The Toronto Maple Leafs find themselves in a familiar situation as April begins. They have secured a playoff berth for the ninth consecutive season. Now, the team and its fans are hoping for a different outcome this time, aiming to overcome the playoff disappointments of recent years.
If the Maple Leafs secure the Atlantic Division title, they are likely to face the Ottawa Senators in the first round of the playoffs. While the Senators are a capable team, they are not considered to be at the same level as teams like the Tampa Bay Lightning or Florida Panthers, making the Maple Leafs the favorites in this potential matchup. Anything less than a series victory would be seen as a significant failure and would likely lead to substantial changes in the offseason.
Without progressing beyond the early playoff rounds, the core group of star players, including Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, John Tavares, William Nylander, and Morgan Rielly, will have played under three different coaches and systems without achieving meaningful playoff success.
The question remains: will head coach Craig Berube`s system be the key to unlocking playoff success by emphasizing scoring from high-traffic areas, or will the team`s offensive struggles and playoff frustrations persist?
Offensive and Goaltending Adjustments
Under previous coach Sheldon Keefe, the Maple Leafs were consistently strong during the regular season. Keefe recognized the reasons behind the team`s playoff shortcomings but struggled to get the top players to fully embrace necessary changes. Since taking over, Berube has implemented fundamental changes to the Leafs` style of play. Visually, their current approach features more aggressive forechecking, sustained puck possession in the offensive zone, and a greater emphasis on attacking the net front, contrasting with the fast-paced, skill-based, rush-oriented style that was previously characteristic of the team.
In past playoffs, the Maple Leafs have had trouble scoring because their offensive style was not suited to the type of goals typically scored in the postseason. Flashy passes and highlight-reel goals are less frequent in the playoffs, where success is more about getting to the inside, creating screens and deflections in front of the net, and scoring those so-called `greasy` or `garbage` goals.
The differences between Keefe`s and Berube`s systems are noticeable. The Maple Leafs are no longer dominating puck possession as they did under Keefe, and their games now tend to be lower-scoring. In Keefe`s last season (2023-24), Maple Leafs games averaged a total of 6.81 goals, compared to 6.19 under Berube. Last season, Toronto was ranked second in the league in goals per game (3.63) and scoring chances per game (18.09). Currently, they are ninth in goals per game (3.26) and 22nd in scoring chances (14.55), according to Stathletes data.
Berube has shifted the Maple Leafs to a more direct offensive style, focusing on forechecking, puck pursuit, and puck recovery. This approach resembles a dump-and-chase strategy, a significant departure from Keefe`s possession-based style. Toronto was a top-10 team in possession time under Keefe but ranks 20th under Berube. A key change is in how Toronto generates offense. Their rush chances have significantly decreased, from second in the NHL last season (17.5 per game) to 15th this season (14.5).
However, interestingly, Toronto is among the league leaders with over 90 breakaways, and William Nylander notably leads the NHL with 18 goals scored directly off the rush. Last season, only 7.7% of the Leafs` goals were scored on rebounds, ranking them last in the NHL. Under Berube, this has increased to 10% of their goals coming from rebounds, as per Stathletes.
Defensively, the changes have been significant. In Keefe`s final season, the Maple Leafs allowed 3.18 goals per game, with a team save percentage of .893. They averaged 32.5 shots for and 29.8 shots against per game. Under Berube, the Leafs average fewer shots for per game at 28.2, and shots against are similar at 29.3. The key improvement is that Toronto is conceding 7% fewer scoring chances per game under Berube due to a greater emphasis on defensive responsibility. Berube prefers to avoid a high-paced, back-and-forth style, and while Nylander still gets his breakaway opportunities, high-danger rush chances are less frequent. Last season, Toronto`s scoring chance differential was +2.11 per game, compared to -0.34 this season.
The Maple Leafs are now playing in tighter, more defensively oriented games, creating more favorable situations for their goaltenders. Anthony Stolarz is currently ranked fourth in the NHL in goals saved above expected (13.26), according to Stathletes. Toronto boasts the league`s best record in one-goal games, demonstrating their improved comfort level in close, defensive contests, which is crucial for playoff success.
Defensive Roster Construction
Berube`s coaching system is most effective with defensemen who prioritize physicality and defensive play. Maple Leafs General Manager Brad Treliving`s reshaping of the defensive unit aligns well with Berube`s preferred style. Treliving inherited Jake McCabe and added Chris Tanev, Brandon Carlo, Simon Benoit, and Oliver Ekman-Larsson to a defense corps already featuring Morgan Rielly.
Berube`s St. Louis Blues teams featured defensemen like Colton Parayko, Jay Bouwmeester, Joel Edmundson, Robert Bortuzzo, and Carl Gunnarsson. There are clear similarities between these players and the current Maple Leafs defensemen. They are generally big, physical players known for shot-blocking and a defensive mindset. The Maple Leafs may not get significant offensive contributions from their blue line, but they have become more defensively sound.
It is widely acknowledged that playoff hockey is a different game, rewarding toughness over pure skill. Increased physicality is tolerated, and minor penalties often go uncalled in the postseason. The Maple Leafs have historically struggled to draw penalties and have not consistently played a physically imposing game. The defensemen acquired by the team have a history of increasing their physical play in the playoffs and will contribute to the team`s toughness. Treliving and Berube clearly had a unified vision, and the team`s roster now reflects this play style, with one possible exception.
Perhaps the most significant parallel between Berube`s teams in St. Louis and Toronto is the relatively limited offensive output from their top defensemen, such as Rielly and, previously in St. Louis, Vince Dunn. Dunn, an offensively gifted defenseman, did not fully flourish until he joined the Seattle Kraken. Rielly`s reduced offensive production has been a frequent topic of discussion, and he appears to be the defenseman most affected by Berube`s system. Rielly excels in an offensive system that encourages defensive activation and rush offense, similar to Dunn`s role in Seattle and Rielly`s role under Keefe.
Dunn averaged less than 18 minutes of ice time per game under Berube in St. Louis. Since moving to Seattle, he has averaged over 22 minutes per game, and his offensive output has nearly doubled, from 102 points in 267 games with the Blues to 180 points in 268 games with the Kraken. In comparison, Rielly`s production has decreased from 202 points in 274 games under Keefe (0.74 points per game) to 35 points in 74 games under Berube (0.47). While Rielly may not be performing below his usual standards, there is evidence suggesting that Berube`s system may suppress the offensive contributions of defensemen.
Playoff Success: Will the System Translate?
One unpredictable factor is the so-called “curse” that seems to follow the Maple Leafs – an intangible element without statistical or logical explanation, similar to the historical curses that haunted the Boston Red Sox and Chicago Cubs before they achieved championship success. The Maple Leafs have a history of playoff disappointments.
Many observers have questioned whether the current core group of players has the necessary attributes to win in the playoffs. Berube`s system appears to be more conducive to playoff success. However, the Maple Leafs` recent playoff issues have not been primarily on defense; the main problem has been a lack of scoring.
Playoff hockey offers limited opportunities for a high-speed, back-and-forth game due to tighter checking and stricter officiating. The Maple Leafs` shift in playing style under Berube has better prepared them for the playoffs. A strong defensive foundation and an offense driven by a relentless forecheck that wears down opponents are more effective in the postseason. This style makes teams uncomfortable because it is more physically demanding; players handle the puck differently when they anticipate constant pressure and physical engagement along the boards.
For the Maple Leafs to achieve playoff success, three key elements are essential:
- Effective goaltending is crucial.
- They must maintain their improved defensive play.
- Their top offensive players need to generate more scoring opportunities in high-danger areas.
Throughout the season, the Maple Leafs have developed habits of strong forechecking, determined puck pursuit, and a commitment to defense. Now, it is about executing these principles consistently: battling for loose pucks, making the extra effort to clear the puck under pressure, winning net-front battles to score those crucial `ugly` goals, and completing the forecheck to fatigue their opponents. Playoff games will not be characterized by breakaways and odd-man rushes, which will be rare.
These essential habits have been instilled in the players since Berube`s arrival. It is now up to the players to demonstrate their ability to perform when it matters most in the playoffs.
