Blainville-Boisbriand (QMJHL)
NHL Projection: Second-line scoring forward
NHL Floor: Middle-six forward
Projection Confidence: Fair confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Powerful stride, playmaking, puck handling
15. Logan Hensler, D, Wisconsin (NCAA)
NHL Projection: Second-pair transition defenseman
NHL Floor: Bottom-pair defenseman
Projection Confidence: High confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Gap control, mobility, transition play
16. Lynden Lakovic, F, Moose Jaw (WHL)
NHL Projection: Middle-six scoring winger
NHL Floor: Bottom-six forward
Projection Confidence: Fair confidence, high volatility
Strengths: Speed, finishing ability, hands, size
17. Kashawn Aitcheson, D, Barrie (OHL)
NHL Projection: Second-pair defenseman
NHL Floor: Bottom-pair physical defenseman
Projection Confidence: Medium confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Physicality, competitiveness, aggression, strength
18. Braeden Cootes, F, Seattle (WHL)
NHL Projection: Middle-six two-way center
NHL Floor: Bottom-six checking winger
Projection Confidence: Fair confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Two-way play, speed, anticipation, forechecking
19. Cameron Schmidt, F, Vancouver (WHL)
NHL Projection: Second-line scoring winger
NHL Floor: AHL player
Projection Confidence: Boom or bust
Strengths: Speed, puck handling, offensive instincts, finishing ability
20. Cole Reschny, F, Victoria (WHL)
NHL Projection: Middle-six two-way center
NHL Floor: Bottom-six forward
Projection Confidence: Fair confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Two-way play, anticipation, quick hands, competitiveness
21. Cameron Reid, D, Kitchener (OHL)
NHL Projection: Top-four transition defenseman
NHL Floor: Bottom-pair defensive defenseman
Projection Confidence: Fair confidence, high volatility
Strengths: Skating, transition play, hockey sense
22. Cullen Potter, F, Arizona State (NCAA)
NHL Projection: Top-six forward
NHL Floor: Bottom-six checking winger
Projection Confidence: Fair confidence, high volatility
Strengths: Speed, agility, offensive play driving, elite release
23. Benjamin Kindel, F, Calgary (WHL)
NHL Projection: Middle-six two-way winger
NHL Floor: Bottom-six checking winger
Projection Confidence: High confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Hockey sense, transition, two-way play
24. Malcolm Spence, F, Erie (OHL)
NHL Projection: Third-line two-way winger
NHL Floor: Bottom-six winger
Projection Confidence: High confidence, slight volatility
Strengths: High-end motor, two-way play, tenacity
25. Joshua Ravensbergen, G, Prince George (WHL)
NHL Projection: No. 1 starting goaltender
NHL Floor: 1B tandem goaltender
Projection Confidence: High confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Anticipation, crisp movements, competitiveness, lateral agility
26. Blake Fiddler, D, Edmonton (WHL)
NHL Projection: Second-pair defenseman
NHL Floor: Bottom-pair physical defenseman
Projection Confidence: High confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Transition defense, in-zone defensive play, size, mobility
27. Sascha Boumedienne, D, Boston University (NCAA)
NHL Projection: Second-pair two-way defenseman
NHL Floor: Bottom-pair offensive specialist
Projection Confidence: Medium confidence, high volatility
Strengths: Skating, stick play, transition play, slap shot
28. Jack Murtagh, F, USNTDP (USHL)
NHL Projection: Third-line power forward
NHL Floor: Fourth-line forward
Projection Confidence: Fair confidence, slight volatility
Strengths: Motor, shooting, hard skill, straight-line speed
29. Jack Nesbitt, F, Windsor (OHL)
NHL Projection: Middle-six two-way center
NHL Floor: Fourth-line defensive center
Projection Confidence: Fair confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Strength, size, competitiveness, two-way play
30. Bill Zonnon, F, Rouyn-Noranda (QMJHL)
NHL Projection: Third-line two-way forward
NHL Floor: AHL player
Projection Confidence: Medium confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: High-end motor, raw playmaking, competitiveness, puck battles
31. William Moore, F, USNTDP (USHL)
NHL Projection: Third-line forward
NHL Floor: NHL depth player
Projection Confidence: Medium confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Puck protection, skating, offensive instincts, puck skill
32. Ryker Lee, F, Madison (USHL)
NHL Projection: Middle-six playmaker
NHL Floor: Bottom-six scoring depth
Projection Confidence: Boom or bust
Strengths: Hockey sense, creativity, puck handling, one-timer
33. Nathan Behm, F, Kamploops (WHL)
NHL Projection: Middle-six scoring forward
NHL Floor: Bottom-six scoring depth
Projection Confidence: Fair confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Playmaking, shooting, creativity
34. Milton Gastrin, F, Modo (J20 Nationell)
NHL Projection: Third-line two-way center
NHL Floor: Fourth-line center
Projection Confidence: Fair confidence, low volatility
Strengths: Defensive play, two-way instincts, motor
35. Shane Vansaghi, F, Michigan State (NCAA)
NHL Projection: Third-line power forward
NHL Floor: Bottom-six checking forward
Projection Confidence: High confidence, slight volatility
Strengths: Physicality, strength, competitiveness, puck skill
36. Jakob Ihs-Wozniak, F, Lulea (J20 Nationell)
NHL Projection: Middle-six scoring forward
NHL Floor: Third-line scoring depth
Projection Confidence: Medium confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Playmaking, finishing ability, offensive instincts
37. Jack Ivankovic, G, Brampton (OHL)
NHL Projection: Platoon starting goaltender
NHL Floor: High-end NHL backup
Projection Confidence: Fair confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Positioning, controlled movements, patience in save selection
38. Henry Brzustewicz, D, London (OHL)
NHL Projection: No. 4/5 transition defender
NHL Floor: AHL scoring defenseman
Projection Confidence: Medium confidence, high volatility
Strengths: Puck moving, gap control, creativity
39. Cole McKinney, F, USNTDP (USHL)
NHL Projection: Third-line, two-way center
NHL Floor: Fourth-line defensive center
Projection Confidence: Fair confidence, slight volatility
Strengths: Two-way play, penalty killing, competitiveness, finishing ability
40. Eric Nilson, F, Orebro (J20 Nationell)
NHL Projection: Bottom-six checking center
NHL Floor: AHL top-six center
Projection Confidence: Medium confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Two-way play, forechecking, competitiveness, defensive instincts
41. Vaclav Nestrasil, F, Muskegon (USHL)
NHL Projection: Top-six power forward
NHL Floor: Fourth-line physical winger
Projection Confidence: Medium confidence, high volatility
Strengths: Size, motor, two-way play, puck skill
42. Benjamin Kevan, F, Des Moines (USHL)
NHL Projection: Middle-six two-way winger
NHL Floor: Bottom-six speedster
Projection Confidence: Medium confidence, high volatility
Strengths: Speed, puck handling, transition offense
43. Ivan Ryabkin, F, Muskegon (USHL)
NHL Projection: Middle-six power forward
NHL Floor: AHL player
Projection Confidence: Boom or bust
Strengths: Quick release, creativity, physicality
44. Daniil Prokhorov, F, St. Petersburg (MHL)
NHL Projection: Middle-six power forward
NHL Floor: KHL player
Projection Confidence: Boom or bust
Strengths: Size, strength, physicality, heavy shot
45. Carter Amico, D, USNTDP (USHL)
NHL Projection: No. 4/5 transition defenseman
NHL Floor: No. 7 defenseman
Projection Confidence: Medium confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Mobility, transition defense, physicality, size
46. Max Psenicka, D, Portland (WHL)
NHL Projection: No. 4/5 two-way defenseman
NHL Floor: No. 7 defenseman
Projection Confidence: Medium confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Instincts, mobility, gap control, puck moving
47. Luca Romano, F, Kitchener (OHL)
NHL Projection: Middle-six, two-way center
NHL Floor: Bottom-six checking speedster
Projection Confidence: Medium confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Speed, transition play, motor
48. Alexander Zharovsky, F, Ufa (MHL)
NHL Projection: Middle-six scoring winger
NHL Floor: KHL player
Projection Confidence: Boom or bust
Strengths: Puck handling, instincts, creativity
49. Kurban Limatov, D, Moscow (MHL)
NHL Projection: Second-pair, two-way defenseman
NHL Floor: KHL player
Projection Confidence: Boom or bust
Strengths: Skating, mobility, aggressiveness, physicality
50. Mason West, F, Edina (USHS)
NHL Projection: Middle-six physical forward
NHL Floor: Fourth-line physical forward
Projection Confidence: Low confidence, high volatility
Strengths: Strength, physicality, size, mobility
51. Kristian Epperson, F, Saginaw (OHL)
NHL Projection: Third-line scoring winger
NHL Floor: AHL top-six forward
Projection Confidence: Medium confidence, high volatility
Strengths: Two-way play, playmaking, hockey sense
52. Matthew Gard, F, Red Deer (WHL)
NHL Projection: Bottom-six checking center
NHL Floor: Fourth-line physical center
Projection Confidence: Fair confidence, low volatility
Strengths: Strength, size, defensive play, motor
53. William Horcoff, F, Michigan (NCAA)
NHL Projection: Third-line two-way center
NHL Floor: Fourth-line physical presence
Projection Confidence: Fair confidence, slight volatility
Strengths: Defensive play, strength, size, wall play
54. Jacob Rombach, D, Lincoln (USHL)
NHL Projection: Second-pair shutdown defenseman
NHL Floor: Bottom-pair physical defenseman
Projection Confidence: Medium confidence, slight volatility
Strengths: Defensive play, puck retrievals, motor
55. Peyton Kettles, D, Swift Current (WHL)
NHL Projection: No. 4/5 shutdown defenseman
NHL Floor: Bottom-pair defenseman
Projection Confidence: Medium confidence, low volatility
Strengths: Defensive play, size, physicality
56. Hayden Paupanekis, F, Kelowna (WHL)
NHL Projection: Bottom-six defensive center
NHL Floor: Fourth-line center
Projection Confidence: Medium confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Competitiveness, size, defensive play
57. David Bedkowski, D, Owen Sound (OHL)
NHL Projection: Bottom-pair shutdown defenseman
NHL Floor: No. 7 physical defenseman
Projection Confidence: Medium confidence, slight volatility
Strengths: Physicality, size, strong stick, penalty killing
58. Ethan Czata, F, Niagara (OHL)
NHL Projection: Bottom-six checking center
NHL Floor: AHL depth
Projection Confidence: Medium confidence, slight volatility
Strengths: Penalty killing, physicality, hard skill
59. Haoxi `Simon` Wang, D, Oshawa (OHL)
NHL Projection: Second-pair two-way defenseman
NHL Floor: AHL player
Projection Confidence: Low confidence, high volatility
Strengths: Skating, mobility, size, transition defense
60. Theo Stockselius, F, Djurgardens (J20 Nationell)
NHL Projection: Third-line two-way forward
NHL Floor: AHL depth
Projection Confidence: Low confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Hockey sense, hard skill, playmaking
61. Eddie Genborg, F, Linkoping (SHL)
NHL Projection: Bottom-six checking winger
NHL Floor: Fourth-line physical winger
Projection Confidence: Medium confidence, slight volatility
Strengths: Physicality, two-way play, motor
62. Charlie Trethewey, D, USNTDP (USHL)
NHL Projection: No. 4/5 two-way defenseman
NHL Floor: Bottom-pair defenseman
Projection Confidence: Fair confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Defensive play, physicality, heavy shot, skating
63. Alexei Medvedev, G, London (OHL)
NHL Projection: 1B NHL goaltender
NHL Floor: Reliable NHL backup
Projection Confidence: Fair confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Positioning, competitiveness, anticipation, athleticism
64. L.J. Mooney, F, USNTDP (USA)
NHL Projection: Middle-six two-way scoring depth
NHL Floor: AHL top-six scoring forward
Projection Confidence: Boom or bust
Strengths: Speed, puck handling, motor
