Ahead of the planned introduction of a second mandatory pit stop at the Monaco Grand Prix, Sky Sports F1 strategy expert Bernie Collins shares her insights on this new rule and its potential impact, particularly looking ahead to the 2025 event.
Understanding the New Two-Stop Rule
The core of the new regulation is the requirement for teams to use three distinct tire sets during the race, which effectively means drivers must make two pit stops. This is a change from the standard F1 rule, which typically only mandates using two tire compounds (usually a medium and a hard). That existing rule remains in place, and there is no requirement to use all three *types* of compounds provided for the weekend.
According to Collins, this rule change was implemented largely in response to situations like the one seen in a previous Monaco race (likely 2024 or 2023), where a red flag on the first lap allowed many drivers to pit early. Monaco`s unique layout makes it possible for drivers to manage their pace significantly, allowing tires to last almost the entire race. The difficulty of overtaking on the circuit, often requiring a pace advantage of around two and a half seconds, means drivers can comfortably conserve tires without being challenged. The new rule is designed to prevent a repeat of races where, after an early incident and subsequent pit stops under a red flag, the majority of the field completes the race without any further strategic interactions.
Collins suggests that while the future of the historic Monaco GP wasn`t necessarily under threat, last year`s uneventful race (in terms of strategy) did raise questions about the impact of red flags and reignited annual discussions about how to make the event a better spectacle.
She believes the primary challenge at Monaco remains qualifying, rather than the race itself. While it`s a historically significant track, she thinks changes to the cars, such as making them smaller and lighter, could contribute to more interesting racing. Discussions on improving the race are frequent, and this new rule represents an effort to try something different.
Potential for Increased Race Excitement
Collins predicts that if the race proceeds without safety cars, as was the case in 2021 and 2023, the mandatory two pit stops will add significant strategic interest during both required pit phases.
Drivers are generally cautious in Monaco because finishing is paramount for a good result, which tends to keep racing clean. The circuit also doesn`t lend itself to aggressive overtaking maneuvers, reducing the likelihood of incidents stemming from such attempts.
Historically, Monaco has been known as an `overcut` race. This is because cars behind a pitting driver often managed their pace, allowing the car staying out to gain time before its own stop, frequently resulting in the pitting car rejoining in traffic.
However, if the mandatory stops lead to cars pushing harder and less pace management, the traffic situation could change, potentially making the `undercut` (pitting before the car ahead to gain track position) a more viable strategy. The traditional overcut dominance was a result of traffic created by tire management and long stints; removing these factors might shift the strategic landscape.
Teams will need to be highly reactive to their competitors. Unlike other tracks where strategy relies heavily on historical data, this new rule creates a “clean sheet,” requiring teams to adapt their plans dynamically during the race.
Collins notes that, in theory and without traffic, a two-stop strategy would actually be faster in Monaco. The reason it wasn`t commonly used was the certainty of rejoining in traffic. With mandatory two stops, the overall race time might well be quicker.
Strategy, Pace, and Team Dynamics
One traditional reason for drivers maintaining a tight pack and managing tires in Monaco was to wait for a safety car period, offering a cheaper opportunity to pit.
Teams have often managed tires for about 10 laps to keep cars close, then pushed hard for another 10 laps to try and open a pit window and force strategic reactions from competitors.
A car emerging from the pits ahead will aim to build a two-second gap to the car behind to eliminate the threat of the undercut, giving them crucial reaction time. Drivers with the necessary pace would push harder around their pit window to achieve this gap.
Team tactics could involve one driver helping a teammate by creating a gap, especially if a driver starts out of position after qualifying. This is potentially more likely in the midfield, where one car might sacrifice a slim chance of points to assist its teammate.
While teammates often try to help, coordinating this with two mandatory stops adds complexity. Assisting during the first stop might compromise the helping car`s ability to assist or achieve a strong result during the second stop.
Collins emphasizes that timing pit stops relative to teammates and traffic is particularly risky in Monaco. She mentions a recent example (Oscar Piastri rejoining behind Yuki Tsunoda) highlighting how crucial it is to avoid rejoining behind slower cars, as the undercut becomes completely ineffective in that situation.
Who Benefits from the Mandatory Pit Stops?
Teams consistently performing fast pit stops will likely feel they have an advantage under this new rule. Ferrari, who currently lead the DHL Fastest Pit Stop Award standings this season, are mentioned in this context.
Additionally, teams with garages located at the very beginning or end of the pit lane in Monaco gain an advantage. Entry and exit are easier, especially when the pit lane is busy with multiple stops. Sauber, positioned at the very end, likely has the greatest positional benefit.
Collins explains that unless a safety car is deployed, top teams like Red Bull or McLaren pitting from leading positions might struggle to exit their box if the pit lane is full of other cars stopping.
In contrast, Sauber, being at the pit lane exit, should have a clear path down the lane, making rejoining the track less complicated. Nevertheless, teams with strong pit stop performance will feel they have an edge.
Regarding tire degradation, Collins doesn`t expect raw long-run pace to become significantly more important due to the rule, as tire management is so effective in Monaco. She believes the primary advantage will still rest with teams and drivers who can perform well in qualifying.
However, she acknowledges the uncertainty, admitting it`s possible, though difficult to imagine, that the rule could push drivers to perform at maximum pace for the entire race. If that scenario were to occur, she anticipates an increase in safety cars due to inevitable mistakes and lapses in concentration on the demanding street circuit. A race entirely without safety cars would become less likely.
Early Pit Stop Strategies
Attempting two very early pit stops without a safety car would be a high-risk strategy, according to Collins. While a single early stop might be considered (citing Esteban Ocon at Imola), pitting twice so soon without the neutralizing effect of a safety car is improbable.
However, if an early safety car period does occur, teams further down the grid (perhaps from 15th place or lower) might find it strategically beneficial to cycle through tires.
Collins gives a hypothetical example: a driver starting on medium tires in P15 under a lap 1 safety car might consider pitting immediately for softs, then again on lap 2 for hard tires to finish the race. She states she would attempt this gamble herself in that specific safety car situation because the safety car minimizes the time lost by the double stop. Without a safety car, losing the time for two pit stops so early would almost certainly lead to being lapped, making recovery extremely difficult.
Impact of Red Flags
Collins clarifies that the presence of multiple red flags during the race could still lead to a situation with minimal strategic pit stops made at racing speed, unless drivers stopped before the red flag. This is because the rule requires using three *sets* of tires, not necessarily making two *live* pit stops.
As demonstrated by the situation that likely prompted this rule, a red flag on lap one allows teams to change tires, fulfilling the requirement of using two sets (the initial set and the one fitted under the red flag). After such an early stop, only one more tire change would be needed. If another red flag occurred later in the race, drivers could potentially change tires again under that stoppage, fulfilling the three-set requirement without needing any further stops during green flag periods. Thus, multiple red flags could still result in a race with very few standard pit stops.
Pit Lane Congestion Under Safety Cars
Addressing concerns from figures like Ferrari team principal Fred Vasseur, Collins points out that pit lane congestion under a safety car is a common occurrence at the Monaco GP, as most cars typically pit simultaneously.
She doesn`t anticipate the new rule making the situation any worse than it normally is. The Monaco pit lane under a safety car is routinely chaotic.
The congestion is so predictable that teams have sometimes chosen to delay their safety car stop until lap two, accepting a smaller time gain for a less crowded pit lane. While teams have strategically waited to pit due to congestion, the mandatory two stops are not expected to exacerbate the typical pit lane chaos under a safety car in Monaco.
Potential for Broader Rule Implementation
Singapore is mentioned as another circuit where this mandatory two-stop rule might be considered for future implementation, and the recent Japanese Grand Prix is cited as a race that was strategically uneventful.
However, Collins believes that introducing softer tire compounds, as successfully demonstrated at Imola where they created more strategic uncertainty, might be a better approach to improve racing spectacle. She feels softer tires would have improved the recent Japan race, for example.
She considers softer compounds a potentially better direction for the sport but acknowledges the need to evaluate the outcome of the Monaco race with the new rule first. The race might indeed prove to be interesting with varied strategies as a result.
Collins also notes that the introduction of softer tire compounds might naturally mix up the racing in Monaco anyway. She personally states she would have preferred to see the impact of just the softer compounds on their own.
She concludes by referencing the Imola race again, highlighting that different tire choices led to an interesting event there even without enforcing additional stops. While reliability issues also played a part, the tire selection definitely had a significant impact on the strategy.
