The FIFA Club World Cup field has been reduced by half, and despite some unexpected results, the knockout stage features largely the teams anticipated before the tournament began. While Atletico Madrid`s early exit was surprising, Group B was always seen as potentially volatile with two European giants competing. Other notable results included Chelsea`s loss to Flamengo and Benfica defeating Bayern Munich. However, by the end of the group stage, only three UEFA representatives were eliminated, and the five richest clubs advanced. They are joined by Lionel Messi`s team and another capable of acquiring expensive Spanish players.
This tournament doesn`t appear to favor underdogs. Below are the remaining 16 teams, ranked by their perceived chances of winning the Club World Cup. This ranking is based on our assessment of their capabilities and form. It`s worth noting that team chances can be affected by draws, which were particularly tough for teams like Inter Miami. Here is the ranking:
1. Manchester City (+1)
The only team with a perfect group stage record. Manchester City have quickly integrated new players and are managing Rodri`s playing time wisely, suggesting he could be in peak condition for the new Premier League season. Pep Guardiola praised their performance after the 5-2 win over Juventus, stating it had been a long time since they performed so well with and without the ball. He noted the players` commitment and the feeling of being a good team again. With a favorable draw, they look like the team to beat.
2. Paris Saint-Germain (-1)
There`s very little separating PSG from the top spot. Perhaps the difference lies in the impression they gave off in their defeat to Botafogo. Having won the Champions League, they might seem like a team that has already reached its main goal and is less concerned about losses in the Club World Cup now that they have achieved what none of their predecessors did.
3. Real Madrid (–)
Evidently still developing compared to the teams ranked higher, Xabi Alonso`s side hasn`t faced a truly tough challenge yet. Their convincing win against Salzburg is promising, however, and based on recent results, Juventus shouldn`t pose a major threat, suggesting a favorable path to the semifinals. The key question is whether their system and optimal starting lineup will be settled by the time the semifinals begin.
4. Chelsea (+2)
Enzo Maresca`s side has not been particularly impressive throughout this competition and arguably deserved to lose to Flamengo. What they have had, however, is luck, particularly with Andreas Schjelderup`s goal securing Benfica top spot over Bayern Munich. This resulted in Chelsea landing in a more favorable part of the draw, even though both Benfica and the winner of Palmeiras vs. Botafogo could provide significant challenges. They are favorites to reach the semifinal, and from there, anything is possible.
5. Bayern Munich (-1)
Anyone who harbored doubts about Bayern`s quality at the end of the European season won`t have had those doubts dispelled by the Club World Cup. They comfortably beat a team they were expected to dominate but made hard work of opposition only slightly below their level. Their drop to second place might simply be due to missed opportunities, but there`s a real risk that such inefficiency could be punished by Flamengo.
6. Inter (-1)
The competitive tension visible between Inter and River Plate at the final whistle in Seattle highlighted a needle often missing at the Club World Cup. This competition feels like an opportunity for absolution for a club still bruised by near misses in Serie A and the Champions League. It`s possible, of course, that the demands of high-stakes games will catch up with Cristian Chivu`s side as the tournament progresses, especially given how difficult they made topping Group E for themselves.
7. Borussia Dortmund (–)
Dortmund have benefited from a kind draw, receiving a manageable tie against Monterrey as a reward for successfully navigating a very favorable Group F. Will this good fortune ultimately lead to the same outcome as in the 2024 Champions League – a comfortable defeat by Real Madrid, regardless of how well BVB plays? Probably.
8. Benfica (+1)
One of several teams in this competition that are difficult to fully assess after just three games. At the time, their 2-2 draw needing a comeback against Boca Juniors seemed underwhelming. Now that we know how tough South American opponents can be (especially Brazilian teams), does that result look more impressive? Did Benfica simply ride their luck against Bayern Munich? Perhaps, but if they manage to get past Chelsea, their credentials might need to be taken more seriously.
9. Fluminense (+7)
In our pre-tournament power rankings, we felt Fluminense lacked the attacking flair of the other Brazilian teams. What we underestimated was the strength of their defense; their allowed expected goals (xG) of 1.7 is bettered only by Bayern Munich. The draw has been kind to them, and it might continue to be, as they face a seemingly tired Inter side next. Their tie could be another candidate for an upset.
10. Palmeiras (+1)
Considering the high expectations we had for Palmeiras entering this competition, it`s hard to shake the feeling that they are the least impressive member of the Brazilian quartet so far. Still, they remain undefeated and have likely just been a bit unlucky in front of goal. If young talents Willian Estevao and Vitor Roque find their form, this could be the team to emerge from what we`re calling `Chelsea`s quadrant of favorability`.
11. Botafogo (+13)
After delivering the tournament`s most surprising result by beating PSG, Botafogo showed composure against Atletico Madrid. Needing to keep the margin of defeat below three goals is more complex than it sounds, and Fogo relied heavily on goalkeeper John Victor and their defense, both of whom have impressed. A solid defense is often key to tournament success, though averaging over two xG against per game is not ideal. Then again, it might be some time before Botafogo faces another team as good as those they met in the group stage (excluding the Seattle Sounders, of course).
12. Juventus (-2)
Talk about coming back down to earth with a thud. Perhaps the severity of their 5-2 loss to Manchester City, which followed convincing wins over Al-Ain and Wydad Casablanca, is somewhat mitigated by the six changes made by coach Igor Tudor, who was reluctant to criticize his players harshly since they had already qualified. Still, their failure to secure a draw means they face Real Madrid in the last 16. That is likely the end of their journey.
13. Flamengo (–)
This ranking feels unfairly low. Flamengo might have been the best of the Brazilian teams in this competition. Jorginho has been brilliant in midfield, and Gonzalo Plata was a thrilling breakout star in their win over Chelsea. The only problem is that this victory sent them into the more difficult side of the bracket, with a likely route to the final involving Bayern Munich, Paris Saint-Germain, and Real Madrid. Pulling off one more shock doesn`t seem beyond Filipe Luis and his team, but three appears highly improbable.
14. Monterrey (+8)
Former Guardiola assistant Domenec Torrent has made an immediate impact in the Monterrey dugout, remaining unbeaten in three games where his side proved incredibly resilient against more talented opponents like Inter and River Plate. From there, it was a matter of completing the task, which they did convincingly against Urawa Red Diamonds with a 4-0 win, removing any need to worry about results in other games.
15. Al-Hilal (–)
The Kobe Bryant speech Al-Hilal posted on social media after their 2-0 win speaks to the determined mindset of the Saudi giants heading into the knockout stages: `Job`s not finished.` The signing of Theo Hernandez is another move to provide Simone Inzaghi with as much talent as possible, and their draw with Real Madrid offers a glimmer of hope. Still, their upcoming meeting with Manchester City, loaded with geopolitical symbolism, is unlikely to go their way.
16. Inter Miami (+2)
Inter Miami might have the greatest player the game has ever seen on their side, but they are simply not expected to get past teams like Paris Saint-Germain, probably Bayern Munich, possibly Real Madrid, and then maybe Manchester City. No siree, their path looks incredibly challenging.
