For the second consecutive year, Max Verstappen’s future with Red Bull was a major topic of discussion at the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix.
Last March, during a period of significant instability and internal power struggles within Red Bull`s leadership and Verstappen`s camp, the driver seemed close to leaving the team. That difficult phase passed, and Verstappen went on to secure his fourth consecutive drivers` championship, which temporarily eased the speculation surrounding his future.
Despite being officially contracted to Red Bull until the end of 2028, speculation has persisted because his agreement includes exit clauses.
One reported clause that could have facilitated his departure last year was tied to Red Bull motorsport advisor Helmut Marko; if Marko left the team, Verstappen could also exit.
This year, the renewed rumors are fueled by Red Bull’s inconsistent start to the season. Many, including Marko himself, believe that a premier driver will not tolerate a car that prevents him from consistently competing for titles for long.
A more standard clause in his contract is understood to allow Verstappen to terminate the agreement at the end of the season if he is outside the top three in the Drivers` Championship standings by the summer break.
The likelihood of this scenario has dramatically shifted week to week, or even session to session, during the first five rounds of the season. Verstappen has often appeared frustrated while struggling in practice sessions before finding strong pace in qualifying and the races.
After Red Bull’s weakest weekend of the season in Bahrain, where Verstappen finished sixth a week after surprisingly beating the leading McLarens in Japan, Marko expressed “great concern” about the 27-year-old’s future with the team.
While Verstappen`s pole position and second-place finish in Jeddah, which consolidated his third place in the drivers’ standings, should have calmed those concerns, weekend comments offered intriguing updates on the bigger picture surrounding his future.
Mercedes and Toto Wolff`s Position
When Red Bull was embroiled in off-track chaos at this time last year, Mercedes boss Toto Wolff publicly pursued Verstappen as he searched for a replacement for Lewis Hamilton, who was moving to Ferrari.
Wolff eventually abandoned his attempt to sign Verstappen for 2025, with Mercedes pairing Italian teenager Kimi Antonelli with George Russell. However, the Austrian hinted that he might resume his pursuit in the future.
Recent unrest at Red Bull, combined with the fact that neither Russell nor Antonelli have contracts extending beyond the end of this season, has led many to speculate that Mercedes is quietly attempting to recruit Verstappen once again.
Although Mercedes has been largely uncompetitive under the current regulations introduced in 2022, many observers predict they will start strongly with the new engine and chassis regulations arriving next year.
For this reason, they are seen as a highly credible option for Verstappen, but Wolff is publicly refusing to confirm his interest this time around.
Speaking in Jeddah, Wolff stated that Mercedes “haven`t had a conversation” with Verstappen and repeated his previous line about not “flirting outside if I`m happy in the relationship,” referring to his current driver line-up.
Despite Wolff’s remarks, few in the paddock believe he would hesitate to act if an opportunity to sign Verstappen presented itself.
Aston Martin: The Alonso Factor
Aston Martin is another team frequently linked with Verstappen. Italian media reports last week suggested the Silverstone-based team was ready to offer him a massive £226 million over three years.
Aston Martin owner Lawrence Stroll is determined to make his team a championship contender and has already put key elements in place, including building a brand-new factory and signing Adrian Newey, Verstappen’s former colleague at Red Bull, as managing technical partner.
The complication here is that Aston Martin already has two drivers under contract for the 2026 season: Fernando Alonso and the owner’s son, Lance Stroll.
Given that Lance is widely expected to remain with the team while his father is in charge, bringing Verstappen in for 2026 would likely mean the end of 43-year-old Fernando Alonso’s driving career.
When asked in Saudi Arabia if he saw Verstappen as a threat to his 2026 seat, Alonso replied that he didn`t think so, citing his contract for next year.
Alonso also added that after experiencing Aston Martin’s first Newey-designed car in 2026, he would be open to transitioning into a different role within the team, potentially facilitating Verstappen’s arrival.
During the team principals’ press conference in Jeddah, Aston Martin chief Andy Cowell chose to focus on the confirmed 2026 driver line-up rather than directly answering questions about Verstappen.
Cowell stated, “We are very fortunate to have two experienced drivers signed for the next two years,” adding that this allows him to “just focus on improving the business and the art of making a fast race car.”
The Possibility of a Sabbatical
Paddock rumors also suggest that if Verstappen were to exit his Red Bull contract early, he might consider taking a sabbatical in 2026. This would allow him to assess the competitive landscape and choose the most promising option for 2027 and subsequent years.
While it seems tough to imagine a driver at the peak of their powers stepping away for a year, Verstappen has often mentioned the challenges of the sport`s demanding schedule and how much he enjoys downtime with family and friends.
Notably, if Verstappen were to take this route, Ferrari could emerge as another option, potentially coinciding with Lewis Hamilton`s contract expiration at the end of 2026.
Verstappen has previously described Ferrari as “an amazing team to race for,” but he has also emphasized that his primary objective is always to “be in the fastest car.”
Another possibility is that he could terminate his current Red Bull deal and then re-sign with the team for an even more lucrative contract than his reported £50 million per year earnings.
This approach would also allow Verstappen to sign a shorter-term deal with Red Bull, perhaps only for 2026 instead of through to 2028, giving him more flexibility regarding his options for 2027 and beyond.
Verstappen`s Own Comments
When questioned about the situation in Jeddah, Verstappen made it clear he wasn`t looking to generate headlines.
Regarding the rumors about his future, Verstappen commented, “A lot of people are talking about it, except me.”
He added, “I just want to focus on my car, work with the people in the team. That`s the only thing that I`m thinking about in F1 at the moment. I`m very relaxed.”
Ultimately, if Red Bull can consistently provide the performance level seen in Saudi Arabia, the discussion about his future will likely fade as he competes for a potential fifth consecutive championship.
Nevertheless, the fact that both Mercedes and Aston Martin are clearly not dismissing the possibility of signing Verstappen for next season is significant, implying they still hold out hope of securing him.
It`s reasonable to assume that if Red Bull`s performance remains inconsistent, the paddock will be closely watching Verstappen`s position in the drivers` championship standings in the coming months.
