Analyzing the key developments and patterns in the early phase of the 2025 Formula 1 world championship fight, as the season reaches its fifth race, the Miami Grand Prix.
Piastri Solidifies His Position at the Top
Just a week after his victory in Bahrain made him the bookmakers` favorite for the title, Oscar Piastri reinforced this new standing with a dominant performance culminating in victory over Max Verstappen in Saudi Arabia.
The Australian driver is currently in excellent form, having secured consecutive race wins for the first time in his F1 career – an achievement his teammate Lando Norris has not yet matched within a single season. Piastri has claimed victory in three of the last four races, recovering strongly since an early error in the Melbourne season opener cost him a potential second place.
Indeed, since his first Grand Prix win in Hungary last July, Piastri has impressively won five out of the last 17 races, surpassing both his teammate Norris and championship rival Verstappen in victories during that period.
The young driver`s increasing momentum and confidence throughout race weekends are clearly evident to both analysts and competitors.
As Martin Brundle of Sky Sports F1 wrote in his post-Jeddah column, `You`ll not find many people in and around F1 who think Max is anything other than the best driver on the grid right now.`
He added, `But Oscar Piastri at McLaren is learning fast, and despite being 163 race starts behind Verstappen and 82 F1 races behind Norris experience-wise, he`s now won 10 per cent of his 51 race starts and leads the world championship. And he`ll only get better.`
Verstappen himself commented after the race, praising the McLaren driver`s `very calm approach` and noting that he `delivers when he has to, barely makes mistakes`.
Key moments in Jeddah included his wheel-to-wheel battle with pole-sitter Verstappen into the critical first corner.
Piastri`s triumph in that initial duel, securing a better start from second place and successfully `winning` the corner against the challenging Red Bull, in an incident that later resulted in a penalty for Verstappen, left a strong impression.
Norris Returns to Site of First Win Needing Qualifying Improvement
As F1 visits the Miami International Autodrome for the fourth time, it marks the one-year anniversary of Lando Norris` first F1 victory. He achieved this milestone from fifth on the grid, finishing ahead of Verstappen in what was his 110th race start.
Returning to the `Magic City` will undoubtedly bring back special memories for Norris. However, he urgently needs a result that can shift his momentum back, especially after losing his early championship lead to Piastri following a challenging couple of weekends in the Middle East.
Norris`s area of traditional strength over his teammate – qualifying – is where he needs to find significant improvement quickly. Expensive single-lap errors in China, Bahrain, and particularly a crash in Saudi Arabia, have limited Norris to starting on the front row only twice this season.
His starting positions in the last two races were sixth and tenth.
Both Norris and the team have discussed the difficulties he`s faced in adapting his driving style to the specific characteristics of this year`s McLaren. Maximizing performance from the car on the limit during low-fuel qualifying runs has been a particular challenge.
After recovering to fourth place in Jeddah, Norris commented: `I just make life tough for myself, especially when it`s a race like that. It would have been much easier, a lot more chilled, just to drive at the front.`
`In some ways it`s a bit easier, so I`ve got to help myself out a little bit and have better Saturdays.`
Team principal Andrea Stella commented on Norris`s drive from tenth: `It was important for Lando`s morale. He showed his racecraft is absolutely brilliant and he said in the in-lap, `we just have to polish a little bit the Saturdays and we will have fun`.`
While a 10-point deficit to Piastri at this point isn`t critical, Norris, who was ahead of his teammate in Saudi until a difficult Saturday session impacted his race prospects, will be eager to regain ground swiftly.
Verstappen Remains a Significant Threat
The fact that a victory for Max Verstappen in Jeddah, instead of his eventual second place, would have seen him arrive in Miami as the championship leader over Piastri highlights why the reigning four-time champion is still a major challenge for the McLaren pair.
As Sky Sports F1`s Karun Chandhok noted on the F1 Show podcast, `We`re going to get an intra-McLaren battle with Verstappen looming large.`
`He is there ready to pounce and is the one maximising it at that Red Bull camp. You can`t discount him.`
With Verstappen only 12 points behind, McLaren and their drivers are keenly aware of the threat. Red Bull demonstrated genuine speed in Saudi Arabia and are expected to introduce a significant upgrade at the next European race in Imola.
While McLaren has downplayed the potential impact of upcoming front-wing deflection test rule changes on their car`s performance starting from round nine in Spain, Red Bull is likely hoping these changes will work to their advantage from June onwards.
Currently, the focus remains on maximizing race results, a skill few possess better than Verstappen. As long as he stays within roughly one race win`s worth of points (25) of the championship lead, he remains a very strong contender for his fifth consecutive title.
Was Saudi Arabia a One-Off for Mercedes and Russell, or a Pattern?
Was George Russell justified in expressing significant caution about his prospects in the F1 title battle this year, especially considering Mercedes` disappointing performance during the Saudi Arabian race?
Speaking just one week prior in Bahrain, after an impressive second-place finish between the McLarens secured his third podium in four races, Russell had cautioned: `I don`t expect this to continue for many races to come.`
However, only a week later in Jeddah, Mercedes` persistent issue from 2024 – significant tire wear in hot conditions – resurfaced dramatically on race day, leaving Russell in fifth place, 27 seconds behind Piastri at the finish line.
Team boss Toto Wolff acknowledged after the race, `Clearly our worst performance so far from the year.`
He added, `The pace just dropped away with a blistering tyre and overheating tyres, and so far we haven`t got the explanations.`
Miami is also forecast to be warm, and historically, this track hasn`t been one where Mercedes has consistently challenged at the front since its debut in 2022.
Consequently, this Sprint weekend in Miami represents another crucial early-season test for Mercedes` potential as a front-running contender in 2025.
Ferrari Needs to Find Momentum Soon
While it`s still early in the 24-race season to completely dismiss any potential title contenders, Ferrari and their prominent drivers must start closing the points gap to the leaders soon if they hope to mount a championship challenge.
Their highest-ranked driver, Charles Leclerc, is currently fifth in the standings, heading into Miami already 52 points adrift of Piastri – a gap equivalent to more than two race victories.
Although Leclerc lost 10 points due to disqualification from fifth place in China, his third-place finish in Jeddah remains the best result for Ferrari in a Grand Prix so far this season.
There have been moments in races where the SF-25 has appeared genuinely competitive, but consistent performance at the front has been difficult to achieve, especially in qualifying, which has hindered their race prospects on Sundays.
Lewis Hamilton is another 16 points further back in seventh position. The eight points he lost from the Chinese Grand Prix result mean he is currently even behind Mercedes rookie Kimi Antonelli.
Evidently, with such a significant early-season gap to the quick McLarens, things would need to change dramatically and quickly for Hamilton to even consider challenging for a record eighth title this year. However, he did state in Japan that winning the championship in his first year with Ferrari `wasn`t my expectation` anyway.
Nevertheless, the seven-time champion will undoubtedly hope for a more positive turn in his 2025 campaign soon, despite a somewhat foreboding prediction after his struggles in Saudi Arabia that `it`s going to be painful` all year in a Ferrari car he hasn`t yet fully mastered.
