Is Manchester City`s return to the Champions League next season truly guaranteed? Let`s put aside the looming issue of 115 charges for a moment and simply analyze their recent uninspired 0-0 draw at Old Trafford. If they continue to play like this in their next seven games, it`s quite possible that at least one of Newcastle United or Aston Villa will overtake the reigning champions in the league table.
Despite their usual dominance in possession, a City side without Erling Haaland managed only nine shots in this match, totaling a meager 0.49 expected goals. This is their third-lowest expected goals tally in a Premier League game under Pep Guardiola. Unlike a victory against West Ham or a defeat to Arsenal, this performance cannot be easily dismissed as an anomaly against a top-tier team. This was a City team that has been built to create scoring opportunities for Haaland. Without him, they seemed lost and lacked a focal point in attack.
Outside of the penalty box, City can still execute their established game plan effectively. They maintained complete control of the territory, and by halftime, they had completed 224 passes in United`s half, more than three times the number their opponents managed in City`s half. The pattern was similar in the final third of the pitch. However, within the penalty area itself, United actually out-possessed City, 13 touches to 10.
City had control of the game but posed no real threat. Manchester United certainly made it difficult for them to penetrate the penalty area, effectively deploying a deep 5-4-1 defensive formation, with their defensive line positioned just 20 yards ahead of Rasmus Hojlund. However, this type of defensive challenge is something City has consistently faced for nearly a decade. They used to excel at breaking down these defensive walls. More recently, they`ve become a team that bulldozes through defenses with their powerful striker.
A team programmed to deliver the ball to Haaland appeared to be clueless about how to attack without their primary target. Kevin De Bruyne, in his final season with the club, returned to a more advanced midfield role reminiscent of the pre-Haaland era. But for this approach to be effective, he needed dynamic runners and penalty box threats making runs beyond him. While Omar Marmoush showed some spark, that was largely it, as Ilkay Gundogan and Bernardo Silva no longer possess the stamina to consistently drive into the penalty area as they once did.
Phil Foden has been given ample opportunities to prove he can be the consistent goal-scoring threat he was last season. It has been long suggested that the English international should be the player to take on De Bruyne`s mantle after his departure. The time for him to step up is now, yet the 24-year-old still seems most comfortable operating on the fringes of the game. Despite being the reigning PFA Player of the Year, his win was somewhat surprising, even considering his impressive output in the 2023-24 season. Foden has had brilliant moments in games, but looking back, how often has he truly dominated crucial matches in the way Guardiola needed him to on Sunday?
City needed Foden to elevate his game in Haaland`s absence. They got one wasted chance from him early in the second half and not much else.
If there was to be any excitement in this dull affair, it was more likely to come from a player wearing a red shirt. United set themselves the incredibly challenging task of launching rapid counter-attacks, often transitioning from their own penalty area to City`s. They came close to scoring on several occasions, starting with a free kick just outside the box earned by a solo fast break from Alejandro Garnacho. With a better connection from the young Argentine at the far post, Diogo Dalot could have had a brilliant assist. Patrick Dorgu also came close, and a powerful shot from Joshua Zirkzee in the second half could have also broken the deadlock.
Underlying all of United`s positive play was the exceptional performance of Bruno Fernandes. Attacks ignited whenever the ball reached him, with every pass perfectly timed to threaten the City defense. No United player delivered the ball into the final third more often, created more chances, or won possession back more frequently. Across both teams, he was the only player who appeared truly determined to gamble and push for a victory.
Given City`s current situation, their lack of ambition is puzzling. Aston Villa gained points this weekend and are in a rich vein of form that few other top-five teams can match. Newcastle have two games in hand, and winning just one of them would put them above City in the top five. With Haaland and Rodri in the starting lineup, there would be little reason to fear the remaining seven games. However, reinforcements are not coming, and if this is the level of performance the champions will display for the next month and a half, things could quickly unravel for them.
