The NHL draft frequently yields valuable players discovered in the later rounds. Despite enhanced scouting and analytics leading teams to identify promising prospects earlier, a few “diamonds in the rough” inevitably emerge from the later selections.
While finding superstar talent like Pavel Datsyuk or Henrik Lundqvist in the late rounds is now uncommon, smaller, skilled players often remain available deeper in the draft. Lane Hutson, selected 62nd overall in 2022, serves as a recent example of a highly impactful player who arguably deserved to be picked much sooner.
Recent examples of successful late-round picks include Troy Terry (148th, 2015), Andrew Mangiapane (166th, 2015), Jesper Bratt (162nd, 2016), Brandon Hagel (159th, 2016), and Mark Stone (178th, 2010). Each faced pre-draft concerns (size, skating, NHL translatability) but significantly surpassed expectations, even representing their countries internationally. This demonstrates that a player`s draft position isn`t a definitive predictor of their career; later picks simply need to work harder to earn opportunities.
A common thread among successful late-round picks is their elite proficiency in at least one specific area, or as one NHL executive described it, they possess a “separating skill” that distinguishes them from other players.
In the current draft class, several players possess the potential to become these valuable “diamonds in the rough.” Statistically, players drafted after the third round (pick 96) have less than a 3% chance of playing 200 NHL games, meaning perhaps only four or five will make it. The likelihood of such a player becoming a true “impact player” (excluding goalies) is even lower, below 1.5%. While these odds are low, the risk is often worth it, and a few players in this class exhibit the distinct “separating skills” that enhance their chances.
Cameron Schmidt, RW, Vancouver Giants (WHL)
Cameron Schmidt`s public draft rankings are generally higher than how NHL teams view him. Many scouts anticipate he`ll be selected in rounds three to five, primarily due to his smaller stature at 5-foot-7.
However, Schmidt offers an exciting potential ceiling as a second-line scoring winger, similar to Alex Debrincat. While teams are understandably cautious drafting small players early due to the rarity of success below 5-9, Schmidt compensates with elite speed and an exceptional shot – possessing more than one key “separating skill.” Some scouts believe his potential draft position could be 10-15 overall if he were taller (6-1).
Scoring 40 goals in 61 games highlights his status as one of the draft`s top goal-scorers. He can finish in various ways: off the rush, one-timers, net-front, and a powerful catch-and-release. With his separating speed and versatility, he`s highly likely to be a leading scorer in the CHL over the next couple of seasons.
Alex Debrincat is 5-8. If Schmidt reaches that height or 5-9, he has a genuine chance to become a consistent NHL goal-scorer. Instead of prioritizing size, drafting a highly skilled player with the potential for growth could be very beneficial for a team.
Jacob Rombach, D, Lincoln Stars (USHL)
Standing nearly 6-7 with potentially punishing physical attributes, Rombach could develop into an attractive shutdown defenseman for NHL teams. While he currently lacks the offensive flair often sought in top defenders, he has a realistic path to becoming a solid No. 4 or 5 defenseman in the league.
Defensively, Rombach possesses one of the draft`s most comprehensive toolkits, which is expected to refine over time. His puck retrieval skills are impressive; he scans for threats, effectively escapes pressure, uses head fakes on forecheckers, and makes simple, effective passes when openings arise.
When defending, he leverages his large frame to disrupt rushes, pin players along the boards, and make it difficult for opponents to cycle the puck. Notably, he doesn`t overly rely on brute physicality, which scouts appreciate as it prevents him from being caught out of position chasing big hits. Instead, he closes gaps effectively across the ice, using a strong stick to smother opponents, forcing turnovers or dump-ins.
Should his skating and physicality develop further, Rombach has the potential to be an effective shutdown defender capable of penalty killing and taking on secondary matchups.
David Bedkowski, D, Oshawa Generals (OHL)
Bedkowski appeals to traditional hockey minds due to his love for physicality. He`s a throwback player who embraces the rough side of the game. As a menacing defenseman at nearly 6-5 and 215 pounds, he stands out as the most punishing defender in the draft class. While physicality alone doesn`t guarantee NHL success, the Florida Panthers` recent success might encourage teams to consider Bedkowski`s potential to combine effective transition defense with significant physical imposition.
He is one of the draft`s best at preventing clean zone entries, and if he improves his timing for stepping up to make contact, he has a clear path to becoming a reliable bottom-pair defenseman.
His ceiling might not project him as a top-four defenseman, but teams require depth and physical presence to succeed in the playoffs. Bedkowski could develop into a player capable of consistently providing that necessary element.
Viktor Klingsell, LW, Skelleftea AIK (J20)
Another potential late-round steal is Viktor Klingsell, who impressed at the world under-18 championships. While his production level in Sweden wasn`t as high as Jesper Bratt`s at a similar stage, he notably outperformed Bratt when playing against players his own age. Given the similarities in height, high-end playmaking, and vision, it`s understandable that some see Klingsell as a potential “Bratt lite” in the NHL. He currently lacks physicality, which is unsurprising given his stature, but his offensive instincts and toolkit are among the best available among European prospects.
His main drawback is his pace, giving him a boom-or-bust profile. If he reaches his potential, he could become a second-line offensive facilitator capable of 50-plus assists annually. If not, he`s likely to be a very good SHL player. This is precisely the kind of high-upside swing teams take in later rounds, especially when the primary concern is speed. Developing skating and speed is often considered more achievable than finding a player with natural offensive instincts and playmaking ability like Klingsell possesses.
Filip Ekberg, LW, Ottawa 67`s (OHL)
Filip Ekberg, another Swede, presents as a dual-threat forward with the potential to significantly reward a drafting team. The first half of his season was hindered by illness and a limited role. However, his performance surged in the new year, culminating in an exceptional showing at the U18s where he tallied 18 points in seven games and earned an invitation to Sweden`s World Junior summer camp.
There are strong indicators that Ekberg is on the verge of a significant scoring breakthrough in the OHL, which would elevate his potential projection to a middle-six scorer at the NHL level.
Ekberg is a well-rounded forward who anticipates play, reads the game effectively, facilitates offense, and possesses an excellent catch-and-release shot. He lacks the inherent dynamism some scouts prefer but demonstrated legitimate flashes of his ability when healthy at the U18s. If he can improve his skating, he exhibits all the characteristics of a smaller player capable of succeeding in a secondary scoring and power-play role in the NHL.
Aidan Lane, RW, Saint Andrew`s College / Brampton Steelheads (OHL)
Aidan Lane`s potential NHL trajectory is largely thanks to his strong performance at the end of the OHL season. A CHL/NCAA rule change allowed the Saint Andrew`s College graduate to play 13 games for Brampton, where he impressively averaged a point per game.
Projecting prep school players is challenging due to the limited sample size. However, the high-motor winger looked completely at home in a top-six role for Brampton. He has the potential to develop into a bottom-six power winger in the NHL, utilizing his strength, physicality, and ability to generate offense.
He was effective in transition, capable of drawing defenders and making positive plays. He also used his physical attributes to overpower experienced OHL players. Lane possesses the drive, physical tools, and displayed promising offensive abilities, making him a potentially high-value pick after the fourth round. Improving his speed and explosiveness will be necessary for him to effectively use his tools for forechecking and creating secondary offense at the NHL level.
His decision to play NCAA hockey at Harvard provides ample time for development against strong amateur competition.
L.J. Mooney, RW, USNTDP (USHL)
Another diminutive winger, L.J. Mooney, is a personal favorite in this draft class. He`s a dynamic skater whose puck-handling skills are exciting to watch. At 5-foot-7, his possession of multiple “separating skills” should be sufficient for a team to take a chance on him in the middle rounds.
He`s a relentless player who constantly draws attention. His blistering speed is immediately evident, particularly when combined with his fantastic puck skills, offering real potential for him to become a transition headache for opposing defensemen. For this to fully materialize, Mooney needs to improve his ability to facilitate offense and read the game. He must better utilize his elite skating and puck skills to attack the middle of the ice and generate high-danger scoring opportunities.
Given his size and questions about his playmaking, he leans towards a boom-or-bust profile. However, many players with his level of skill lack the motor and competitive drive. Mooney leaves no doubt about his willingness to compete, shown through his fearless play, consistent pace, and dedication to playing effectively on both sides of the puck.
If a team holds multiple second or third-round picks and is seeking a dynamic skater who could potentially become a legitimate contributor – mentioning teams like the Philadelphia Flyers, Montreal Canadiens, and Detroit Red Wings as examples – Mooney is definitely worth considering.
