This report examines significant sports news through the lens of betting markets, highlighting stories and trends impacting the sports betting industry. It covers various developments across different sports, focusing on how real-world events influence wagering activity and odds.
May 6: Stars and Jets Advance Against Long Odds
Two NHL teams, the Dallas Stars and Winnipeg Jets, pulled off remarkable comebacks in their Game 7s last weekend against the Colorado Avalanche and St. Louis Blues, respectively. Both teams overcame substantial live betting deficits to secure their spots in the second round.
At their most challenging points, Dallas faced live odds as high as +2000 against Colorado, while Winnipeg hit +2500 on the live betting line in the closing minutes of regulation against St. Louis. Entering the playoffs, Colorado was a slight favorite to win the Stanley Cup, while St. Louis was considered a long shot but posed a significant liability for some sportsbooks due to accumulated bets.
As a reward for their first-round resilience, the Stars and Jets now face each other. The Stars` path has seen volatility in their odds, initially becoming co-favorites after a trade but dropping after a losing streak. They have since rebounded and are now the favorite to win the Cup at +400 odds. Winnipeg, in contrast, has some of the longest remaining odds at +900, an interesting position given they finished the regular season strongly.
Bettors are largely siding with Dallas in the series, with the Stars attracting the majority of action. Following the weekend`s upsets, Dallas has also garnered the most bets and money to win the Stanley Cup among all remaining teams at major sportsbooks.
May 5: Golden State Warriors` Favoritism Streak Likely Ends
The Golden State Warriors are set to be underdogs in a playoff series for the first time under coach Steve Kerr. This change is expected to end their record streak of being favored in 27 consecutive playoff series since the 1976 ABA/NBA merger. Their upcoming Western Conference semifinal series against the Minnesota Timberwolves sees Golden State listed at +150 odds to win.
This marks their first time as series underdogs since the first round of the 2014 playoffs. Minnesota opened as -190 favorites for the series, with the odds slightly shifting to -175. The Timberwolves will aim to become the first team in recent history to eliminate both LeBron James and Stephen Curry in the same postseason. While Golden State won their regular season series 3-1, Timberwolves` midseason acquisition Jimmy Butler did not participate in those games.
Other notable NBA betting insights include the Cleveland Cavaliers remaining favorites in their series against the Indiana Pacers despite losing Game 1. Additionally, the Oklahoma City Thunder (-900) begin their series against the Denver Nuggets (+500) with a significant rest advantage of eight days, a factor that has historically favored teams strongly in head-to-head matchups.
April 30: Increased Betting Interest in Cleveland Browns Post-Draft
Despite having some of the longest odds for making the playoffs (10-1) and the lowest win total projection (4.5) among all NFL teams, bettors are showing a surprising amount of confidence in the Cleveland Browns after the recent NFL draft. Sportsbooks have reported an increase in betting interest on the team.
The Browns rank among the most bet-on teams for the Super Bowl at 200-1 odds and have attracted the most bets to win their division at some sportsbooks. This marks the first time since 2016 that the Browns are considered the biggest preseason long shots in the league. The team faces uncertainty at the quarterback position with multiple players competing for the starting role, including veteran Joe Flacco, Kenny Pickett, and rookies Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders.
Rookie quarterback Shedeur Sanders, in particular, is attracting significant wagering volume for the Offensive Rookie of the Year award, with odds as short as 15-1. He has become a notable liability for sportsbooks in this market.
April 29: Pennsylvania Joins Online Poker Liquidity Pact
American online poker saw increased liquidity this week as Pennsylvania joined the Multi-State Internet Gaming Agreement (MSIGA). This compact allows players in Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Michigan, Nevada, and Delaware to compete against each other for shared online poker prize pools.
Caesars Entertainment announced the expansion of its World Series of Poker (WSOP) platform into Pennsylvania, becoming the first operator to connect players from four states. This expansion is strategically timed ahead of poker`s busiest period, culminating with the World Series of Poker Main Event in Las Vegas. The online tournament schedule begins on May 31 and coincides with the live WSOP event, featuring events like a $250 buy-in tournament with a $1 million guaranteed prize pool. Players will even have the opportunity to participate in online tournaments while simultaneously competing in the live event.
This move, formalized by Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro signing the compact agreement, is expected to significantly increase the size of online prize pools available to players across the participating states.
April 24: Betting on Top Draft Picks: High Risk, Low Reward
The practice of betting large sums for small returns on highly predictable draft outcomes was highlighted recently. One bettor, for example, risked over $11,000 to win just $56 on quarterback Caleb Williams being the first overall pick in the NFL draft last year, facing extreme odds of -20000.
Betting markets on events like the NFL draft are known for their volatility and can feature extremely short odds when the outcome is perceived as highly probable. For instance, quarterback Cam Ward`s odds to be the No. 1 pick in the upcoming draft were as short as -50000 this week at some sportsbooks, requiring a $50,000 bet to profit $100. While major wagers at such short odds are not routine, sportsbooks acknowledge they do occur.
Bookmakers find these “information events” challenging to manage, setting odds that reflect a near-certain probability. However, bettors are sometimes drawn to the perceived surety of these outcomes. Despite the appeal of betting on heavy favorites, even seemingly `sure things` can result in losses, as one bettor experienced losing thousands on a college football favorite with -2800 odds. The key for such bettors is focusing on long-term returns and having the resilience to move past individual losses. The next potential `sure thing` bet generating buzz is Cooper Flagg for the No. 1 pick in the upcoming NBA draft.
