NHL Playoff Bubble Watch: 32 Teams’ Playoff Hopes

Florida Panthers

Record: 43-25-3, 89 points
Playoff chances: 99.9%

The Panthers are concluding the regular season with a depleted lineup due to player injuries. Matthew Tkachuk is likely sidelined until the playoffs with a lower-body injury. Dmitry Kulikov is out week-to-week with an upper-body injury.

They are hopeful that trade acquisition Brad Marchand will return soon, but defenseman Aaron Ekblad will be unavailable until the third playoff game due to violating the NHL/NHLPA Performance Enhancing Substances Program.

Stanley Cup win chances: 3.7%. Winning the Stanley Cup Final is a challenge. Reaching it in consecutive years is even tougher. Making it three times in a row? To put it in perspective: Before the Lightning`s three consecutive Finals appearances from 2019-21 — winning the Stanley Cup twice — the NHL hadn`t witnessed a team in three straight finals since the Oilers dynasty of 1983-85. The Panthers are aiming to emulate their state rivals` achievement. Stathletes ranks the Cats 10th in odds of reaching the Final (8%) and winning it all.

Tampa Bay Lightning

Record: 40-25-5, 85 points
Playoff chances: 99.9%

During their peak Stanley Cup contention years, the Lightning were among the league leaders in goals per game and top 10 in team defense, largely due to Andrei Vasilevskiy, then considered the best goalie globally.

Fast forward to 2024-25: The Lightning are again a top-scoring NHL team, thanks to another MVP-caliber season from Nikita Kucherov. While Vasilevskiy has been surpassed by Connor Hellebuyck as the top goalie, he has returned to his dominant form after a couple of average seasons. Stathletes gives the Lightning the highest probability of winning the Atlantic Division.

Stanley Cup win chances: 13.0%. Tampa Bay has the third-best chance to win the Stanley Cup. While a higher seed and a theoretically easier first-round matchup would be beneficial, the Bolts also possess a roster of seasoned playoff performers, including Jake Guentzel, a prolific postseason scorer (top 10 in goals) in the last nine postseasons.

Toronto Maple Leafs

Record: 42-25-3, 87 points
Playoff chances: 99.9%

It`s clear by now that the regular season is secondary for the Maple Leafs, except for securing a playoff spot. The focus is solely on their postseason performance. The emotional rollercoaster for the Maple Leafs and their fanbase since the 4 Nations Face-Off has been evident: a five-game winning streak, followed by five losses in six games, then three strong wins, and a loss to struggling Nashville.

Panic is setting in weeks before the playoffs. And Scott Laughton`s pointless streak and minus-5 rating since the trade deadline isn`t helping.

Stanley Cup win chances: 5.6%. The Maple Leafs` quest for their first Stanley Cup since 1967 has some favorable numbers, including an 11% chance of winning the Eastern Conference, fourth highest among conference teams. Can Joseph Woll and Anthony Stolarz provide the goaltending needed to lead the Leafs to their first championship round since the 2002 conference finals?

Ottawa Senators

Record: 37-27-5, 79 points
Playoff chances: 98.2%

Welcome to the locked-in category, Ottawa Senators. Their recent 8-2-1 run propelled them into the first wild-card spot and increased their playoff probability to over 98% — a significant improvement from around 43% in the previous Bubble Watch.

What triggered their turnaround? Starting Linus Ullmark in goal was a key factor, as he`s started 13 of the last 14 Senators games leading up to Tuesday`s game against Buffalo. The addition of Dylan Cozens at the trade deadline is paying off quickly, and their forward group is contributing significantly.

Stanley Cup win chances: 2.2%. Interestingly, Ottawa`s last trip to the Eastern Conference finals was also their last playoff appearance: 2016-17, where they lost to the Penguins in double overtime in Game 7. (A pivotal moment for the franchise.) As the first wild card, Ottawa will face the top seed in the Atlantic Division, and there`s one matchup in particular they`d favor, for Ontario`s sake.

Montreal Canadiens

Record: 33-27-9, 75 points
Playoff chances: 48.8%

The Bubble Watch reflects the NHL landscape at a specific point in time.

In January, the Habs had a 43.4% chance of making the playoffs. Then, an eight losses in 10 games stretch before the February Bubble Watch dropped those chances below 9%, placing them in the lottery-bound tier.

However, Montreal has surpassed the mediocre teams on the bubble and moved into the final wild-card spot, thanks to a 13-game stretch with only one regulation loss (8-1-3).

Stanley Cup win chances: 0.9%. The Canadiens will be underdogs in a first-round series if they reach the playoffs. Stathletes gives them only a 13% chance of advancing to the second round, which aligns with their low Stanley Cup odds.

Nevertheless, the Habs are a quintessential `team you don`t want to face in the first round`: an unexpected playoff contender with little to lose, playing with enthusiasm and confidence, and possessing game-changing players who can swing a series. Capitals fans who remember the 2010 postseason understand the potential danger of facing the Canadiens again in this scenario…

Detroit Red Wings

Record: 33-31-6, 72 points
Playoff chances: 3.0%

Last month, we questioned if Detroit`s playoff drought was ending, as they last made the playoffs in 2016. The answer seems to be `the drought continues,` as nine losses in 11 games have reduced Detroit`s projected point total from around 90 to 81.6.

Coach Todd McLellan could only do so much to turn around Detroit`s season. Ultimately, responsibility falls on the players and the general manager who built the roster.

Stanley Cup win chances: 0.1%. If the Red Wings miraculously sneak into the final wild-card spot with a strong finish — they have a 2.9% chance of taking WC2 — the odds are heavily stacked against them achieving anything significant in the playoffs.

Boston Bruins

Record: 30-33-9, 69 points
Playoff chances: 0.1%

The NHL trade deadline saw GM Don Sweeney essentially concede this season, and the team has responded accordingly. The Bruins have lost six of eight games since the deadline, following a decline that started earlier: only three wins in their last 17 games, dating back to Feb. 5.

They weren`t lottery-bound in the last Bubble Watch. They certainly are now.

Buffalo Sabres

Record: 28-35-6, 62 points
Playoff chances: 0.0%

The Sabres` postseason drought will reach 14 seasons, as a six-game losing streak after the 4 Nations Face-Off sent them plummeting in the Eastern Conference standings.

As usual, the only event for Sabres fans to anticipate in May is the draft lottery and Bill Daly revealing team logos.

Washington Capitals

Record: 47-15-8, 102 points
Playoff chances: 99.9%

Spencer Carbery is in his second season as Capitals head coach. In his first year, he transformed a Washington team expected to be in the lottery into a wild-card team, albeit with a brief playoff appearance. In Year 2, his Capitals were the first team to secure a playoff spot, marked with an `X` in the standings before April.

Alex Ovechkin`s pursuit of the goal record rightly dominates attention, but Washington`s overall performance has been a remarkable story.

Stanley Cup win chances: 9.8%. The Capitals have the fifth-best odds to win the Stanley Cup, even better than the Jets, their rivals for the Presidents` Trophy. However, the Presidents` Trophy may be a curse, as the last 11 winners have failed to reach the Stanley Cup Final, with as many losing in the first round as in the conference final (two each).

Carolina Hurricanes

Record: 43-23-4, 90 points
Playoff chances: 99.9%

The Mikko Rantanen trade saga did little to derail the Hurricanes. Their eight-game winning streak extended through the trade deadline, and they`ve won nine of their last 10 games overall.

Carolina is performing as expected: dominating puck possession, ranking in the top 10 in offense and defense, and boasting the NHL`s best penalty kill. The question is whether coach Rod Brind`Amour`s team can overcome their playoff struggles without a `rental with playoff gravitas` like Rantanen or Jake Guentzel.

Stanley Cup win chances: 14.0%. When the Hurricanes re-traded Rantanen at the deadline, questions arose about their Stanley Cup aspirations. Stathletes still gives them the second-best odds in the NHL to reach the Stanley Cup Final (25.9%) and win it all. Their post-Rantanen performance hasn`t diminished this view.

New Jersey Devils

Record: 37-28-7, 81 points
Playoff chances: 94.6%

When the Devils lost Jack Hughes to season-ending surgery on March 5, they were third in the Metro with 71 points but had gone just 9-11-3 since Jan. 1. They`ve since gone 4-4-0 leading into Monday`s game against the Canucks, barely holding onto the No. 3 seed in the division.

Adding to their woes: a long-term injury to top defenseman Dougie Hamilton and inconsistent play from starting goalie Jacob Markstrom.

Stanley Cup win chances: 1.0%. Without Jack Hughes, the Devils are unlikely to overcome the Eastern Conference powerhouses or the Western Conference elite to win the Stanley Cup this season. This is based on their performance for most of the time without him. Their 3.33 goals-against average at 5-on-5 during that period was only better than the Sabres and Blackhawks in the league.

New York Islanders

Record: 32-28-10, 74 points
Playoff chances: 28.0%

The Islanders are doing what`s necessary to remain in the playoff hunt: relying heavily on Ilya Sorokin, who has started 16 of their last 18 games; and maximizing points, going 3-0-2 in their last five games.

However, as the Isles push for the final wild-card spot, they face the seventh-toughest remaining schedule in the NHL — including multiple games against Tampa Bay and Washington.

Stanley Cup win chances: 0.4%. The odds are against the Islanders making a deep playoff run, with only a 7.5% chance of reaching the second round.

New York Rangers

Record: 34-31-6, 74 points
Playoff chances: 17.9%

The Rangers are struggling to build momentum and consistently gain points in the playoff race.

They`ve had three two-game winning streaks since the 4 Nations Face-Off; each time, they negated those gains with subsequent losing streaks.

The Rangers seemed to be improving with a win in Minnesota and a convincing victory over Columbus, an Eastern Conference playoff contender. But they followed that with three straight regulation losses at home.

It`s been one step forward, three steps back all season for this team.

Stanley Cup win chances: 0.3%. Could the Rangers elevate their game in the playoffs? They reached the conference finals last season, have an elite goalie in Igor Shesterkin, and possess offensive talent. Plus, they now have J.T. Miller`s passionate intensity. Yet, the odds suggest otherwise — just a 1.5% chance of returning to the conference finals — but it would be interesting to see.

Columbus Blue Jackets

Record: 32-29-9, 73 points
Playoff chances: 9.4%

While there`s no definitive Stadium Series curse, if there were, it might explain how the Blue Jackets transformed from a potential playoff team — and a compelling NHL story — to a team struggling late in the season.

Following their victory over Detroit at The Horseshoe on March 1, the Blue Jackets lost eight of nine games, all but one in regulation. Their scoring has dried up: 2.01 goals per game at 5-on-5 during that stretch, despite an expected goals of 3.13 per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. Columbus still has time to rewrite their narrative, but it`s running out.

Stanley Cup win chances: 0.1%. Like other Eastern Conference bubble teams, expectations are low for Columbus if they make the wild-card cut. But if the Blue Jackets overcome their challenges in a season dedicated to the memory of Johnny Gaudreau, defying the odds might be possible…

Pittsburgh Penguins

Record: 29-32-11, 69 points
Playoff chances: 0.1%

It`s remarkable that the Penguins still have a mathematical chance of making the playoffs, but they do. Their recent 5-1-1 stretch gives them a different trajectory than Boston, despite having the same points and playoff probability.

Tristan Jarry returning from the AHL to lead the Penguins to a playoff berth would be an unexpected NHL storyline, but Sidney Crosby would welcome it.

Stanley Cup win chances: 0.1%. Pittsburgh has adopted a `just get in` mentality, hoping their veterans can compete with anyone in a seven-game series. Currently, Stathletes doesn`t foresee playoff success: Pittsburgh has a minimal chance of winning a playoff round (0.1%) and winning the Stanley Cup.

Philadelphia Flyers

Record: 28-35-9, 65 points
Playoff chances: 0.0%

The Flyers were already facing long odds with the NHL`s worst goaltending, sporting a .873 save percentage this season. But Philly`s performance plummeted after March 1st, with only one win in 11 games (1-8-1).

It wasn`t just goaltending; the Flyers ranked 27th in 5-on-5 offense (1.96 goals per 60 minutes) during that stretch.

Winnipeg Jets

Record: 48-19-4, 100 points
Playoff chances: 99.9%

Occasionally, the Jets lose games that defy explanation: a likely conference champion losing to teams like the Predators, Flyers, and Sabres in the past month.

However, whenever Winnipeg falters, they quickly regain their footing as the league`s best defensive team and third-best offensive team. Having a slump-buster like Connor Hellebuyck in goal certainly helps, especially in his MVP-caliber season.

Stanley Cup win chances: 6.5%. The Jets have the sixth-best Stanley Cup odds despite being among the top two regular-season teams all year. For Winnipeg, the immediate goal is to advance beyond the first round, having been eliminated in five games in the first round for two consecutive seasons. Stathletes gives the Jets a 60% chance of advancing to the second round this postseason.

Dallas Stars

Record: 45-21-4, 94 points
Playoff chances: 99.9%

Mikko Rantanen strengthens the Stanley Cup-contending Stars. Similar to the Hurricanes` rationale for acquiring him: Dallas, like Carolina, has reached a conference ceiling, falling just short of the Stanley Cup Final.

Rantanen`s reputation as a playoff performer could be the factor that pushes Dallas to their first Cup Final since losing to Tampa Bay in 2020. With some luck and good health, it could happen.

Stanley Cup win chances: 3.0%. The Stars are unlikely to get favorable seeding, potentially facing Rantanen`s former team, the Avalanche, in the first round. Health is also a concern: Coach Peter DeBoer indicated that star defenseman Miro Heiskanen may not be ready for the playoffs` start, having been sidelined since January. Stathletes ranks Dallas 11th in Stanley Cup odds, with only a 37.1% chance of advancing past the first round. Coincidentally, the Avalanche have a 64.7% chance of moving to Round 2.

Colorado Avalanche

Record: 43-25-3, 89 points
Playoff chances: 99.9%

The Avalanche transformed a likely playoff appearance into near certainty since the last Bubble Watch, thanks to a post-4 Nations surge of 10-1-1. They scored five or more goals in six of those games.

Nathan MacKinnon has emerged as a strong contender for a second consecutive Hart Trophy, and GM Chris MacFarland`s trade deadline moves have seemingly improved an already strong team — not to mention his earlier moves to address goaltending and acquire Martin Necas for Rantanen, with Necas outscoring Rantanen since the trade.

Stanley Cup win chances: 12.0%. The Avalanche have the fourth-best Stanley Cup odds this season and second-best in the Western Conference. If they can navigate a challenging first-round series against the Stars — assuming the Wild or Blues don`t climb into the Central`s top three — Colorado`s potential is unlimited. (And a Rantanen vs. Avalanche playoff matchup would be highly anticipated.)

Minnesota Wild

Record: 40-26-5, 85 points
Playoff chances: 96.8%

Has any NHL coach been more underrated than John Hynes of the Wild this season? Minnesota lost their MVP, Kirill Kaprizov, to a lower-body injury in January; his last game was Jan. 26. This followed an earlier injury in December that sidelined him for a month. In total, their star has played only 37 games this season.

Since his January injury, the Wild have maintained an 11-8-0 record (0.575 points percentage) despite other injuries, including to center Joel Eriksson Ek. Jared Spurgeon also missed time in January. Yet, Hynes has guided them to a wild-card spot they`ve held onto.

Stanley Cup win chances: 1.0%. Despite their resilience, the Wild haven`t displayed the traits of a Stanley Cup contender this season, even when Kaprizov was healthy. At full strength, they could challenge any contender in the West. However, the Wild have only a 7.8% chance of reaching the conference finals, let alone the Stanley Cup Final.

St. Louis Blues

Record: 37-28-7, 81 points
Playoff chances: 71.1%

Credit to the Blues: in a league where many teams are vying for a playoff spot but falter, St. Louis has seized the opportunity. The Blues had only a 13.4% chance of making the playoffs in the previous Bubble Watch.

Their 12-2-1 run since Feb. 23 gives them the best points percentage in the league during that period (.833), just ahead of the Avalanche (.800). The Blues are in control of their wild-card destiny.

Stanley Cup win chances: 4.6%. The Blues have almost a 34% chance of advancing past the first round if they qualify, possibly due to a first-round matchup against Winnipeg, a team with past first-round struggles. St. Louis has longer odds of winning the Cup overall. If only there was a recent example of a Blues team with a dominant second half, solid offense, and strong goaltending from Jordan Binnington, that surprised the NHL by winning the Cup…

Utah Hockey Club

Record: 32-28-11, 75 points
Playoff chances: 13.3%

This playoff race is what the Arizona Coyotes should have experienced last season, before relocation rumors impacted their locker room and contributed to a losing streak. Instead, Utah fans are witnessing a group of young stars learning about playoff race intensity.

They`re staying competitive in the Western Conference, getting healthier at the right time, and seeing strong goaltending from Karel Vejmelka consistently. Don`t dismiss the Hockey Club yet — and note they finish the season against St. Louis.

Stanley Cup win chances: 0.7%. Playoff hockey in Salt Lake City`s inaugural NHL season would be exciting. But perhaps we should finalize a team nickname before envisioning them winning the Cup.

Nashville Predators

Record: 26-36-8, 60 points
Playoff chances: 0.0%

The Predators are projected to finish with 73 points after this disappointing season, after which they`ll assess their lottery position and re-evaluate their offseason spending spree.

Chicago Blackhawks

Record: 21-41-9, 51 points
Playoff chances: 0.0%

According to Stathletes` point projections, the Blackhawks (59 points) and Sharks (58.7 points) are in a race to the bottom to secure the highest lottery odds.

Vegas Golden Knights

Record: 42-20-8, 92 points
Playoff chances: 99.9%

The Golden Knights have led the Pacific Division for most of the season, maintaining a .657 points percentage despite numerous injuries. As of Monday, only 10 Vegas players had played in over 60 games this season. Key players like William Karlsson, Mark Stone, and Shea Theodore — expected to return soon — have missed time.

The hope is that Tomas Hertl, injured on Sunday against the Lightning, won`t be out long. Vegas has persevered with a team capable of winning offensively and defensively, ranking in the top seven in both categories.

Stanley Cup win chances: 14.3%. ESPN BET has seven teams with better Stanley Cup odds than the Golden Knights. However, Stathletes` analysis differs: Vegas has the highest probability of winning the Stanley Cup this season. The Knights also have the highest probability of reaching the conference finals (49.0%) among all league teams.

Los Angeles Kings

Record: 39-21-9, 87 points
Playoff chances: 99.9%

The Kings have been quietly impressive: They had the sixth-best points percentage in the NHL through 69 games (.630), ahead of teams like the Avalanche and Panthers. They`ve consistently been in the top three defensively this season, performing well in front of Darcy Kuemper`s improved play.

Los Angeles averages under three goals per game (2.93) and has only three 20-goal scorers. However, as Carolina and Boston recently experienced, when the Kings` offense clicks, it can be potent, as seen in their seven-goal outbursts against both teams.

Stanley Cup win chances: 4.6%. Beyond Cup odds, Kings fans are likely most interested in their 57.7% chance of reaching the second round. This would mean ending their three-season streak of first-round losses to the Oilers. Home ice could be significant: The Kings are an impressive 25-3-4 at home, including a franchise-record 14-game home point streak.

Edmonton Oilers

Record: 41-24-5, 87 points
Playoff chances: 99.5%

The Oilers are firmly in the Pacific Division`s top three, with a 96.7% chance of finishing second or third. This is crucial given that Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are currently injured.

Edmonton has been inconsistent defensively all season. However, they`ve demonstrated the extent to which a healthy and dominant McDavid and Draisaitl can carry them in the playoffs.

Stanley Cup win chances: 1.9%. This is the most surprising figure in the Bubble Watch. The Oilers were one win away from the Stanley Cup Final last season. While some players are different, the core Edmonton group experienced that playoff run. However, based on their season performance and conference strength, Stathletes calculates the Oilers` Stanley Cup probability to be lower than 13 other teams.

Calgary Flames

Record: 33-25-11, 77 points
Playoff chances: 10.6%

The Flames are 4-2-1 in their last seven games, including sweeping the New York teams. The challenge is that the team they`re chasing went 6-1 during that same period. While the Blues are surging for the second wild card, Calgary has games in hand and has played well enough to remain in contention.

As long as Dustin Wolf continues his strong rookie season, the Flames will be in this race. Unfortunately, they have no remaining games against the Blues.

Stanley Cup win chances: 0.1%. For the Flames, reaching the playoffs would be an achievement in a season where few expected them to contend. Playoff experience for players like Wolf would be a valuable outcome in itself.

Vancouver Canucks

Record: 33-26-12, 78 points
Playoff chances: 8.9%

This Canucks season has included:

• A player vs. player dispute leading to a J.T. Miller trade
• The unexpected statistical decline of Elias Pettersson
• A significant injury to starting goalie Thatcher Demko
• A major injury to star defenseman Quinn Hughes, who was having an MVP-caliber season
• Ongoing drama surrounding Hughes` availability as a late replacement in the 4 Nations Face-Off
• Trade deadline uncertainty regarding Brock Boeser`s pending free agency and contract extension
• Continued speculation about coach Rick Tocchet`s potential departure after the season

The fact that they still have a non-zero playoff probability is remarkable.

Stanley Cup win chances: 0.1%. While a Stanley Cup win would be an improbable and fitting end to a chaotic season, the odds are unfortunately against it.

Anaheim Ducks

Record: 30-32-8, 68 points
Playoff chances: 0.1%

The Ducks briefly sparked playoff hopes by winning six of seven games around the 4 Nations Face-Off, but haven`t sustained momentum. Anaheim ranks 28th in the NHL in goals per game.

Seattle Kraken

Record: 30-36-5, 65 points
Playoff chances: 0.0%

The Kraken`s fourth season might be their most disappointing: regression under a new coach and after significant offseason signings, resulting in a points percentage that`s not good enough for playoffs or bad enough for strong lottery odds. The definition of `just there.`

San Jose Sharks

Record: 19-42-9, 47 points
Playoff chances: 0.0%

As the Sharks and Blackhawks compete for the league`s worst points percentage, note that Chicago has the fifth-toughest remaining schedule, while San Jose has the eighth-hardest.