As celebrations for the current champions wind down, attention quickly turns to the next Premier League title challenge. Predicting the outcome this early is difficult, especially considering this past season`s surprises. For instance, Liverpool, initially given a low 5.1% title probability by Opta, quickly established a significant lead and secured the league comfortably. Meanwhile, Manchester City, the heavy favorites at 82.2%, were out of contention by the new year and found themselves competing for a Champions League spot.
The transfer window will play a crucial role in shaping next season`s race, with several clubs likely to be busy. This applies to City and Liverpool, as well as aspiring teams like Newcastle United and Aston Villa aiming to climb the table. Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur, recovering from disappointing campaigns, also fit this description. While not all will challenge for the title, the unexpected nature of recent seasons suggests some could make a significant push and are worth watching.
Here`s an early look at potential contenders for the Premier League title next season.
Honorable mention: Aston Villa
Under Unai Emery, Aston Villa has consistently improved over the past two years. They recently put up a strong fight against a formidable Paris Saint-Germain before exiting the UEFA Champions League in the quarterfinals. However, at this point, they seem a step or two away from being considered a dark horse title contender. Breaking into the Premier League`s elite is challenging, especially for a team facing the demanding schedule of Europa League or Conference League football (typically Thursday-Sunday). They are strong candidates for a top-four finish, unless they make significant summer signings and the Premier League season proves unusually disruptive again.
5. Chelsea
There was a brief period when Chelsea, under Enzo Maresca with a focus on youth, seemed capable of matching Liverpool. However, the last four years have been difficult for the club. They`ve won only seven of their last 17 Premier League matches, and Cole Palmer hasn`t scored in his last 12 league appearances. Securing a Champions League spot, and the associated revenue and prestige, could help them strengthen their squad. This potential for squad upgrades is perhaps the only factor giving them an edge over Villa. Truthfully, the Blues don`t currently appear ready to mount a serious title challenge.
4. Newcastle United
Being called a dark horse implies the title is still highly likely to go elsewhere, but if any team fits the description, it`s Newcastle United. Eddie Howe`s impact mirrors Emery`s at Villa, though Newcastle seems slightly ahead currently. There`s a strong case that they`ve been among England`s most in-form teams since the new year, securing notable victories against opponents like Arsenal and Liverpool. Howe also ended the club`s 65-year trophy drought by winning the EFL Cup in March, making them one of the more exciting teams to watch domestically and potentially in Europe next season. Their prospects for another impressive campaign, however, may depend heavily on their summer transfer activity. Questions remain about retaining Alexander Isak, who has scored 22 league goals this season, and the team may need reinforcements in several areas to truly elevate their status.
3. Liverpool
As it stands, there appear to be three main title contenders: Liverpool, Arsenal, and Manchester City. Their final ranking could significantly shift based on their summer transfers. While Liverpool might still be celebrating, their low 5.1% title probability at the start of this season was partly due to not refreshing the squad. Their gamble on the experienced players having one more strong season paid off, but under Arne Slot, the club will eventually need to plan for a future without key figures like Mohamed Salah and Virgil van Dijk. The potential departure of Trent Alexander-Arnold to Real Madrid this summer adds another complexity, which might be a priority in their transfer planning. If they successfully strengthen their squad before next season, they could be favorites to retain the title. If not, they might finish lower down the league table.
2. Arsenal
A pattern seems to be emerging for Mikel Arteta`s Arsenal: always the runner-up, heading for a third consecutive second-place finish. Reaching their first Champions League semifinal in nearly two decades this season offers some consolation for not winning the league. However, their league performances this year repeatedly highlighted the Gunners` need for a clinical goal scorer to genuinely compete for the domestic title. One could argue that even if other teams fail to execute their transfer plans perfectly, Arsenal might still have enough to top the league in another imperfect Premier League season. Nevertheless, the most certain path to finishing first will likely involve acquiring the forward they clearly lack. If they don`t, pressure on Arteta is likely to increase.
1. Manchester City
While this Premier League season had its unique aspects, Manchester City remains the team to watch next season. Despite their relatively early exit from the title race this time, expectations at the Etihad Stadium will quickly reset, especially following their spending in the winter transfer window. The summer is likely to focus on rebuilding, particularly as Hugo Viana takes on his new role as director of football. He`ll be tasked with finding a replacement for Kevin De Bruyne, and City still needs to manage without Rodri while he recovers from his ACL tear. However, with Pep Guardiola still in charge and Erling Haaland poised to reassert himself as one of his generation`s leading goal scorers, it`s difficult not to view them as the team to beat.
