2025 Stanley Cup Playoff Bracket Forecast

I confess that most of my preseason NHL predictions for 2024-25 were completely off: a collection of mistakes, flawed reasoning, and the bold (and incorrect) prediction that the Buffalo Sabres would reach the playoffs.

However, I did get one thing correct: the two teams I anticipated would compete in the Stanley Cup Final are indeed in the 2025 NHL postseason. After analyzing 82 games worth of data and results, I`ve reconsidered one of those picks, while sticking with the other – possibly to my own detriment, given their current situation.

Here’s my prediction for how the Stanley Cup playoffs will unfold, from the first round to the final game. I apologize in advance for any spoilers for the next couple of months, as this is obviously all destined to happen exactly as predicted, and none of these picks will be wrong.

Let`s all enjoy the excitement of the postseason together, whatever happens.

Eastern Conference First Round

A1 Toronto Maple Leafs
vs.

WC1 Ottawa Senators

I recall speaking with Brady Tkachuk before the 4 Nations Face-Off about the possibility of Ottawa facing Toronto in the playoffs for the first time since 2004, when the Maple Leafs won the Battle of Ontario for the fourth time in their playoff history.

`I think it would be fun and amazing,` he told me. `It doesn’t really matter who you play; it’s just about getting there and the process of getting there.`

I sensed Brady was holding back a bit to keep focused on a playoff spot the Senators were still pursuing. But you could feel his enthusiasm, especially when we discussed how much Ottawa fans would enjoy finally getting one over on their Original Six rivals.

Anyone who has seen Brady Tkachuk play knows he`ll rise to the occasion. This is his first Stanley Cup playoff experience as more than just a spectator watching his brother`s games, and his determination will be a factor in this series. However, he can`t do it alone, and the Senators` overall offense may not be enough to truly worry the Leafs. Ottawa ranked 22nd in expected goals per 60 minutes since the 4 Nations break.

To defeat Toronto, a team needs to instill fear and doubt. This was easy for a team like Boston, who seemed to get in their heads just by stepping onto the ice. But the Maple Leafs know the Senators aren`t on their level. They lack goal scorers like William Nylander (45) or Auston Matthews (33), or point producers like Mitch Marner (102 points) or John Tavares (74 in 75 games). Toronto should be confident that their defense, strengthened by the addition of Boston defender Brandon Carlo, will withstand Ottawa`s attack, provided goalies Anthony Stolarz and Joseph Woll perform well.

There`s only one person who could make the Leafs relive past playoff failures, and that’s Linus Ullmark.

Ullmark`s playoff record isn`t exactly impressive: 3-6 with a .887 save percentage, all with the Bruins. But Leafs fans are well aware of how opposing goalies have crushed their playoff dreams, most recently Sergei Bobrovsky of Florida in 2023. The likelihood of Ullmark being that guy is low based on his playoff history… but it`s the Leafs in the playoffs. Anything is possible.

Though maybe not in this round.

Prediction: Maple Leafs defeat Senators in five games.

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A2 Tampa Bay Lightning
vs.

A3 Florida Panthers

In my Stanley Cup playoff watchability rankings, the Dallas vs. Colorado series topped the list, due to compelling storylines like Mikko Rantanen`s revenge and Gabriel Landeskog`s comeback from injury. But close behind was the Battle of Florida. It`s the most captivating series in the Eastern Conference, a clash of rivals and potentially the path to the Stanley Cup Final for one team.

We haven`t yet seen the Panthers at full strength, meaning we haven`t witnessed the havoc a line of Brad Marchand, Sam Bennett, and Matthew Tkachuk can create. (Bolts players, consider earplugs.) Florida has been without Aaron Ekblad due to suspension. He can return in Game 3 against Tampa Bay.

The Panthers have proven their core is built for the postseason. Their key players possess the qualities teams seek at the trade deadline: clutch performance, defensive responsibility, and a knack for rising to the occasion. They defeated the Lightning in five games last season. However, I believe the Panthers` supporting cast has become slightly weaker, especially on defense, while the Lightning have improved year after year.

Was there a better low-profile offseason addition than the Lightning re-acquiring Ryan McDonagh? His veteran presence improved their 5-on-5 defense, turning a `mediocre` defensive team into the fourth-best in the NHL. Re-signing Yanni Gourde, a key player from their Stanley Cup wins, was also a smart move.

Besides those two, Jake Guentzel, who scored 41 goals alongside Brayden Point and Nikita Kucherov, is another difference-maker. He has an impressive 67 points in his last 69 playoff games. And Andrei Vasilevskiy is back to his Vezina Trophy-caliber form. He underperformed in the last two postseasons but appears ready to reclaim his status as the best playoff goalie since Martin Brodeur.

`Battle` might be an understatement for this series. Two potential Stanley Cup champions. Two fierce rivals, loaded with talent. A Panthers win wouldn`t surprise me. But I`m leaning towards the Bolts. As Coach Cooper recently said, many have written off their championship window. This series marks the start of their second act.

Prediction: Lightning defeat Panthers in seven games.

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M1 Washington Capitals
vs.

WC2 Montreal Canadiens

I covered the Canadiens` 2010 upset of the Capitals, a legacy often mentioned since this matchup was set. There are parallels: the top-seeded Capitals against the lowest-seeded Canadiens. Montreal even added a dynamic rookie late in both seasons: P.K. Subban then, Ivan Demidov now.

Neither Canadiens team was expected to challenge the powerful Capitals. Both entered the playoffs with negative goal differentials and low expectations. This latter point should worry the Capitals: a team with enthusiasm and no pressure can cause an upset.

But these Capitals are different from the 2010 team. Those Capitals were emotionally vulnerable, feeling pressure in their home arena. Doubts about their team and style led to a crisis when Montreal upset them in Game 7. It took years for Washington to regain their confidence.

These Capitals take their lead from coach Spencer Carbery, a smart and steadying influence, and Alex Ovechkin, who can still inspire his team with a single shot from his spot.

Despite their record, there`s disrespect towards the Capitals, from the lack of star power beyond Ovechkin to questions about their actual quality. But if they get solid goaltending – and hopefully Logan Thompson is healthy – Washington is fundamentally better than Montreal and should win. Congratulations to the Canadiens for gaining valuable experience and avoiding a complete collapse like other wild-card contenders.

Prediction: Capitals defeat Canadiens in five games.

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M2 Carolina Hurricanes
vs.

M3 New Jersey Devils

The Hurricanes are vulnerable.

Their 5-on-5 goaltending since the 4 Nations Face-Off ranks 23rd in the NHL, and their expected goals against per 60 minutes ranked 14th. They still possess Rod Brind`Amour`s team hallmarks: puck possession, a physical game, and a top-ranked penalty kill.

They also generate chances, leading the league in expected goals since 4 Nations. Their ninth-place ranking in actual 5-on-5 goals per 60 minutes highlights their finishing issues. This is why Carolina traded for Jake Guentzel and previously had Mikko Rantanen.

Brind`Amour`s teams often lack that crucial goal in key moments. This is why Carolina`s ceiling has been the conference finals. Management has tried to address this twice, but the Hurricanes enter this postseason without that veteran scoring solution.

Carolina`s vulnerability doesn`t guarantee a Devils victory. A playoff team should win four games in seven, but New Jersey has struggled to do so since December. Even before Jack Hughes` season-ending injury, they lacked long winning streaks. Inconsistency has defined them.

Could they upset? Possibly. Dougie Hamilton is healthy. Nico Hischier, Timo Meier, and Jesper Bratt have stepped up in Hughes` absence, keeping their power play strong. If Jacob Markstrom is above average for four games, they could win. But he`s often inconsistent.

This matchup is closer than perceived, but ultimately, the Devils will wonder what could have been with a healthy Jack Hughes.

Prediction: Hurricanes defeat Devils in six games.

Eastern Conference Second Round

A1 Toronto Maple Leafs
vs.

A2 Tampa Bay Lightning

As mentioned, defeating the Maple Leafs in the playoffs requires creating enough doubt for them to defeat themselves.

The Lightning are 1-1 in recent series against the Leafs. Andrei Vasilevskiy`s save percentage was below .900 in both. He will be the difference, leading Tampa Bay back to the conference finals for the first time since 2022, while Leafs fans worry about Mitch Marner`s free agency again.

Prediction: Lightning defeat Leafs in six games.

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M1 Washington Capitals
vs.

M2 Carolina Hurricanes

The Hurricanes falter in the conference semifinals, unable to find offense as the Capitals advance thanks to superior goaltending and a strong supporting cast. Home-ice advantage proves decisive in a close series, and Washington reaches the final four.

Prediction: Capitals defeat Hurricanes in seven games.

Eastern Conference Finals

M1 Washington Capitals
vs.

A2 Tampa Bay Lightning

Can a coaching matchup be the highlight of a playoff series? Spencer Carbery vs. Jon Cooper is a fascinating duel of hockey minds.

Ultimately, the Capitals can`t contain the Lightning`s top lines and fall short of sending Alex Ovechkin back to the Stanley Cup Final. Hopefully, he finds some comfort in his `greatest goal scorer` achievement from earlier this season.

Prediction: Lightning defeat Capitals in six games.

Western Conference First Round

C1 Winnipeg Jets
vs.

WC2 St. Louis Blues

The Presidents` Trophy Curse is real. Since 1985-86, only eight top regular-season teams have won the Stanley Cup. Seven lost in the first round. Since 2013-14, no Presidents` Trophy winner has reached the Stanley Cup Final.

Winnipeg`s mindset this season has been focused on playoff success, not just regular-season accolades. Past playoff failures against Vegas in 2023 and Colorado in 2024 have taught them that lesson.

`We`re not getting carried away because we know what happened last year,` said coach Scott Arniel. `The Stanley Cup isn`t awarded in November.`

Due to the Curse and the Jets` playoff history, some might pick the Blues for an upset. St. Louis`s strong streak after the 4 Nations Face-Off makes them a threat. They were offensively and defensively strong during that period.

However, I don`t see it happening.

The Jets have two key advantages. First, their league-leading power play (28.9%) against the Blues` 28th-ranked penalty kill (74.2%). While Winnipeg will miss Nikolaj Ehlers on the power play, their special teams advantage is still significant.

Second, Connor Hellebuyck, likely to win his second Vezina Trophy, is superior to Jordan Binnington. While Binnington performed well for Team Canada, he`s not Hellebuyck.

Hellebuyck led the NHL in key goalie stats and is determined to prove his `best in the world` status in the playoffs.

Betalytics gives the Jets a 59% chance of winning. If Hellebuyck underperforms, it drops to 50.8% for St. Louis. His performance is crucial.

Despite the Blues` strong late-season surge, their high shooting percentage during that streak may not be sustainable. Give me the goalie, the power play, and the Jets` desire to avoid another playoff disappointment.

Prediction: Jets defeat Blues in five games.

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C2 Dallas Stars
vs.

C3 Colorado Avalanche

I picked the Stars to win the Stanley Cup preseason. I`m sticking with that pick, despite current doubts.

The Stars are missing top defenseman Miro Heiskanen against a team with Nathan MacKinnon. Heiskanen may miss the entire first round, and Jason Robertson is also injured. Not ideal!

Dallas entered the playoffs winless in seven games, being outscored 34-18. Very not ideal!

I`m still backing the Stars based on my initial prediction, hoping for a quick recovery and strong goaltending from Jake Oettinger. This series could be the Mikko Rantanen Revenge Series.

The Avalanche traded Rantanen after contract disagreements, acquiring Martin Necas. Rantanen then signed with Dallas and now faces his former team.

However, the biggest storyline is Gabriel Landeskog`s return for Colorado after being injured since June 2022. His return provides a huge emotional boost.

Colorado has significantly reshaped their team, including acquiring Mackenzie Blackwood, Martin Necas, Brock Nelson, Ryan Lindgren, and Charlie Coyle. They have a strong core with MacKinnon and Cale Makar.

The winner of this series might win the Stanley Cup. And since I have Dallas winning the Cup…

Despite current concerns, I`m sticking with my pick. Ignore this illogical prediction at your own risk.

Prediction: Stars defeat Avalanche in seven games.

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P1 Vegas Golden Knights
vs.

WC1 Minnesota Wild

Someone familiar with the Wild team responded with `LOL` when asked about Minnesota`s upset chances against Vegas.

Minnesota is finally healthy with the return of Kirill Kaprizov and Joel Eriksson Ek. Morale is high after clinching a playoff spot. Maybe Marc-Andre Fleury will even face the Golden Knights.

The Wild were 29-17-4 before Kaprizov`s injury and briefly challenged Winnipeg for the conference lead. Do they have a chance against Vegas?

The Golden Knights are very strong. Sixth in expected goals percentage at 5-on-5 (52.51%). Fifth in offense and third in defense. They`ve overcome injuries to key players and will be healthy for Game 1, including Jack Eichel and Alex Pietrangelo. They have depth and proven playoff performers, and a strong defense in front of Adin Hill.

In short: congrats to the Wild for making the playoffs.

Prediction: Vegas defeats Minnesota in five games.

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P2 Los Angeles Kings
vs.

P3 Edmonton Oilers

Beating a team four times in a row is difficult. Eventually, luck changes. Eventually, the losing team finds a way to overcome their rivals.

The Buffalo Bills likely thought this before facing the Kansas City Chiefs for the fourth time in five seasons – and lost again. One team has Patrick Mahomes, the other doesn`t.

The Kings have lost to the Oilers in three straight opening-round series and now face them for a fourth. Edmonton is favored, but some believe the Kings are well-positioned due to home ice and a strong defense (second in goals-against average at 2.48). Darcy Kuemper might be the best goalie Edmonton has faced in this matchup.

But like the Bills lacking Mahomes, the Kings lack Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl.

McDavid`s point-per-game average is slightly down this season due to injury. Draisaitl led the NHL in goals but has been injured recently.

However, McDavid averages two points per game in 18 playoff games against Los Angeles. Draisaitl has 17 goals in those games. They dominate the Kings.

Despite the Kings` strong defense and veterans, and the Oilers` weaknesses (supporting cast attrition, injured Mattias Ekholm, questionable goaltending), Edmonton has McDavid and Draisaitl. That will be enough for a fourth straight first-round win.

Prediction: Oilers defeat Kings in six games.

Western Conference Second Round

C1 Winnipeg Jets
vs.

C2 Dallas Stars

I believe there`s a universe where the Jets and Maple Leafs play in an all-Canadian Stanley Cup Final. The Jets` potential is that high.

But if the Stars overcome the Avalanche, they`ll be stronger and advance to their third straight conference finals.

Prediction: Stars defeat Jets in six games.

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P1 Vegas Golden Knights
vs.

P3 Edmonton Oilers

The only playoff series between these teams was in 2023, which Vegas won en route to the Stanley Cup.

Unless the Oilers improve defensively, they don`t match Vegas`s depth. Vegas wins, ending Edmonton`s Cup hopes.

Prediction: Golden Knights defeat Oilers in six games.

Western Conference Finals

P1 Vegas Golden Knights
vs.

C2 Dallas Stars

This is the fourth playoff meeting between these teams. Dallas won in the 2020 conference finals and 2024 first round, while Vegas won the 2023 conference finals before winning the Cup.

This series will be intense between two deep, talented teams. Can Dallas`s defense handle Vegas`s physicality? Dallas needs Thomas Harley`s speed and hopes Oettinger outplays Vegas`s goalies.

Prediction: Stars defeat Golden Knights in six games.

Stanley Cup Final

C2 Dallas Stars
vs.

A2 Tampa Bay Lightning

The Stars get healthy and combine veteran hunger with young talent to complete their championship journey.

After a strong season, the Lightning settle for Stanley Cup Final runner-up again.

It will be a great series with stars on both teams. Oettinger wins the Conn Smythe Trophy. Dallas wins Game 7 and the Stanley Cup for the first time since 1999, reversing the 2020 Final result against the Lightning.

Prediction: Stars win in seven games over the Lightning.